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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: DKS; IDEV; TV; AAI; PXD; PXLW
Tuesday night play results:
AAPL: A very nice doji at the 10 day EMA.
PNK: Dropped out of the handle on strong volume.
FAST: Tanked early but managed a rebound. Still below the 50 day EMA.
ECL: Still solid.
New plays for Thursday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/15/2004
MSSN (Mission Resources--$5.95; +0.39; no options): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mssn.html
After Hours: $5.95
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 8 week base has formed around the 50 day EMA (5.25), a key support level. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern shows buyers moving in and setting up the foundation for the breakout. Indeed, MSSN started up for the breakout Wednesday on rising, average volume. Money flow is moving higher as well. Looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 291.403K Avg Volume: 358.356K
BUY POINT: $6.06 Volume=538K Target=$7.32 Stop=$5.72
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mssn.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
FHRX (First Horizon Pharma--$18.95; +0.41; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fhrx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FHRX has formed a base on base pattern the past six months. The first was a 4 month cup base that could not hold the breakout. That fell into the current 11 week base that used the 200 day SMA (16.01) as support. Strong 4 to 1 accumulation in the base (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows solid buying as it consolidated. Volume surged as it moved up the past week and eased into the handle. Strong money flow is leading higher ahead of the stock and relative strength is ready to make the breakout, a good corroboration of the move.
Volume: 868.776K Avg Volume: 374.244K
BUY POINT: $19.35 Volume=561K Target=$23 Stop=$18.22
POSITION: FUF AD - Jan. $20c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/fhrx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/15/2004
BLL (Ball Corp.--$35.90; -1.06; optionable): Packaging and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bll.html
STATUS: Put. BLL is struggling. A market leader that just ran into a buzz saw. It reversed when it tried to make a new high, selling on strong volume. It tanked to the 50 day EMA (36.42), tried to hold but then fell through that level Tuesday on very strong volume. Rebounded off of the low to close, but that is only making the test for us. May come back to tap at the 50 day again, but we are willing to take some positions on a further move down from here. Looking for a nice 56%ish gain.
Volume: 1.572M Avg Volume: 404.349K
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=607K Target=$33.72 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: BLL WU - Nov. $37.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bll.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
IDCC (Interdigital Communications--$15.85; -0.33; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idcc.html
STATUS: Put. Pretty ugly. Moved laterally in a trading range for 5 months and then gapped down out of the range in early August. It has moved laterally again, trying to break through the 50 day EMA (16.52) the past week. Volume never rallied with the stock, however, and it started back down this week. Looks ready to fade back toward the August lows. Looking to ride that move lower for a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 343.626K Avg Volume: 575.556K
BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=650K Target=$14.12 Stop=$15.94
POSITION: DAQ VW - Oct. $17.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/idcc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GMAI, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Oil is shaping up again.
GTRC: Starting to form a handle after that explosive move higher Monday.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
MLHR: Breaking down on strong volume, falling below the bottom of a 5 week lateral move below the 200 day SMA.
Upside:
GENZ: Moving mostly laterally the past two weeks, forming a handle to its 8 month cup with handle base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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