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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Friday: CELG; ECL; RAE; SONC
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$26.34; -0.04; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $25.63
STATUS: Breakout test. Exploded higher to start the month, making the breakout from a 9 week cup base. Surged to 27 and spent last week easing back, testing the move on lower, below average volume. Holding near 26 on the lows, setting up for the next move higher as money flow surges ahead of price. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. After a couple more days of rest it will be ready to resume the move.
Volume: 4.468M Avg Volume: 4.735M
BUY POINT: $26.85 Volume=7.1M Target=$31 Stop=$25.55
POSITION: UVM BE - Feb. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrvl.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$33.12; -0.15; optionable): Document and file management/storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Easing back Thursday and Friday on lower volume to test the breakout from a short 8 week cup that formed using the 50 day EMA (31.56) as support. A nice quick base after splitting in early July, showing outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). That accumulation shows nothing but buyers and sets the foundation for the breakout and run higher. Tuesday and Thursday IRM surged on strong trade, making the breakout move. The breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it 'proves up' the base and the breakout: buyers come back in after it makes the big move higher, using the first opportunity they get to move in. Super money flow to go along with the accumulation. Looking for a bounce back up on rising volume to enter the play.
Volume: 346K Avg Volume: 343.253K
BUY POINT: $33.65 Volume=500K Target=$38 Stop=$32.97
POSITION: IRY AZ - Jan. $33.38c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$28.50; +0.60; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Really looked hard at MRCY Friday as it moved higher, breaking from the handle. Volume was up, but was heading for average at best. We could have used the volume earlier in the week; a solid week of volume can be sufficient. We held off, waiting to see if the stock can continue the move. Nice 7.5 month base with strong money flow and 7 to 4 accumulation.
Volume: 141.377K Avg Volume: 148.636K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
Play Date: 09/16/2004
TXN (Texas Instruments--$22.08; +0.49; optionable): Semiconductors.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
After Hours: $22.19
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (21.07). Volume jumped Friday on the buyback news, and TXN managed to put together a modest gain. TXN broke higher over the 50 day EMA a week back and has now eased back to test the move on lower, below average volume. Solid rebound, and looking for more positions on the further move higher. Again, TXN is in a very good position to rally toward the 200 day SMA (26.25), and a very good risk/reward position.
Volume: 18.988M Avg Volume: 14.559M
BUY POINT: New: $22.32 (orig. $22.12) Volume=2M Target=$26 Stop=$21.86
POSITION: TXN AT - Jan. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/txn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: And still continues up the 10 day EMA.
BMET: Forecast 9-18-04. No split but solid earnings.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
BRO: Forecast 10-6-04
BSC: Forecast 9-22-04 before the open.
CME: Forecast 10-20-04. Testing the 18 day EMA with a doji. May be ready to try again.
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast 10-5-04
RL: Forecast 11-3-04.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
SIE: Forecast 10-20-04
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
TTC: Forecast 9-21-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Has set up again.
WWY: Forecast 10-26-04
XRAY: Forecast 10-26-04
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays, New buy points:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
GD (General Dynamics--$99.39; +1.14; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-98 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $85. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-5-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice 10 week base has formed along the 50 day EMA (97.44), showing some impressive volume jumps the past two weeks. Friday was another good volume spike, and this time the stock started higher, moving toward the breakout from the base. Money flow is strong, and the stock is stating the move. Looking to move in as volume remains strong. Using options to leverage our position.
Volume: 747.6K Avg Volume: 690.905K
BUY POINT: $100.12 Volume=1M Target=$107 Stop=$98.88
POSITION: GD AT - Jan. $100c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
NFX (Newfield Exploration--$60.17; +1.57; optionable): Oil and gas. Forecast to announce a split 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last split 12-31-96 at $52. Oil and gas stocks are starting to announce splits given the nice runs in the commodity and the stock prices.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. NFX is starting the breakout move from its 7 week cup with handle base using the 50 day EMA (56.11) as support. A good support level as it shows institutional support for the stock. Money flow is surging, supported by solid 3 to 2 accumulation. Volume jumped above average Friday as NFX started the breakout move. Ready to move in on a continued break higher on solid trade.
Volume: 712.7K Avg Volume: 619.988K
BUY POINT: $60.34 Volume=850K Target=$67 Stop=$59.65
POSITION: NFX LL - Dec. $60c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nfx.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
VIP (Vimple Communication--$102.60; -0.42; optionable): Russian wireless telecom. Researching the next date, but in a good position.
BACKGROUND: Has never announced a split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
After Hours: $102.61
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another look at VIP as it has pulled back to the 18 day EMA (101.43) after surging higher last Monday but then reversing as telecoms pulled back a bit. Still holding a solid 23 week double bottom base with solid 6 to 4 accumulation. Looking for volume to rebound as it moves back up off of the candlestick doji it showed Friday.
Volume: 425.8K Avg Volume: 433.755K
BUY POINT: $103.72 Volume=600K Target=$113 Stop=$101.32
POSITION: VIP AA - Jan. $105c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
CME (Chicago Merchantile Exchange--$143.30; +2.50; optionable): Commodities exchange. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings. BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CME has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-21-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cme.html
After Hours: $143.30
STATUS: Breakout test. After a strong breakout in early September from a 9 week double bottom with handle base, CME almost immediately went into test mode. Volume backed off, a good sigh, and it also held above the 18 day EMA (139.78), another good sign. Intraday, however, it was as volatile as the March wind. Thursday it tapped the 18 day on the low and held, showing a nice, tight doji. Friday it found some traction and bounced on rising, but still below average volume. Still a very solid pattern, and money flow has started to turn back higher ahead of price. Looking to move in on a further upside move on stronger trade.
Volume: 421.1K Avg Volume: 595.071K
BUY POINT: $144.68 Volume=650K Target=$157.55 Stop=$142.65
POSITION: CME LI - Dec. $145c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cme.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/16/2004
BSC (Bear Stearns--$88.25; -0.34; optionable): Investment brokerage. Researching to try and pinpoint an exact date. No split history but hearing some rumors of a split if the market continues a run into the late fall and fourth quarter.
BACKGROUND: Last announced some puny 21:20 splits back in 1996 and 1997. Looking for something more substantial this time.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looked as it might be ready Friday, gapping higher on some solid trade. The gap higher was the high for the session, however, and it sold back for a modest loss. It tapped the 18 day EMA (87.65) on the low and managed to rebound some. Still a nice 6.5 month base that used the 200 day SMA (83.08) as support for the bottom of the pattern. That shows us that even during the selling, the big money was supporting the stock. It has moved laterally and lower the past 4 weeks, forming the handle over the 18 day EMA. Just waiting for the strong volume move through the buy point.
Volume: 1.084M Avg Volume: 984.043K
BUY POINT: $90.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$100 Stop=$87.97
POSITION: BSC AR - Jan. $90c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bsc.html
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CMI (Cummins--$70.99; +0.73; optionable): Manufacturing (truck engines, etc.). Forecast to announce a split on 10-12-04 in conjunction with a board meeting or on 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings. The company has not confirmed these dates.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that CMI has never split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-6-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmi.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Friday CMI started moving again, up off of the 18 day EMA (69.84) on rising though still below average volume. It looks ready to resume the breakout move from early September when it moved out of a 5 week consolidation of an earlier 14 week base. Again, volume was better, but it needs to be much better as it continues to move up toward the buy point.
Volume: 557.7K Avg Volume: 715.949K
BUY POINT: $71.44 Volume=1.1M Target=$80 Stop=$69.89
POSITION: CMI LN - Dec. $70c (59 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmi.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
WWY (William Wrigley Jr.--$63.69; +0.63; optionable): Gum. Forecast 10-26-04.
BACKGROUND: Last split 2:1 in March 2001 at $85.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwy.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Moving in a very flat, lateral range over the 18 day EMA (63.09) and 64 on the high. Volume has been jumping on individual sessions during that lateral move. This is forming the right shoulder to the 15 week base. Very solid pattern with money flow strong and turning higher as the stock moves laterally. Looking for a volume breakout that takes it to an all-time high.
Volume: 533.9K Avg Volume: 470.91K
BUY POINT: $64.11 Volume=683K Target=$68 Stop=$62.82
POSITION: WWY LM - Dec. $65c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wwy.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/11/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$56.82; -0.17; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
After Hours: $57.50
STATUS: Cup w/handle. BCR keeps working laterally in a tight range over the 18 day EMA (56.13), forming the three week handle to its 15 week base. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation shows a lot of buyers versus sellers in the base. Money flow is strong, moving ahead of price. Volume has been low; need to see that volume surge as it makes the move through the buy point.
Volume: 372.7K Avg Volume: 635.505K
BUY POINT: $57.72 Volume=950K Target=$64 Stop=$56.12
POSITION: BCR AY - Jan. $57.50c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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