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Begin part 2 of 2
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 13
Treasury Budget, August (2:00): -$40.0B expected and -$76.6B prior
September 14
Current Account, Q2 (8:30): -$158.7B expected and -$144.9B prior
Retail Sales, August (8:30): -0.1% expected and 0.7% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.2% prior
September 15
Business Inventories, July (8:30): 0.7% expected and 0.9% prior
NY Empire State Index, September (8:30): 20.0 expected and 12.6 prior
Industrial Production, August (9:15): 0.5% expected and 0.4% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (9:15): 77.4% expected and 77.1% prior
September 16
CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior
Core CPI, August (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 09/11 (8:30): 346K expected and 319K prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (12:00): 25.0 expected and 28.5 prior
September 17
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary., September (9:45): 97.0 expected and 95.9 prior
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: AVN; PMTI; VRNT
Best Plays:
1) ATRM: Showing a lot of momentum as it moves through the 200 day SMA.
2) ENWV: Has made the first test of the breakout.
3) HIG: Ready to fade from the 50 day EMA.
4) AGN: Starting the fall from the 50 day EMA on rising volume.
5) DRS: Excellent handle. This looks like the week.
6) NCOG: Volume is surging.
7) ACDO: Doji right below the 18 day EMA. Ready to fall.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
AGN (Allergan--$73.90; -1.25; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Put. AGN rallied to the 50 day EMA (76.32) with the market, but it was one of the stocks that was unable to make the breakthrough. It stalled and faded, then Friday it broke below the 18 day EMA (74.29) on the strongest volume in three weeks. Weak money flow is leading lower. Looking for a slide lower to deliver a solid 40%ish gain.
Volume: 822.2K Avg Volume: 853.635K
BUY POINT: $73.73 Volume=950K Target=$71.48 Stop=$74.38
POSITION: AGN VO - Oct. $75p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agn.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
HIG (Hartford Financial--$61.43; -0.41; optionable): Property and casualty insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hig.html
STATUS: Put. Broke through the 200 day SMA (63.18) in early August, sold, then rallied back with the rest of the market the past four weeks. Unlike the rest of the market, however, it failed at the 50 day EMA (62.44). Volume started to surge as it faded to end the week. It managed to hold the 10 and 18 day EMA (61.38) on the Friday close. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price, and we are looking for HIG to break through that support on continued strong volume to start positions. Looking for a 48%ish gain on a move to the target.
Volume: 2.395M Avg Volume: 1.401M
BUY POINT: $61.24 Volume=2M Target=$58.78 Stop=$61.65
POSITION: HIG VM - Oct. $65p (-85 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hig.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
WCN (Waste Connections--$30.35; +0.50; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Breakout. WCN showed us a breakout move of sorts to start the month though volume was anemic. It failed and fell back to the 18 day EMA (29.42) but this time found purchase. It shot higher Friday on strong volume, making the breakout from its 10 week cup with handle base. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation shows net buyers during the base. Money flow is screaming higher. Ready to make the next run higher.
Volume: 421.7K Avg Volume: 287.391K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=350K Target=$34 Stop=$29.55
POSITION: WCN AF - Jan. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wcn.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
ATRM (Aetrium--$5.73; +0.69; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atrm.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Reaching to call this a DB, but showing excellent action coming off the bottom of a 14 week base. ATRM undercut the 200 day SMA (5.43) in August, failed to take it out in late August, and faded back. That formed the 'hump' in the pattern. Friday the stock surged through the 200 day and 50 day EMA (5.58) on a strong volume surge. Strong money flow is leading higher and accumulation is already at 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume); it will only get better as it moves higher. We are not going to wait, however. If it continues to rally here we will start positions and then add to them on a successful test.
Volume: 226.705K Avg Volume: 167.887K
BUY POINT: $5.87 Volume=300K Target=$8 Stop=$5.42
POSITION: QGM LA - Dec. $5c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/atrm.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
ENWV (Endwave--$13.16; +0.12; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/enwv.html
After Hours: $13.14
STATUS: Breakout test. ENWV has already made us money, and we said we would look for the next entry point to work another gain. Well, ENWV has come back to test the 10 day EMA (13), making the first test of its strong, high volume breakout from its 23 week cup with handle base. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 runs up the short term MA after the breakout. The first test is one of our favorite entry points on any play.
Volume: 211.03K Avg Volume: 159.183K
BUY POINT: $13.47 Volume=234K Target=$16.15 Stop=$12.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/enwv.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.78; -0.1; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still trying to find some volume as it bumps up at the top of the range in its 4 week handle to the 24 week base. It showed some volume last week as it tried to make the breakout, but it was not breakaway volume and the stock could not hold the moves. Still showing strong money flow and solid 6 to 4 accumulation in the base. Looks ready to make the breakout move but we need to see that volume come in when it does to make the move stick.
Volume: 56.765K Avg Volume: 143.09K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=226K Target=$5.75 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drax.html
Play Date: 09/08/2004
DRS (DRS Technologies--$37.18; -0.07; optionable): Defense electronic products and systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tightening up very nicely in the handle, holding over the 10 day EMA (36.90) in a very narrow range last week. Very solid in the 10 week base with extremely low volume the past two weeks. Seems very quiet, but that is exactly what you look for in these patterns. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers and money moving in even as it bases following that huge breakout in early July. Now it just needs the volume on the breakout move.
Volume: 168.9K Avg Volume: 375.102K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=546K Target=$43 Stop=$36.67
POSITION: DRS LG - Dec. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drs.html
Play Date: 09/01/2004
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$20.45; -0.04; optionable): Toys and games
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
After Hours: $20.42
STATUS: Excellent test of the Tuesday break higher, showing a tight doji Friday right on top of the 10 day EMA (20.21). That doji on the candlestick pattern often indicates a pullback is over. Looks to be giving us another good entry point to its 10 week cup base. Strong money flow, solid accumulation.
Volume: 448.225K Avg Volume: 335.779K
BUY POINT: $21.07 Volume=474K Target=$24.18 Stop=$20.39
POSITION: UFF LD - Dec. $20c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jakk.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$25.87; -0.13; optionable): Outsourced accounts receivable
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume surged again Friday as NCOG tapped the 50 day SMA (25.33) on the low and rebounded to close basically flat. Still in the 10 week cup base, but this lateral move is something of a handle. Volume is a bit high, but it is holding up very well. The current base follows a 9 month double bottom with handle. Accumulation in that prior base was an outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation, showing solid buying during the entire consolidation. Looks ready to move with this volume, but needs to provide the breakout in price along with this volume.
Volume: 325.685K Avg Volume: 138.893K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=235K Target=$30 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: GCQ LE - Dec. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncog.html
Play Date: 08/11/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$26.8; -0.02; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Well, NUS looked ready to make the move last week as volume jumped Wednesday as the stock moved off the 18 day EMA (26.22). Thursday and Friday trade backed well off pace again and the stock just drifted laterally. It is showing very solid action, just boring us to death with its lack of movement. Good consolidation of the breakout from its 15 week base in late July. Just going to be patient and let it make the move and show us the volume.
Volume: 238.1K Avg Volume: 395.98K
BUY POINT: New: $26.88 (orig. $26.39) Volume=475K Target=$30.42 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: NUS LE - Dec. $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nus.html
Play Date: 09/07/2004
PRXL (Parexel Intl.--$19.74; -0.05; optionable): Biopharmaceutical services (marketing, clinical research, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/prxl.html
After Hours: $19.68
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PRXL has formed a second handle to its 13 week base. Last week it faded back to the 18 day EMA (19.55), tapping that level on the low and then rebounded to close the week with a modest loss. Volume was a bit more than you want on a pullback. Still a very solid base with positive accumulation and solid money flow. Just waiting for a volume breakout.
Volume: 146.282K Avg Volume: 114.146K
BUY POINT: $20.54 Volume=176K Target=$24.48 Stop=$19.62
POSITION: VBQ LD - Dec. $20c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/prxl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
ACDO (Accredo Health--$24.49; -0.11; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
After Hours: $24.56
STATUS: Put. A weak doji Friday right below the 18 day EMA (24.74) on lower volume. It looks as if ACDO has run out of gas on this rebound that filled the gap from its ugly gap lower to end August. The stock has been in a steep downtrend since July, and this rebound to fill the gap did not reveal any new power to break it out of the trend. Looking for volume to pick up a bit more as it turns lower from here. Looking for a nice 60%ish gain at the target.
Volume: 1.19M Avg Volume: 1.017M
BUY POINT: $23.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: DZU VE - Oct. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 16.21 +0.21 15.16 17.84 211K 276K 15.67
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji as stock continues to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
AVN 08/28 Test BO 3.01 +0.15 2.51 3.64 2M 1M 2.78
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up the 10 day MVA for a great move on excellent volume surge. Made a 52 week high.
AVO 09/04 Cup 39.26 -0.33 38.49 44.12 192K 1M 38.64
Current. Pullback on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
CAND 09/09 Flat 3.08 -0.12 3.15 4 261K 277K 2.98
Current. Pullback on much lower, but strong volume. May test back to support at 2.91.
CHTT 08/27 Cup 32.13 +0.26 30.35 34.72 95K 258K 30.98
Current. Continue with uptrend making a 52 week high on lower, below average volume.
CLF 08/16 Cup hdl 73.8 -0.31 66.14 74 275K 454K 73.35
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
CSAR 08/26 Test BO 17 0 16.55 19.38 59K 175K 16.45
Current. Tapped 16.73 at the low and rallied back showing a tight doji on very low volume. Making a lateral move at some resistance.
CSAR 08/16 Test BO 17 0 15.21 17.72 59K 175K 16.45
Current.
CSGP 09/08 DB hdl 45.84 +0.98 45.12 50.32 36K 155K 43.25
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to open on the 10 day MVA and made a fierce rally on lower, below average volume. Did not enter because volume was not there. Will drop the stock for now and let test back.
DECK 08/18 Asc Tri 33.1 +0.64 31.54 36.55 174K 550K 31.25
Current. Moving up on very low volume after testing the 10 day MVA. In good shape.
DRAX 08/28 Cup hdl 4.78 -0.1 4.92 5.88 57K 226K 4.65
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on very low volume. May test back to 4.74. Still in good shape.
DRS 09/08 Flat 37.18 -0.07 37.88 43 169K 546K 36.67
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 10 day MVA showing a doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
EXBD 08/28 Test BO 59.45 +0.45 58.69 63.58 112K 250K 58.48
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday on lower, below average volume. In good shape.
GIVN 09/01 Flat 36.8 -1.24 37.25 42.45 754K 431K 38.25
Trailing Stop. Tapped 40.55 at the high, but reversed hard closing below the 10 day MVA on very strong volume.
ISSC 08/23 Test BO 26.84 -0.3 27.04 31.48 270K 300K 26.82
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back testing the 18 day MVA intraday on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape, but needs to hold here.
ISSC 08/11 Asc Tri 26.84 -0.3 23.88 27.55 270K 300K 26.39
Current.
JAKK 09/01 Flat 20.45 -0.04 21.07 24.18 448K 474K 20.39
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, but still above average volume.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 82.77 +1.78 80.22 92 1.9M 3.6M 82.65
Current. Moving up on rising, but below average volume after testing the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
LIFC 09/04 Dbl btm 9.75 -0.04 9.63 11.59 129K 450K 9.57
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
MDCC 08/31 Test 18 23.85 -0.16 23.93 26.95 81K 300K 23.38
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape
MVSN 09/09 DB hdl 24.65 +0.6 24.22 27.32 435K 677K 23.84
Buy Not Hit. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on low volume. Did not enter the play because volume was not there. Will drop for now and let test back.
NCOG 09/09 Cup 25.87 -0.13 26.32 30 326K 235K 25.65
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the simple 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. There is some resistance at 26.
NTMD 09/07 Pennant 20.27 +1.27 20.28 24.38 2.1M 1.8M 19.38
Entered today. Bonus. Nice lateral pennant the past 5 weeks, consolidating a huge breakout and rally the last two weeks of July. Blasted higher on an excellent volume surge.
NUS 08/11 Test BO 26.8 -0.02 27.05 31 238K 475K 26.38
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back showing a tight doji on low volume. Making a lateral move.
OMN 08/30 Flat 6.25 -0.05 6.29 7.56 39K 137K 5.85
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on very low volume. Holding at some resistance here. Will need to see some more volume.
PMTI 08/23 Dbl btm 23.19 +1.25 18.44 21.95 507K 222K 22.32
Current. Tapped 21.70 at the low and rallied back for a nice gain on stronger above average volume.
PRXL 09/07 DB hdl 19.74 -0.05 20.54 24.48 146K 176K 19.62
Buy Not Hit. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. the stock has not performed so will drop.
QCOM 09/02 FlyPlat 39.49 -0.16 38.82 45 13M 11M 37.98
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
SOSA 07/15 Cup hdl 4.11 +0.01 3.48 4.38 872K 500K 4.24
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back as stock makes a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on lower, but still very strong volume.
STLD 09/07 BO 35.77 +0.35 34.62 39 1.6M 750K 34.88
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA showing a doji on much lower, but strong volume.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 80.25 +0.94 77.46 82.38 46K 265K 79.24
Current. Moving up on very low volume holding at some resistance. Moving up on lower volume after testing the 10 day MVA.
UTHR 09/02 Test 18 31.54 +0.99 31.12 35.35 370K 650K 30.42
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 18 day MVA on low volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there. Will let the stock test back.
VRNT 09/04 Dbl btm 35.07 +1.07 33.58 38.36 276K 216K 33.98
Current. Another great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
WSO 09/07 DB hdl 29.75 -0.31 30.08 34.94 66K 150K 29.24
Current. Pullback on much lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
YHOO 09/02 Cup 31.08 +0.59 31.31 34 11M 25M 29.97
Buy Not Issued. Yet to show any volume on this move. Still within a
buy if it can show some volume as it continues higher.
ZBRA 08/25 Dbl btm 59.43 +0.04 56.45 60 379K 425K 58.45
Current. Volatile session. Making a lateral move on low volume.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACDO 09/09 Put 24.49 -0.11 23.88 21.75 1.2M 1.1M 24.22
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move just under the 18 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
ADEX 09/04 Put 18.63 +0.24 16.98 15.15 94K 175K 17.18
Buy Not Hit. continue to rally above the 50 day MVA on lower, below average volume. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
AMSG 08/28 Put 22.61 +0.01 22.35 20.55 212K 300K 22.54
Current. Making a lateral move on the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
ATRX 08/28 Put 29.73 +0.56 29.25 27.35 92K 700K 29.33
Current. Extremely low volume test of 18 day MA. Obviously rallying
w/market in general melt higher late Friday. With no
volume we expect it to fail at this level.
CNQR 09/08 Put 10.23 +0.16 9.74 8.24 136K 200K 9.94
Buy Not Hit. Moving up on rising, but below average volume holding above the 10 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
MERQ 09/08 Put 35.14 +2.46 32.45 30.46 4.1M 2.8M 33.42
Exited. Rallied holding above the 18 day MVA on above average volume.
POWI 09/04 Put 20.48 +1.47 18.72 17.22 1M 500K 19.21
Exited. Rallied on very strong volume surge.
SVU 09/07 Put 27.05 +0.44 26.88 25.32 629K 850K 26.96
Current. Low volume rally holding under the 18 day MVA. May test the 18 day MVA and fail.
TEVA 08/21 Put 27.37 -0.15 27.34 25.35 2.4M 4.5M 26.88
Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Looks to be stalling.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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