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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the delay in part 2. We experienced a crash that corrupted our data, and we had to rebuild.
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: NCEN; RIMM; TZOO
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/16/2004
TXN (Texas Instruments--$21.59; -0.26; optionable): Semiconductors.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
After Hours: $22.19
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (21.03). A semiconductor, and it did say things were not all that great, but it shot higher on the news, breaking through its down trendline and the 50 day EMA (21.03) in the process. Strong volume on the move, and it has spent the past two sessions easing back on very low, below average volume. After the close Thursday it announced a billion dollar stock buy back. In a very good position to rally toward the 200 day SMA (26.29), and a very good risk/reward position.
Volume: 11.295M Avg Volume: 14.42M
BUY POINT: $22.12 Volume=2M Target=$26 Stop=$21.86
POSITION: TXN AT - Jan. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/txn.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/13/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$30.82; +0.1; optionable): Cleaning products for fast food, service industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has started popping off, jumping Tuesday and Thursday as ECL continues to move laterally over the 50 day EMA (30.37). Nice 10 week base sporting solid 3 to 1 accumulation and surging money flow. Plenty to like in this play. Was up off of the 18 day Thursday; getting ready to make the breakout move. Just waiting for the break higher on some strong trade.
Volume: 635.3K Avg Volume: 614.372K
BUY POINT: $31.04 Volume=894K Target=$35 Stop=$30.42
POSITION: ECL AF - Jan. $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecl.html
Play Date: 09/14/2004
GYI (Getty Images--$55.68; -0.13; optionable): Imaging services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gyi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 10 week base. Tight, lateral move on mostly lower, below average volume. Volume jumped Tuesday, a 'get ready' spike of sorts. Accumulation in the pattern is a solid 4 to 1, indicating buyers moving into the stock during the pattern. The handle has formed over the 50 day EMA (55.31), a good level of institutional support. Very solid earnings and sales.
Volume: 277.8K Avg Volume: 385.577K
BUY POINT: $57.34 Volume=560K Target=$63.48 Stop=$56.44
POSITION: GYI AK - Jan. $55c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cS/gyi.html
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$27.90; +0.42; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Monday through Wednesday, and it looked as if MRCY was ready to make the breakout from its 7.5 month base. Thursday it dried up as MRCY held steady. May be the last quiet before the storm. Surging money flow and strong 7 to 4 accumulation. Looks ready.
Volume: 68.238K Avg Volume: 149.813K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: And still continues up the 10 day EMA.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
CME: Forecast 10-20-04. Testing the 18 day EMA with a doji. May be ready to try again.
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Researching next possible date.
MBT: Ran into trouble and we took the rest of the gain. Waiting for it to set up again.
MIK: Announced the split after the close.
NCEN: Forecast to announce a split on 10-5-04
RL: Forecast 11-3-04. Falling below the 18 day EMA on rising volume.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
TTC: Forecast 9-21-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Had to close the position. Waiting to see if it can set up again.
WWY: Researching the exact date.
XRAY: Late October. Struggling some, but holding the 18 day EMA.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 09/16/2004
BRO (Brown & Brown--$45.51; +0.58; no options): Insurance broker. Forecast to announce a split on 10-6-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in October 2001 at a stock price of approximately $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
STATUS: Breakout test. BRO broke from a 7 week double bottom with handle base in late August, surging on strong volume. It rallied to 46 and is now testing the move, coming back to the 18 day EMA on low volume. Accumulation in the base is an outstanding 4 to 0, showing a lot of buyers moving in during the base. Thursday BRO was up off the 18 day EMA; now it just needs to show the volume on the move higher.
Volume: 224K Avg Volume: 356.019K
BUY POINT: $45.75 Volume=534K Target=$51.55 Stop=$44.71
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bro.html
Play Date: 09/16/2004
BSC (Bear Stearns--$88.59; +0.79; optionable): Investment brokerage. Researching to try and pinpoint an exact date. No split history but hearing some rumors of a split if the market continues a run into the late fall and fourth quarter.
BACKGROUND: Last announced some puny 21:20 splits back in 1996 and 1997. Looking for something more substantial this time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice 6.5 month base that used the 200 day SMA (83) as support for the bottom of the pattern. That shows us that even during the selling, the big money was supporting the stock. It has moved laterally and lower the past 4 weeks, forming the handle over the 18 day EMA (87.58). Up off the 18 day Thursday; looks ready, but needs a lot of volume on the breakout.
Volume: 745.5K Avg Volume: 969.688K
BUY POINT: $90.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$100 Stop=$87.97
POSITION: BSC AR - Jan. $90c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CMI (Cummins--$70.26; +0.61; optionable): Manufacturing (truck engines, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 10-12-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CMI has never split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-6-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still a nice test of the low volume breakout in early September, holding over the 18 day EMA (69.70). CMI broke out from a 14 week base in late July, then tested the move through August. Nice test but need to see volume jump as it comes up off of the test and moves through the buy point. Still some solid money flow.
Volume: 473.8K Avg Volume: 715.923K
BUY POINT: $71.44 Volume=1.1M Target=$80 Stop=$69.89
POSITION: CMI LN - Dec. $70c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
Play Date: 09/14/2004
SIE (Sierra Health Services--$45.11; -0.08; optionable): Health care plans. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed the time of release.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3 for 2 split in May 1998 near $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-20-04 at which time no additional shares are authorized, but the company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sie.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 12 week base. Very tight range as it moves laterally over the 10 day EMA (44.63), setting up the breakout move. Extremely quiet action, just what you want to see in a handle. A breakout puts it at an all-time high, free and clear to rally hard. Need to see strong volume on the breakout. A solid market leader.
Volume: 166.4K Avg Volume: 481.905K
BUY POINT: $45.58 Volume=719K Target=$50.55 Stop=$44.22
POSITION: SIE LI - Dec. $45c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sie.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$56.99; +0.49; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. If patterns alone could make you money, this one looks as if it would do it. Still working laterally over the 10 day EMA (56.57) in the handle of the 15 week base that sports excellent 4 to 0 accumulation and money flow that continues to rise ahead of price. Still looks ready. Just waiting for the breakout on some strong trade. May be coming, however, as volume started higher Thursday in an otherwise low volume session.
Volume: 470.1K Avg Volume: 629.663K
BUY POINT: $57.72 Volume=950K Target=$64 Stop=$56.12
POSITION: BCR AY - Jan. $57.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 09/13/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$30.61; -0.06; optionable): Cleaning products for fast food, service industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped above average Tuesday as ECL showed a very nice, tight doji, tapping the 50 day EMA (30.33) on the low and rebounding to close flat. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in its 10 week base is setting up the breakout. Money flow is rallying ahead of the price even as the stock moves laterally. Very nice pattern and looks ready to give us the breakout move.
Volume: 742K Avg Volume: 604K
BUY POINT: $31.04 Volume=894K Target=$35 Stop=$30.42
POSITION: ECL AF - Jan. $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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