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Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 13
Treasury Budget, August (2:00): -$40.0B expected and -$76.6B prior
September 14
Current Account, Q2 (8:30): -$158.7B expected and -$144.9B prior
Retail Sales, August (8:30): -0.1% expected and 0.7% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior
September 15
Business Inventories, July (8:30): 0.7% expected and 0.9% prior
NY Empire State Index, September (8:30): 20.0 expected and 12.6 prior
Industrial Production, August (9:15): 0.5% expected and 0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (9:15): 77.4% expected and 77.1% prior
September 16
CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 09/11 (8:30): 346K expected and 319K prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (12:00): 25.0 expected and 28.5 prior
September 17
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary., September (9:45): 97.0 expected and 95.9 prior
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: HANS; JNPR; NTMD; RAE; SBAC; WITS
Thursday night play results:
RAE: Solid volume break higher.
SYMM: Edged higher on strong trade, but no serious continuation fob he break higher.
ACDO: Doji below the 18 day EMA on low volume. Has filled gap and run out of gas.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BEN (Franklin Resources--$55.01; +1.47; optionable): Asset Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/ben.html
After Hours: $55.05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. The financials have held up very well, and BEN looks super. An 8 month base sporting excellent 10 to 4 accumulation (10 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers and has set up a nice foundation for the breakout. Can give us a nice gain on a run back up to the high in the pattern. That is our initial target; if it is rallying hard we will take some gain and let some run.
Volume: 769.2K Avg Volume: 791.595K
BUY POINT: $55.24 Volume=1M Target=$60 Stop=$53.97
POSITION: BEN AK - Jan. $55c (55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ben.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
SPLS (Staples--$30; +0.6; optionable): Discount office products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spls.html
After Hours: $29.94
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. SPLS has formed a base on base pattern, the most recent a 12 week base formed over the 200 day SMA (27.05), using that as support for the 'head'. This follows a double bottom base in the spring. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation in the current base, showing more buyers moving in as it consolidated. Friday volume surged above average as SPLS started the breakout move. A solid stock nearing an all-time high.
Volume: 3.936M Avg Volume: 3.093M
BUY POINT: $30.18 Volume=4.9M Target=$34 Stop=$29.21
POSITION: PLQ AF - Jan. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spls.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
WIND (Wind River Systems--$11.82; +0.76; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wind.html
After Hours: $11.79
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Software has really come around the past four months, and WIND has used that time to form a very nice 22 week base that used the 200 day SMA (9.69), a key support level, as the bottom for the two legs. Accumulation is a strong 6 to 3 and money flow is surging higher ahead of the stock. Friday volume surged and WIND jumped out of its 3 week handle. It looks ready to follow the money higher.
Volume: 1.101M Avg Volume: 668.243K
BUY POINT: $11.97 Volume=973K Target=$14.25 Stop=$11.13
POSITION: QWV BB - Feb. $10c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/wind.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
AAP (Advance Auto Parts--$36.22; -0.55; optionable): Auto parts stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aap.html
STATUS: Put. AAP rallied up to the 50 day EMA (37.59) in the recent rally, but unlike the indexes and other key stocks, it was unable to break through. It rolled lower to end the week, tapping some support at 36 on the low. Weak money flow and under distribution. Looking for it to crack below the support for a nice 52%ish gain to the target.
Volume: 1.047M Avg Volume: 849.056K
BUY POINT: $35.97 Volume=852K Target=$34.45 Stop=$36.15
POSITION: AAP VG - Oct. $35p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aap.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GMAI, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
EBAY: Surged to end the session Friday, and that move leaves it right at the breakout point from another handle that formed just below the June high. A volume move through 90.50 is another buy point.
JNPR: Strong move Friday and now at the July highs. Want to see it move on through this level and then hold 25 on a test.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
AME: Volume surge Friday as AME came off of the 50 day EMA in a short 8 week double bottom. Moving to an all-time high on a breakout.
Downside:
QLTI: Coming back up to test the 18 day EMA, the resistance level in its downtrend that started in May.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet.
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address: http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AH 09/08 DB hdl 36.82 +0.03 37.58 42.75 247K 1M 36.45
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
AVL 09/07 Cup 21.4 -0.06 21.52 24.68 99K 175K 20.97
Buy Not Issued. Now it has made the test of the breakout & has filled the gap on low volume. Looks ready to resume the move.
BEAV 08/10 Test BO 11.52 +0.03 10.29 12.38 187K 600K 11.07
Current. Continue with uptrend on low volume.
BGC 08/07 Cup hdl 10.89 +0.02 10.29 12.38 138K 581K 10.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
CHTT 08/27 Cup 32.13 +0.26 30.35 34.72 95K 258K 30.98
Current. Continue with uptrend making a 52 week high on lower, below average volume.
CRXL 09/02 Rolling 8.06 +0.02 8.24 9.65 52K 200K 7.89
Buy Not Hit. Making lateral move on lower, below average volume.
CTV 08/26 DB hdl 21.19 -0.11 21.45 24.72 549K 994K 20.89
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on lower, but average volume. Still in uptrend.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 20.81 -0.04 20.39 24.22 115K 400K 20.18
Current. Tapped 20.29 at the low and rallied back on very low volume as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
DECK 08/18 Asc Tri 33.1 +0.64 31.54 36.55 174K 550K 31.25
Current. Moving up on very low volume after testing the 10 day MVA. In good shape.
DKS 09/01 Rv H&S 33.5 +0.48 33.44 38.24 421K 1.1M 32.31
Current. Tapped 32.59 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
DO 08/31 Cup hdl 27.93 -0.25 25.48 29 2.2M 1.3M 27.15
Current. Tapped 28.48 at the high, but gave some of it back showing a doji on lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend.
DOVP 08/28 Cup hdl 15.41 +0.01 16.22 19 48K 447K 15.89
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 15.17 at the low and rallied back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on very low volume. making a lateral move.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 90.07 +2.16 88.05 99.94 9M 14M 87.44
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, but below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 90.07 +2.16 71.78 82.25 9M 10M 87.45
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 90.07 +2.16 34.72 46 9M 12M 84.75
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 90.07 +2.16 31.22 46 9M 12M 84.75
Current.
ECIL 08/28 Cup hdl 7.24 +0.19 7.38 8.88 244K 450K 6.86
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 6.90 at the low and rallied back for a nice gain on rising, but average volume. Holding at some resistance here. Looking good.
ELGX 08/26 Cup hdl 6.2 +0.06 6.38 7.65 37K 120K 5.93
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 6.07 at the low and rallied back on low volume. Still in the pattern.
EXPD 08/24 DB hdl 49.75 -0.24 50.25 56.75 354K 850K 49.32
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday on lower, below average volume. In good shape.
FMC 08/21 DB hdl 47 -0.49 45.49 50.95 446K 397K 46.24
Current. Tapped 46.05 at the low and made a fierce rally on much stronger above average volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
HANS 09/01 Cup hdl 28.48 +2.09 26.12 30 497K 550K 26.95
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied for a great move on stronger above average volume.
IDEV 08/30 DB hdl 6.84 -0.12 7.24 8.69 367K 1.2M 6.96
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding just below the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in the pattern.
IGL 08/02 Cup hdl 16.69 +0.13 14.12 16.88 936K 1.6M 15.94
Current. Continue with uptrend on rising, but below average volume.
INSP 08/18 Cup 42.25 +0.62 38.38 43.55 710K 1.5M 40.12
Current. Continue with uptrend on low volume.
JNPR 09/01 Dbl btm 24.92 +0.88 23.42 26.62 7.6M 12M 23.97
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
LEG 07/29 Flat 28.02 -0.14 28.59 32 450K 900K 27.97
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 27.66.
LIZ 08/31 Test BO 38.92 +0.36 39.14 43.25 1M 881K 38.38
Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on stronger above average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
LLL 09/04 Cup hdl 64.3 +0.56 64.41 72.45 478K 1.2M 62.97
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Looking good.
LSS 09/08 Cup hdl 34.38 -0.41 34 39 540K 759K 33.88
Current. Pullback on lower, but average volume. Still in uptrend.
MEE 09/04 DB hdl 27.63 -0.87 29.48 33.55 1.8M 1.6M 27.98
Exited. Gapped down to open below the 18 day MVA and continued to move down on lower, but still very strong volume.
NTMD 09/07 Pennant 20.27 +1.27 20.28 24.38 2.1M 1.8M 19.38
Entered today. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a great move on excellent volume surge.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.8 -0.02 27.05 31 238K 475K 26.38
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
OCAS 08/31 Asc Tri 20.55 -0.18 20.12 23.12 141K 358K 20.32
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
PETD 08/31 Rv H&S 36.26 +0.21 33.39 37.35 505K 383K 34.98
Current. Tapped 35.09 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on lower, but still very strong volume. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA.
PMTC 09/01 DB hdl 5.15 +0.23 5.22 6.35 825K 1.9M 4.88
Buy Not Issued. Started the breakout move but forgot the volume. New buy point but needs to show the strong trade as it continues.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 35.35 +0.16 35.72 41.74 399K 650K 34.65
Buy Not Issued. Still solid. Forming a nice handle here, & we moved
up the buy point to allow for that handle and a new
breakout point.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 39.49 -0.16 38.82 45 13M 11M 37.98
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 39.49 -0.16 35.42 40.48 13M 11M 37.98
Current.
RAE 09/09 DB hdl 6.14 +0.15 6.12 7.42 1M 486K 5.92
Entered today. Tapped 5.85 at the low and rallied back for a great move on excellent volume surge. Did come off the high of 6.30.
ROK 08/03 Asc Tri 39 -0.62 38.08 43.95 900K 1.3M 38.75
Current. Thudded down tapping 38.36 at the low and made a fierce rally back holding the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 8.1 +0.21 7.04 8.54 1.9M 1.5M 7.68
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice move making a 52 week high on stronger above average volume.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 6 +0.48 5.88 7 1.2M 635K 5.68
Entered today. Explosive move on lower, but very strong volume.
SERO 08/19 Cup hdl 22.75 +0.24 21.47 25.45 392K 538K 21.98
Current. Continue with uptrend on much lower, but still above average volume.
SKX 09/02 Asc Tri 14.55 +0.15 14.28 17 367K 270K 13.88
Current. Continue with uptrend for a nice gain on lower, but still strong volume.
SYMM 09/09 Dbl btm 9.53 +0.03 9.62 11.55 620K 337K 9.25
Buy Not Hit. Continue with uptrend on strong volume. Looking very good.
TKLC 09/02 Cup 19.26 +0.24 19.28 23 575K 1M 18.38
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern. Volume will need to increase before we will enter the play.
TV 08/10 Cup hdl 47.8 -0.12 47.48 53.88 315K 561K 47.35
Current. Not moving after the break higher. Needs to start
higher this week or we will close it.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 39.95 +0.48 39.58 43.45 448K 735K 38.46
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Holding at some resistance.
WITS 08/21 Flat 15.39 +0.49 14.76 17.48 1.4M 459K 14.85
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume.
YUM 08/21 DB hdl 40.91 +0.3 39.69 44 1M 1.4M 39.98
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but average volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAI 09/08 Put 11.61 +0.56 11.15 9.88 2.2M 1.4M 11.42
Current. Moving up holding the 18 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume. Needs to hold here.
ACDO 09/09 Put 24.49 -0.11 23.88 21.75 1.2M 1.1M 24.22
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move just under the 18 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
ANN 08/30 Put 25.18 +1.09 24.15 22.57 2.3M 1.2M 23.88
Current. Gapped up at the open and rallied testing the 50 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain on strong volume. May test resistance at 25.30
PXLW 09/04 Put 9.78 +0.03 9.45 8 873K 1.4M 9.78
Current. Making lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
VSH 09/04 Put 13.7 +1.08 12.23 11.08 4.9M 2.5M 12.32
Exited. Rallied on very strong volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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