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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: CREE; RAE; SCSC
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$56.76; -0.11; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another look at BCR as it is now setting up a better entry point as it eases back to test the 18 day EMA (55.62) and form a handle to its 14 week base. Friday it tapped toward the 18 day on the low and rebounded for a marginal loss. Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the base is setting up the breakout just as is the handle. Excellent money flow to go along with the solid accumulation. Looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 360.5K Avg Volume: 646.44K
BUY POINT: $57.72 Volume=950K Target=$64 Stop=$56.12
POSITION: BCR AY - Jan. $57.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$33.6; +2.97; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
After Hours: $33.69
STATUS: Breakout. We took some gain on URBN, looking for it to make its test. It sold on stronger volume to the 18 day EMA (30.73) Thursday, looking a bit shaky. Friday it exploded off of that level, however, as apparel retailers enjoyed renewed life. A very nice 11 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation. Looking to move in on a further gain on solid trade.
Volume: 3.426M Avg Volume: 1.505M
BUY POINT: $33.82 Volume=1.8M Target=$39.78 Stop=$31.98
POSITION: URQ LZ - Dec. $32.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
AGN (Allergan--$73.90; -1.25; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Put. AGN rallied to the 50 day EMA (76.32) with the market, but it was one of the stocks that was unable to make the breakthrough. It stalled and faded, then Friday it broke below the 18 day EMA (74.29) on the strongest volume in three weeks. Weak money flow is leading lower. Looking for a slide lower to deliver a solid 40%ish gain.
Volume: 822.2K Avg Volume: 853.635K
BUY POINT: $73.73 Volume=950K Target=$71.48 Stop=$74.38
POSITION: AGN VO - Oct. $75p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/agn.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$27; -0.09; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues to work on the 3 week handle, moving laterally over the 18 day EMA (26.79) on very low volume and in a tight range. Surging money flow and strong 7 to 4 accumulation in its 32 week base. Waiting for the volume breakout move as the stock follows the money.
Volume: 83.895K Avg Volume: 145.745K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Continues up the 10 day EMA.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Researching next possible date.
MBT: No announcement with earnings. Solid move and researching the next potential date.
MIK: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
RL: Forecast 9-13-04 at a board meeting.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
TTC: Forecast 9-21-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
WWY: Still researching the exact date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
VIP (Vimple Communication--$104.25; -0.01; optionable): Russian wireless. Researching an exact date.
BACKGROUND: No splits in its past, and a foreign stock as well. That does not mean it won't split, but it is harder to predict. As before, we like the pattern and its leadership status; it can make us nice gains without announcing a split, and when it comes, all the better.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. VIP made is some excellent money on its recent run, and when we took the gain on the October options we said we would look for the next test as another change to enter. VIP has eased back toward the 10 day EMA (101.73), but holding easily over that level and showing a doji on the candlestick chart Friday. It may come on back to further test the 10 day, but given the doji and the stock's ability to hold its gain, we want to be ready to enter if it starts right back up from here. A very nice 5 month base is setting up for the next break higher.
Volume: 344.2K Avg Volume: 414.664K
BUY POINT: $105.25 Volume=600K Target=$115.55 Stop=$102.44
POSITION: VIP AA - Jan. $105c (53 delta) or VIP JA - Oct. $105c (49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$51.95; +0.08; optionable): Dental instruments and supplies. Forecast late October. Working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
After Hours: $51.87.
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving laterally the past week just below 52, right at the pattern high hit in early July. A solid 10 week base sporting 2 to 1 accumulation is setting the foundation for a breakout. Money flow is strong and running higher as the stocks works laterally, forming the handle. Volume jumped Friday as it tested the 10 day EMA (51.25) on the low and rebounded to post a slight gain. Seems to always be right up in the market leadership, and it is ready to breakout for a new all-time high.
Volume: 389.873K Avg Volume: 340.176K
BUY POINT: $52.38 Volume=494K Target=$58 Stop=$51.12
POSITION: XEQ AJ - Jan. $50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BMET (Biomet--$47.69; +0.04; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 9-18-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-9-01 in conjunction with earnings at $43. Prior to that announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-18-00 at $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled on 9-18-04 at 1:30, Warsaw, IN. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
After Hours: $47.50
STATUS: New buy point. BMET has set up a new handle to its 10 week double bottom with handle base. It never really attracted much volume on the original break higher, and now that it is setting up again we are looking to see if volume will come in as it makes the next breakout move. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base is setting up the next move higher. Again we want to see strong volume as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 1.172M Avg Volume: 1.982M
BUY POINT: $48.38 Volume=2.9M Target=$56.38 Stop=$46.88
POSITION: BIQ AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmet.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$62.32; +0.33; optionable): Big bikes. Forecast to announce a split on 10-13-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-17-00 at a stock price of $66. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split in the following months August 1997 ($28); July 1994 ($49); May 1992 ($59). The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Came back to test the 18 day EMA (61.36) on the Friday low and rebounded for a gain. Volume did not come with it, however, so we held off initiating any positions. A nice test of the low volume breakout from its 11 week cup with handle base. Reamins strong, but need to see volume on the next break higher.
Volume: 685.3K Avg Volume: 1.437M
BUY POINT: $62.74 Volume=2M Target=$69 Stop=$61.15
POSITION: HDI AL - Jan. $60c (71 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hdi.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
RL (Ralph Lauren--$37.91; +0.46; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 9-13-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. If no announcement Monday, looking at 11-3-04 in conjunction with earnings. Earnings date is tentative.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that RL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-12-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. RL is making the second 10 day EMA (37.41) test following the mid-August breakout from a nice 15 week double bottom with handle base. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 runs up the 10 or 18 day EMA after a breakout, and that means RL still has a lot of life on this move. Strong money flow is still leading higher, and we expect RL to continue to follow it higher.
Volume: 540.4K Avg Volume: 540K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=810K Target=$43 Stop=$37.29
POSITION: RL AG - Jan. $35c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
VLO (Valero Energy--$68.69; -1.07; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 10-8-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
After Hours: $69.74
STATUS: Cup. After a solid volume move through the 50 day EMA (68.39) Thursday, VLO took a breather Friday, easing back to the 50 day on lower volume. Nice day of rest, and now it is ready to continue the momentum move higher in its 7 week base.
Volume: 2.309M Avg Volume: 2.331M
BUY POINT: $70.21 Volume=3M Target=$76 Stop=$68.89
POSITION: VLO LO - Dec. $70c (58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vlo.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/31/2004
DHR (Danaher--$51.41; +0.41; optionable): Building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally over the 18 day EMA (50.61), tapping at that level on the intraday lows and rebounding on the close. Volume backed off to end the week. Very nice 10 week base with excellent 5 to 0 accumulation in the pattern. Money flow continues to move higher as the stock moves laterally. Ready to make a breakout move.
Volume: 1.033M Avg Volume: 1.302M
BUY POINT: $51.74 Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.22
POSITION: DHR LJ - Dec. $50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dhr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ANSS 09/02 PreSplt 46.4 +0.87 46.35 52 55K 120K 45.38
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Still a buy if continues the move on Monday with strong volume.
BLUD 09/02 Cup hdl 22.15 -0.35 21.75 25.25 274K 500K 20.98
Buy Not Issued. Pullback tapping 21.40 at the low and rallied back on average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
BMET 08/24 DB hdl 47.69 +0.04 46.36 56.38 1.2M 2.9M 46.88
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
BOL 08/26 DB hdl 67.83 -0.57 67.85 73.48 467K 578K 66.82
Current. Pullback on lower, but still strong volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA (67)
CELG 09/09 DB hdl 57.65 +0.42 58.22 65 1.1M 1.7M 57.44
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
CME 08/24 DB hdl 144.15 -0.47 141.15 155 408K 928K 142.97
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
CMI 09/04 Cup hdl 71.29 -0.3 71.44 80 356K 1.1M 69.89
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on very low volume. Still in uptrend.
CREE 09/09 Cup hdl 27.9 +2.12 26.78 30.75 5.6M 2.9M 26.89
Entered today. Explosive move on very strong volume surge.
CTSH 09/04 Cup 29.2 +0.3 28.98 39.25 1.2M 1.6M 28.54
Current. Tapped 28.70 at the low and rallied back on lower, but average volume. Continue with uptrend.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 20.81 -0.04 20.39 24.22 115K 400K 20.18
Current. Tapped 20.29 at the low and rallied back on very low volume as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA.
DHR 08/31 Cup 51.41 +0.41 51.74 57 1M 1.5M 50.22
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on low volume. Holding at some resistance.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 90.07 +2.16 88.05 99.94 9M 14M 87.44
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, but below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
EBAY 06/25 BO 90.07 +2.16 90.54 105 9M 10M 87.45
Current.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 90.07 +2.16 71.78 82.25 9M 10M 87.45
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 90.07 +2.16 53.78 60 9M 9M 84.75
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 90.07 +2.16 40.04 46 9M 8M 84.75
Current.
HDI 09/04 Rv H&S 62.32 +0.33 62.74 69 685K 2M 61.15
Buy Not Issued. Moving up after testing the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. In the pattern.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 82.77 +1.78 80.22 92 1.9M 3.6M 82.65
Current. Moving up on rising, but below average volume after testing the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
KRON 08/28 Rv H&S 45.3 +1.04 43.32 49 155K 362K 41.88
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not performed with the volume we needed so will drop and let test back.
MBT 08/07 Cup 143.35 +1.55 122.65 135 286K 500K 142.32
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
MET 08/12 DB hdl 38.16 +0.29 36.58 41 1.6M 2.5M 37.32
Current. Continue with uptrend on average volume. Holding at some resistance.
MRCY 09/07 Cup hdl 27 -0.09 28.06 32 84K 216K 27.05
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on 10 day MVA on low volume.
NCEN 08/21 Rv H&S 54.14 -1.1 52.82 60 773K 1.1M 54.98
Current. Pullback on rising, but average volume holding the 10 day MVA. Testing the breakout. May test back to 53.89.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 39.49 -0.16 38.82 45 13M 11M 37.98
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 39.49 -0.16 35.42 40.48 13M 11M 37.98
Current.
RAE 09/09 DB hdl 6.14 +0.15 6.12 7.42 1M 486K 5.92
Entered today. Tapped 5.85 at the low and rallied back for a great move on excellent volume surge. Did come off the high of 6.30.
RIMM 08/21 Dbl btm 68.09 +1.41 63.52 72 6.3M 10M 66.78
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on below average volume.
SCSC 08/28 Test BO 66.22 +2.35 63.88 70 233K 236K 64.98
Current. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
SLXP 08/31 Test BO 22.27 -0.31 23.78 28 185K 475K 22.38
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding below the 18 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
SNDA 07/31 Cup hdl 24.19 -0.65 19.51 23.32 482K 500K 23.68
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
SONC 09/09 DB hdl 23.23 -0.09 23.45 26.55 315K 450K 22.97
Current. Pullback tapping 22.96 at the low and rallied back on average volume. May test back to 22.89.
STLD 09/07 BO 35.77 +0.35 34.62 39 1.6M 750K 34.88
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on much lower, but strong volume.
STN 09/04 Cup hdl 48.15 +0.22 47.94 54.88 312K 781K 46.77
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 50.84 +1.53 47.83 53.88 4.8M 7.6M 49.72
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for an explosive move on stronger above average volume.
TRMB 08/28 Cup hdl 27.98 +0.53 28.21 34 188K 528K 27.48
Buy Not Hit. bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Needs to break through resistance here.
TTC 09/07 Cup 69.76 +0.56 69.35 79 142K 300K 68.38
Buy Not Issued. Continue with low volume ascent. Looking for a pullback.
TZOO 09/04 Test BO 57.5 -1.27 46.28 60 4.2M 1.7M 56.12
Current. Volatile session. Pullback tapping 54.55 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on much lower, but strong volume. Still in uptrend.
TZOO 08/07 Test 18 57.5 -1.27 28.27 60 4.2M 775K 56.12
Current.
VLO 09/09 Cup 68.69 -1.07 70.21 76 2.3M 3M 68.89
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
WWY 09/09 Rv H&S 63.68 +0.12 64.11 68 404K 683K 62.82
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Looking good.
YHOO 09/02 Cup 31.08 +0.59 31.31 34 11M 25M 29.97
Buy Not Issued. Yet to show any volume on this move. Still within a
buy if it can show some volume as it continues higher.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 59.43 +0.04 56.43 60 379K 425K 58.45
Current. Volatile session. Making a lateral move on low volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADTN 09/07 Put 26.43 +0.23 25.55 23.47 383K 1M 26.02
Buy Not Issued. Continue to rally holding above the 50 day MVA on very low volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
PXLW 09/04 Put 9.78 +0.03 9.45 8 873K 1.4M 9.78
Current. Making lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume.
SYY 09/08 Put 32.7 -0.01 32.55 31 1.7M 2.2M 32.78
Buy Not Issued. Showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA as stock makes a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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