|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Monday: AVN; KMRT; STLD; TDS; ATRM
Best Plays:
1) BBOX: Turning down from the 50 day EMA on rising volume.
2) PMCS: Rolling over from the 50 day EMA on strong volume.
3) FFIV: Nice test of the 200 day SMA after a strong move higher.
4) OIS: Has tested the breakout and looks ready to resume the move.
5) BDX: Just took it easy in the market selling. Still ready.
6) NCOG: Big volume. Though it reversed, that was just the market.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/15/2004
BBOX (Black Box--$37.70; -1.10; optionable): PC networking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbox.html
STATUS: Put. BBOX is peaked in April and has trended lower since, moving below the 18 day EMA (37.73) with a bounce up to the 50 day EMA (38.82) in June for some air. It has rallied back up with the market but has again stalled at the 50 day. It has stalled and moved back to the 18 day on rising volume the past two sessions. Looking for it to fall through that level and give us a 43%ish or better gain.
Volume: 151.426K Avg Volume: 162.649K
BUY POINT: $37.48 Volume=175K Target=$35.24 Stop=$37.82
POSITION: QBX VH - Oct. $40p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bbox.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
PMCS (PMC-Sierra--$9.41; -0.72; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pmcs.html
After Hours: $9.41
STATUS: Put. Long, steady downtrend, bouncing down the 18 day EMA (9.55) with an occasional bump up to the 50 day EMA (10.51) for air. PMCS just made the bounce up to the 50 day with the market bounce, but Wednesday was selling on stronger, above average volume, breaking back through the 18 day EMA. Looks ready to resume the downtrend. Looking for a nice 48%ish gain.
Volume: 8.924M Avg Volume: 5.781M
BUY POINT: $9.35 Volume=6.5M Target=$8.08 Stop=$9.57
POSITION: SQL WB - Nov. $10p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pmcs.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
RHAT (Red Hat--$15.04; -0.19; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
STATUS: Put. RHAT peaked in June and started the current downtrend, moving below the 18 day EMA (13.97). It rebounded with the market this month, moving back up to the 50 day EMA (15.63), coming up for air. Looking for it to turn over from here, but want to see the volume jump back up to average or better. Looking for a nice 53%ish gain.
Volume: 4.068M Avg Volume: 6.45M
BUY POINT: $14.92 Volume=7M Target=$13.38 Stop=$15.32
POSITION: RCV VC - Oct. $15p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/15/2004
FFIV (F5 Networks--$28.97; -0.73; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $28.99
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. FFIV is working on forming the right side of its 8 month cup base. It blasted higher to end last week and start this week. A nice easy, low volume test this week has taken it back close to the 200 day (28.19). 5 to 4 accumulation in the base at this point; not bad, and as it rallies it will most likely improve. Money flow is surging ahead of price. May take another 2 to 3 days to complete the test, but looks salty.
Volume: 792.2K Avg Volume: 1.108M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=1.3M Target=$34.45 Stop=$28.15
POSITION: FLK AF - Jan. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
OIS (Oil States Int.--$17.68; +0.18; no options): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ois.html
STATUS: Test breakout. OIS broke from a 6 week double bottom with handle base last week, moving on strong volume. It has come back to test the move this wee, but held the 10 day EMA (17.38), tapping that level on the Wednesday low and then rebounding on strong volume. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the short base shows all buyers. Strong money flow to go with the accumulation. Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 449.2K Avg Volume: 193.161K
BUY POINT: $17.86 Volume=290K Target=$21 Stop=$17.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ois.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/13/2004
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$51.37; -0.04; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BDX could not continue the move Wednesday after that solid volume move Tuesday, but it held its ground on low volume. Strong money flow continues, complimenting the strong 4 to 1 accumulation that shows more buyers and money moving into the stock during the consolidation. Just looking for it to continue the move.
Volume: 850.9K Avg Volume: 1.054M
BUY POINT: New: $51.45 (orig. $51.25) Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.14
POSITION: BDX LJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdx.html
Play Date: 09/08/2004
DRS (DRS Technologies--$37.36; +0.07; optionable): Defense electronic products and systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working laterally in the very flat handle of the base, tapping at the 18 day EMA (36.85) on the intraday lows. A solid 10 week base with excellent 3 to 0 accumulation and strong money flow. Solid, but just waiting for the breakout on some strong volume.
Volume: 78.5K Avg Volume: 374.94K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=546K Target=$43 Stop=$36.67
POSITION: DRS LG - Dec. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drs.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$26.11; -0.15; optionable): Outsourced accounts receivable
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume exploded Wednesday as NCOG gapped higher, but it could not hold onto the move with the market selling. Not bad action considering the overall market, and it is still set up to make the breakout move. Nice 10 week cup base that follows a 9 month double bottom with handle. Accumulation in that prior base was an outstanding 10 to 2 accumulation, showing solid buying during the entire consolidation.
Volume: 431.963K Avg Volume: 140.515K
BUY POINT: $26.32 Volume=235K Target=$30 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: GCQ LE - Dec. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncog.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
WCN (Waste Connections--$30.18; +0.13; optionable): Waste management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wcn.html
STATUS: Breakout. Raced higher Wednesday, hitting 31 on the high. Volume did not follow, however, and the stock gave up most of the move. A nice test of the 10 day EMA (29.95) after last weeks strong volume breakout from a nice 10 week cup with handle base. Strong 4 to 2 accumulation shows net buyers during the base. Money flow remains strong.
Volume: 187.6K Avg Volume: 287.377K
BUY POINT: $30.48 Volume=350K Target=$34 Stop=$29.55
POSITION: WCN AF - Jan. $30c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wcn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
ACDO (Accredo Health--$24.51; +0.01; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
After Hours: $24.50
STATUS: Put. ACDO continues to work laterally below the 18 day EMA (24.69), unable to muster the strength to break higher, but stubbornly hanging on. It has filled the gap from the late August thud lower. Want to see some stronger volume as it turns lower and gives up the fight.
Volume: 920.303K Avg Volume: 1.049M
BUY POINT: $23.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: DZU VE - Oct. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
Play Date: 09/14/2004
ERTS (Electronic Arts--$47.49; -0.21; optionable): Multimedia graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/erts.html
After Hours: $47.50
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower Wednesday on low volume, moving down on a downgrade. Not exactly the move we were looking for. Looking for it to rebound back to 48 to fill the gap and then proceed lower. Of course, with money flow diving lower it could head lower from here. Want to see a bit more volume.
Volume: 2.477M Avg Volume: 3.581M
BUY POINT: New: Test 48 then $47.88. From close: $47.38 Volume=3.5M Target=$45.45 Stop=$47.89
POSITION: ESQ VJ - Oct. $50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/erts.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
