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stock ticker, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AAPL; DO; ECL; EXPD; INSP; LSS; RAE; SBAC; SSI; WBSN
Thursday night play results:
CYTC: Another nice doji over the 10 day EMA.
TWTI: Gapped higher as well but it too could not hold the move.
WBSN: Nice surge on strong trade.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
HHH (Internet Hldrs Trust--$60.39; +0.62; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hhh.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally to end last week, forming the handle to its 11 week base. HHH surged on solid trade, setting up the pattern nicely. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the pattern; internets have been working into leadership roles, the most obvious being EBAY. May take a few more sessions to complete the handle, and then it will be ready.
Volume: 286.1K Avg Volume: 406.826K
BUY POINT: $60.84 Volume=525K Target=$67 Stop=$59.88
POSITION: HHH AL - Jan. $60c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hhh.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
GTRC (Guitar Center--$45.26; -0.23; optionable): Guitar stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtrc.html
After Hours: $45.14
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. You would not think a guitar and supply store would make money, but these guys do. The stock is working on a nice lateral, low volume handle to a nice 13 week base. Solid 3 to 0 accumulation in the base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buyers again accumulating the stock and setting the foundation for a new breakout. Money flow is strong as well, moving higher ahead of price as the stock works laterally. Ready to breakout and run to a new high where there is no overhead resistance to force it back down.
Volume: 333.222K Avg Volume: 466.241K
BUY POINT: $46.05 Volume=700K Target=$52 Stop=$45.58
POSITION: UGR BI - Feb. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gtrc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
BMS (Bemis--$25.85; -0.53; optionable): Packaging and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bms.html
STATUS: Put. BMS became very volatile in April and May, then peaked in June and July. It tanked to the 200 day SMA (26.02), managed to bounce back up to the 50 day EMA (26.57), but failed to hold the rebound. It rolled over and then Friday tanked below the 200 day SMA on tremendous trade. Looks ready to at least revisit the August low (24.83). Looking to ride the move down to that level for a solid 60%ish gain; will let it run further if it will.
Volume: 1.002M Avg Volume: 307.519K
BUY POINT: $25.77 Volume=350K Target=$24.72 Stop=$26.04
POSITION: BMS WE - Nov. $25p (-39 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/bms.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
CANI (Carreker--$8.58; -0.44; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cani.html
After Hours: $8.48
STATUS: Put. It ahs been a struggle for CANI, and it is not getting better. A long 6 month move below the 200 day SMA (10.65) cratered to start the month with a gap below the 50 day EMA (9.17); you know it is bad when the 50 day EMA is below the 200 day SMA. It rallied back to the 50 day the past week but failed at that level, selling on rising, average volume. Looks ready to make another drop, and it does not have to go that far to make us a nice 41%ish gain.
Volume: 122.818K Avg Volume: 155.901K
BUY POINT: $8.46 Volume=175K Target=$7.12 Stop=$8.75
POSITION: CDU WB - Nov. $10p (-67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cani.html
Continuing play ready to go:
Play Date: 08/31/2004
LIZ (Liz Claiborne--$38.45; +0.12; optionable): Apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/liz.html
STATUS: Breakout test. LIZ blasted higher to start the month, breaking out from a 5 month double bottom with handle base on solid trade. It has spent the past two months easing back to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA (38.24) on the close. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base. Volume surged well above average Friday as LIZ reached well below the 18 day and then rebounded for a gain. Looks ready to resume the breakout move.
Volume: 902.1K Avg Volume: 617.395K
BUY POINT: $39.14 Volume=881K Target=$43.25 Stop=$38.38
POSITION: LIZ AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/liz.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GMAI, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Starting the break higher on strong volume.
HDWR: Trying to rebound off the 50 day EMA.
QCOM: Gapped down on news it was going to look at restating some royalty accounting. Rallied back to cut its losses in half. Still holding the uptrend, but the test is when it gets back to 40.
GTRC: See above play.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
VASC: Doji at the 18 day EMA in a downtrend that started after VASC peaked in late April.
Upside:
NTMD: Big surge on volume Thursday as the stock started the breakout run again. Took a low volume breather Friday.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock ticker
stock recommendation
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