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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Tuesday: EBAY; KMRT; TZOO; VLO; YHOO; SYY
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/14/2004
GYI (Getty Images--$56.36; -0.14; optionable): Imaging services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gyi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GYI is moving through a very tight 3 week handle to its 10 week base. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 4 to 1, indicating buyers moving into the stock during the pattern. The handle has formed over the 50 day EMA (55.27), a good level of institutional support. Tuesday volume surged above average as GYI showed a tight doji. Looks ready to make the breakout. Very solid earnings and sales.
Volume: 448.3K Avg Volume: 373.59K
BUY POINT: $57.34 Volume=560K Target=$63.48 Stop=$56.44
POSITION: GYI AK - Jan. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cS/gyi.html
Play Date: 09/14/2004
CPS (Choicepoint--$43.5; -0.21; optionable): Identification and credential verification services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cps.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 11 week base has formed using the 200 day SMA (40.76) as support at the bottom of the pattern and the 50 day EMA (42.68) for the handle. Accumulation is a strong 4 to 1 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) setting up a good foundation for a breakout. Very nice, tight lateral handle has formed on lower volume. Tuesday volume started higher as CPS showed a doji right on top of the 18 day EMA (43.04). It is set up well and now it needs to show us a strong volume breakout.
Volume: 213.8K Avg Volume: 257.772K
BUY POINT: $44.12 Volume=387K Target=$48.38 Stop=$43.22
POSITION: CPS AI - Jan. $45c (38 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cps.html
New Downside:
Play Date: 09/14/2004
FAST (Fastenal Company--$58.41; -1.09; optionable): Fasteners
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fast.html
After Hours: $58.27
STATUS: Put. FAST was cruising until early this month when it peaked on low volume and then dove lower on strong, above average volume. It tried to hold the 50 day EMA (59.75), failed, and then made a very low volume rebound Friday and Monday. It resumed the move lower Tuesday on much stronger, average volume. Looks ready to make the further plunge.
Volume: 737.415K Avg Volume: 646.09K
BUY POINT: $58.19 Volume=700K Target=$56.06 Stop=$58.64
POSITION: FQA VL - Oct. $60p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/fast.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$28.05; +0.23; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has jumped the past two sessions as MRCY heads toward the breakout. Late Tuesday it hit the breakout point but too late to issue an alert. Solid move and ready to make the breakout and still very much in the buy zone. Surging money flow and strong 7 to 4 accumulation in its 32 week base.
Volume: 205.609K Avg Volume: 144.363K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: And still continues up the 10 day EMA.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Researching next possible date.
MBT: Researching the next potential date as we let it run.
MIK: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
RL: No split announced with 9-13-04 at a board meeting. Still solid. Next tentative date 11-3-04.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
TTC: Forecast 9-21-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Researching the exact date.
WWY: Researching the exact date.
XRAY: Late October. Working on exact date.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/14/2004
SIE (Sierra Health Services--$44.76; -0.22; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in May 1998 near $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-20-04 at which time no additional shares are authorized, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sie.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Forming a handle to its 12 week base that has formed along the 50 day EMA (43.24). A strong run from January to June after the breakout from its prior base (27.50 to 45); SIE needed this breather. Very quiet the past three weeks. Need to see a very strong volume surge on the breakout.
Volume: 312.4K Avg Volume: 479.454K
BUY POINT: $45.58 Volume=719K Target=$50.55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: SIE LI - Dec. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sie.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BMET (Biomet--$48.12; +0.20; optionable): Medical appliances. Forecast to announce a split on 9-18-04 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-9-01 in conjunction with earnings at $43. Prior to that announced a 3 for 2 split on 7-18-00 at $43. The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled on 9-18-04 at 1:30, Warsaw, IN. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
After Hours: $47.96
STATUS: New buy point. Jumped higher on some rising volume Tuesday, moving to the buy point. Volume was not there, however, and it backed off on the close. Still looks very solid in this second handle to its 10 week double bottom with handle base. Again, it never really attracted much volume on the original break higher, and now that it is setting up again we are looking to see if volume will come in as it makes the next breakout move. Tuesday started better but it needs more. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base is setting up the next move higher.
Volume: 1.745M Avg Volume: 1.953M
BUY POINT: $48.38 Volume=2.9M Target=$56.38 Stop=$46.88
POSITION: BIQ AI - Jan. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bmet.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CMI (Cummins--$70.26; -0.11; optionable): Manufacturing (truck engines, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 10-12-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CMI has never split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-6-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. CMI resumed its breakout move to start the month, but volume tapped out and it has faded back to the 18 day EMA (69.64), showing a pair of dojis at that level; that often indicates a pullback is coming to an end. CMI broke out from a 14 week base in late July, then tested the move through August. It has come back for a low volume test of the 18 day, making a higher low at that level. Money flow remains solid. Getting ready to start the move back up.
Volume: 467.4K Avg Volume: 706.818K
BUY POINT: $71.44 Volume=1.1M Target=$80 Stop=$69.89
POSITION: CMI LN - Dec. $70c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
RL (Ralph Lauren--$37.70; -0.08; optionable): Forecast to announce a split on 9-13-04 in conjunction with a board meeting. If no announcement Monday, looking at 11-3-04 in conjunction with earnings. Earnings date is tentative.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that RL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 8-12-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rl.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still making its second test of the 10 day EMA (37.52) after a nice breakout in mid-August. Volume has been low on the pullback until Tuesday, when trade jumped back above average. That often signals a stock is ready to resume the breakout move. Nice test of the breakout from a nice 15 week double bottom with handle base. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 runs up the 10 or 18 day EMA after a breakout, and that means RL still has a lot of life on this move. Strong money flow is still leading higher. With the volume returning it looks as if RL is ready to make the move.
Volume: 706K Avg Volume: 510.363K
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=810K Target=$43 Stop=$37.29
POSITION: RL AG - Jan. $35c (83 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rl.html
PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
VLO took off. Looking good.
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$57.00; +0.22; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume continues to fade as BCR moves laterally along the 10 day EMA (56.47), forming a very nice handle to its 14 week base that formed roughly along the 50 day EMA (54.98). Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the base is setting up the breakout just as is the handle. Money flow continues to move higher ahead of the stock even as it moves laterally. Looks ready; just need volume.
Volume: 327.5K Avg Volume: 628.181K
BUY POINT: $57.72 Volume=950K Target=$64 Stop=$56.12
POSITION: BCR AY - Jan. $57.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 09/13/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$30.61; -0.06; optionable): Cleaning products for fast food, service industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped above average Tuesday as ECL showed a very nice, tight doji, tapping the 50 day EMA (30.33) on the low and rebounding to close flat. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in its 10 week base is setting up the breakout. Money flow is rallying ahead of the price even as the stock moves laterally. Very nice pattern and looks ready to give us the breakout move.
Volume: 742K Avg Volume: 604K
BUY POINT: $31.04 Volume=894K Target=$35 Stop=$30.42
POSITION: ECL AF - Jan. $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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