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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Best Plays:
1) AKAM: Very nice position and super money flow.
2) GENZ: A textbook pattern.
3) WYNN: Another excellent base.
4) MOVI: Falling on rising volume.
5) BDX: Volume is rising as it braces for a breakout.
6) NCOG: Strong volume surges.
7) OIS: Volume is rising as it finishes its test.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
MOVI (Movie Gallery--$17.56; -0.23; optionable): Music & video stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/movi.html
After Hours: $17.63
STATUS: Put. MOVI is struggling. It bottomed in August with the overall market, managing to rebound above the 50 day EMA (17.88). That move had no volume, however, and MOVI has been under pressure the past week, breaking below the 50 day EMA Friday on rising, average volume. It closed just over the simple 50 day MA (17.60) Friday, but with money flow diving ahead of price it looks ready to move back down. Does not have to go far to make us a nice 45%ish gain.
Volume: 333.564K Avg Volume: 358.969K
BUY POINT: $17.46 Volume=400K Target=$16.43 Stop=$17.69
POSITION: QLV WW - Nov. $17.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/movi.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
JCP (J.C. Penney--$36.56; -1.17; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcp.html
STATUS: Put. JCP Tried to form an ascending triangle June through August, but it could not make the breakout move. Instead it pinched off in the pattern, unable to breakout. When it gets to the end of the base and cannot make the move, that shows no more buyers ready to step in. The stock starts to fade. JCP slipped below the 50 day EMA (38.12). On Friday volume surged as the stock broke hard lower. May try a test back up toward the 50 day EMA before falling further, but we are willing to start a position on a further move lower and then add on a test.
Volume: 7.443M Avg Volume: 3.004M
BUY POINT: From here: $36.43. Test toward $38, then 37.45 on the way back down. Volume=3M Target=$34.62 Stop=$36.89
POSITION: JCP WC - Nov. $37.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jcp.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$14.93; +0.03; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $15.38
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Making its second try at a base this year. AKAM formed a nice double bottom with handle through June and broke out, but it failed. It has fallen into the current 11 week pattern, holding roughly at the 200 day SMA (13.98) as if forms up. It surged early last week, moving off the 200 and 50 day MA on strong, above average volume, and then eased back to end the week. Outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing solid buying in the pattern and setting up a breakout move. May take couple more sessions to complete the handle, but looks very solid. Strong money flow.
Volume: 1.103M Avg Volume: 2.955M
BUY POINT: $15.52 Volume=4M Target=$18 Stop=$14.98
POSITION: UMU AC - Jan. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
GENZ (Genzyme--$54.66; +0.59; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $54.66
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on the handle to an 8 month base sporting excellent 7 to 2 accumulation; that shows net buyers during the base, setting up the foundation for the breakout. Solid money flow moving ahead of the price adds to the pattern. Biotech is a sector quietly coming back, and GENZ is setting up an excellent pattern.
Volume: 2.394M Avg Volume: 2.473M
BUY POINT: $55.54 Volume=3.5M Target=$62.55 Stop=$54.28
POSITION: GZQ AK - Jan. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$41.46; +0.28; optionable): Casinos, none of which are completed yet.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
After Hours: $41.61
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Though the Las Vegas property is still under construction (200 acres on the strip and includes a golf course) and the Macau casino is still a dream, the stock has formed a very nice 14 week base sporting excellent 4 to 1 accumulation. After a strong Monday move, WYNN moved laterally over the 10 day EMA (40.67) the rest of the week. Money flow is surging ahead of price as it moves laterally. Looks ready for the breakout move.
Volume: 201.444K Avg Volume: 371.668K
BUY POINT: $42.34 Volume=558K Target=$50 Stop=$40.55
POSITION: UWY LH - Dec. $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wynn.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/13/2004
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$50.9; -0.1; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After a strong move Monday, BDX slipped into what looks to be a second handle formed right on top of the other. Very nice 13 week base sporting strong 4 to 1 accumulation and solid money flow. Volume jumped Friday well above average, showing a hammer doji. Looking for the stock to break higher on that same volume.
Volume: 1.175M Avg Volume: 1.053M
BUY POINT: New: $51.45 (orig. $51.25) Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.14
POSITION: BDX LJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdx.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
FFIV (F5 Networks--$30.05; +0.25; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $30.04
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Volume was up Friday but still below average as FFIV strained to continue the move higher. A big break over the 200 day SMA (28.23) Monday then turned laterally to close the week. Surging money flow is leading the stock higher to form the right side of its 8 month base. This test over the 200 day SMA is a good risk/reward position. 5 to 4 accumulation in the base at this point; not bad, and as it rallies it will most likely improve.
Volume: 812.689K Avg Volume: 1.105M
BUY POINT: New: $30.25 (orig. $29.88) Volume=1.3M Target=$34.45 Stop=$28.15
POSITION: FLK AF - Jan. $30c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ffiv.html
Play Date: 09/16/2004
FLS (Flowserve--$24.15; -0.02; optionable): Diversified machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher on strong volume Friday, but could not hold the breakout move from the 11 week base. We were looking for volume to move, and it certainly did. Now the price needs to hold on as it makes the next move. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, and money flow is surging higher ahead of price.
Volume: 415.3K Avg Volume: 295.353K
BUY POINT: $24.44 Volume=415K Target=$28.48 Stop=$23.62
POSITION: FLS BE - Feb. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fls.html
Play Date: 09/09/2004
NCOG (NCO Group--$26.44; +0.17; optionable): Outsourced accounts receivable
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncog.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume has surged the past three sessions, but NCOG has not been able to put away a breakaway move. Friday it was up again but closed well off the intraday high (26.76) when the bell rang. Nice 11 week base that follows a 9 month double bottom with handle. Accumulation in that prior base was an outstanding 10 to 2, showing solid buying during the entire consolidation. Now it just needs to hold the breakout move.
Volume: 257.319K Avg Volume: 147.01K
BUY POINT: New: $26.65 (orig. $26.32) Volume=235K Target=$30 Stop=$25.65
POSITION: GCQ LE - Dec. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncog.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
OIS (Oil States Int.--$17.68; -0.02; no options): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ois.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another tight doji over the 10 day EMA (17.48) Friday as volume moved back above average. Volume has spiked on 4 sessions in the past two weeks. Looks ready to continue the breakout move. The stock broke from a 6 week double bottom with handle base 7 sessions back, moving on strong volume. It is testing that breakout now; the first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the short base shows all buyers. Strong money flow to go with the accumulation.
Volume: 262K Avg Volume: 200.038K
BUY POINT: $17.86 Volume=290K Target=$21 Stop=$17.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ois.html
Play Date: 09/16/2004
TXN (Texas Instruments--$22.08; +0.49; optionable): Semiconductors.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txn.html
After Hours: $22.19
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (21.07). Volume jumped Friday on the buyback news, and TXN managed to put together a modest gain. TXN broke higher over the 50 day EMA a week back and has now eased back to test the move on lower, below average volume. Solid rebound, and looking for more positions on the further move higher. Again, TXN is in a very good position to rally toward the 200 day SMA (26.25), and a very good risk/reward position.
Volume: 18.988M Avg Volume: 14.559M
BUY POINT: New: $22.32 (orig. $22.12) Volume=2M Target=$26 Stop=$21.86
POSITION: TXN AT - Jan. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/txn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
ACDO (Accredo Health--$24.35; -0.55; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
After Hours: $24.35
STATUS: Put. ACDO has struggled at the 18 day EMA (24.37) for the past 7 sessions on low volume. Money flow is still in the tank, and the stock is still under distribution. It may be able to break higher from here, but that is why we look for the volume breakdown to move in.
Volume: 506.71K Avg Volume: 1.062M
BUY POINT: $23.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: DZU VE - Oct. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
RHAT (Red Hat--$15.23; +0.05; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rhat.html
After Hours: $15.23
STATUS: Put. Continues to hold below the 50 day EMA (15.59) after rallying with the market since August. Volume was still low and well below average all the way up the rally to the 50 day. Weak money flow, some distribution; in short, it is still very shaky. After this test, looking for RHAT to turn back down and do some more selling. Looking for a nice 53%ish gain.
Volume: 3.934M Avg Volume: 7.122M
BUY POINT: $14.92 Volume=7M Target=$13.38 Stop=$15.32
POSITION: RCV VC - Oct. $15p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rhat.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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