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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Monday: AVN; KMRT; STLD; TDS; ATRM
Best Plays:
1) PXD: Breaking through the 200 day SMA to the downside on strong trade.
2) EMR: Nice pattern forming and plenty of room to run higher.
3) BDX: A leader ready to make a breakout.
4) DRS: Starting higher. Just needs some volume.
5) ENWV: Tried the breakout Monday but faded. Still looks great.
6) ACDO: Another doji at the 18 day EMA. Ready to roll over.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/13/2004
PXD (Pioneer Natural Res.--$32.02; -0.31; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pxd.html
STATUS: Put. An oil and gas company that is not doing well. PXED peaked in July and rolled over, falling to the 200 day SMA (32.50). it bounced, but had no volume. It gapped back down to the 200 day a week ago and has slid along that level until Monday. Volume surged and it fell below the 200 day. Looks ready to continue the plunge with money flow diving lower and leading the way down. Looking for a nice 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.6M Avg Volume: 914K
BUY POINT: $31.94 Volume=1.2M Target=$29.92 Stop=$32.51
POSITION: PXD VG - Oct. $35p (-76 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pxd.html
Play Date: 09/13/2004
MXIM (Maxim Integrated--$42.19; +0.17; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mxim.html
After Hours: $42.19
STATUS: Put. Roared back to life Thursday on some massive volume but Friday it continued the move as volume faded. The selling volume was intense, the rebound volume mixed. Monday MXIM showed a very tight doji on rising volume as it tapped the 18 day EMA (42.89) on the high and gave the move back. Unlike many chips, MXIM did not break its down trendline on the recent move, simply rebounding back up to the 18 day EMA. Critical point for the stock. If it rolls down here through the 10 day EMA (42.04) we are looking to move in if volume remains strong.
Volume: 7.897M Avg Volume: 6.061M
BUY POINT: $41.98 Volume=8.5M Target=$39.95 Stop=$42.44
POSITION: XIQ VI - Oct. $45p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mxim.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/13/2004
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$50.24; +0.03; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Solid, market leader that has used the past 12 weeks to set up a nice cup with handle over the 200 day SMA (47.38), a key support level for any stock. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base shows more buyers and money moving into the stock during the consolidation of the last breakout and run that started in November 2003. Very nice, tight handle forming, on below average volume. Volume has kicked higher a couple of sessions the past week, telling us to get ready for the breakout. This stock can run and run when it gets going; our target is our initial one, but we will let it run further if it is strong when it hits that point.
Volume: 956.2K Avg Volume: 1.021M
BUY POINT: $51.25 Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.14
POSITION: BDX LJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdx.html
Play Date: 09/13/2004
EMR (Emerson Electric--$64.02; +0.34; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume has started to jump the past week with a couple of above average volume 'get ready' spikes telling us to be on the alert for a strong upside move. A nice 32 week base has formed using the 50 and 200 day SMA (61.67, 61.87) as support. Solid 7 to 5 accumulation and money flow racing higher ahead of price. We are ready to move into positions on a continued move on strong volume; we will then look for more on a successful test or breakout from a handle if one forms.
Volume: 1.056M Avg Volume: 1.244M
BUY POINT: $64.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$68 Stop=$63.48
POSITION: EMR AM - Jan. $65c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/emr.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 08/28/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.74; -0.04; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DRAX faded a bit more Monday, but we are not giving up on it. Volume was never strong on the move last week, and this low volume test looks to be a good shakeout in the 5.5 month base showing solid 6 to 4 accumulation. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of price. Being patient and waiting for a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 90.125K Avg Volume: 142.772K
BUY POINT: $4.78 Volume=226K Target=$5.75 Stop=$4.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drax.html
Play Date: 09/08/2004
DRS (DRS Technologies--$37.62; +0.44; optionable): Defense electronic products and systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tapped the buy point Monday, but though volume was higher, it was still very low and thus DRS was unable to hold the move. Still a very solid 10 week base with excellent 3 to 0 accumulation and strong money flow. A solid leader that is trying to resume the move after that huge breakout in July. Again, a solid leader.
Volume: 232.1K Avg Volume: 368.545K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=546K Target=$43 Stop=$36.67
POSITION: DRS LG - Dec. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drs.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
ENWV (Endwave--$13.64; +0.48; no options): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/enwv.html
After Hours: $13.14
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged Monday on some strong trade and sucked us in, but then it reversed and gave back most of the move. ENWV is an explosive stock in a leading sector right now. We view ENWV still as a good play with and are just looking at the next blast higher on volume. Again, ENWV is testing the breakout from its 23 week cup with handle base. It is the first test, one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 468.114K Avg Volume: 163.772K
BUY POINT: New: $13.88 (orig. $13.47) Volume=234K Target=$16.15 Stop=$12.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/enwv.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$26.19; +0.32; optionable): Outsourced accounts receivable
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Cup. NCOG was on the move Monday, but volume was not. After very strong volume to end last week, NCOG made a steady advance toward the breakout from its 10 week cup base. Was forming a handle but tried the break Monday. The current base follows a 9 month double bottom with handle. Accumulation in that prior base was an outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation, showing solid buying during the entire consolidation. Needs the volume to ramp up on the next move.
Volume: 90.339K Avg Volume: 136.181K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=235K Target=$30 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: GCQ LE - Dec. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncog.html
Play Date: 08/11/2004
NUS (Nu Skin--$26.68; -0.12; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still patiently waiting. NUS is moving laterally below 27 on low, below average volume. Now an 8 week test of the breakout from its 16 week base. All we can do is keep tabs on it and watch for the volume to break higher as the stock does the same.
Volume: 279.3K Avg Volume: 380.636K
BUY POINT: New: $26.88 (orig. $26.39) Volume=475K Target=$30.42 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: NUS LE - Dec. $25c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nus.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
WCN (Waste Connections--$30.61; +0.26; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Breakout. Volume abandoned WCN Monday after several solid sessions last week. Nice 10 week cup with handle base, and it is making the breakout move. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation shows net buyers during the base. Money flow is screaming higher. Still within the buy range, and a bit more volume is all we need given the solid trade last week.
Volume: 211.2K Avg Volume: 298.318K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=350K Target=$34 Stop=$29.55
POSITION: WCN AF - Jan. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wcn.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$31.87; +0.79; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $31.99
STATUS: Cup. Still working up the right side of the base, and now has filled the gap down in July. Critical juncture for YHOO at this gap down point. It has to show us a strong volume break over 32 for us to start a partial position in as it builds the right side of its 12 week base.
Volume: 17.545M Avg Volume: 19.494M
BUY POINT: $31.31 Volume=25M Target=$34 Stop=$29.97
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $30c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
ACDO (Accredo Health--$24.64; +0.15; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
After Hours: $24.56
STATUS: Put. Another doji below the 18 day EMA (24.73) as ACDO has filled the gap down in late August. Money flow is weak and the stock remains under distribution. Looking for the turn down from here and through the 10 day EMA (24.14) on stronger volume.
Volume: 839.393K Avg Volume: 1.006M
BUY POINT: $23.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: DZU VE - Oct. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
AGN (Allergan--$73.85; -0.05; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agn.html
STATUS: Put. Volume was a bit higher Monday as AGN fell early, rallied back, but then fell late once more. May try to bounce for another test back up to the 50 day SMA (75.10), but we still look for the stock to fade further on stronger trade. Looking for a slide lower to deliver a solid 40%ish gain.
Volume: 815.5K Avg Volume: 848.318K
BUY POINT: $73.73 Volume=950K Target=$71.48 Stop=$74.38
POSITION: AGN VO - Oct. $75p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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