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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: TXN; INSP; WCN
Best Plays:
1) ADI: Nice break over the 50 day EMA on strong volume.
2) SNDK: After testing the break over the 200 day, ANDK is starting up on stronger trade.
3) LH: Breaking higher on strong trade.
4) AW: Weak and ready to make a break lower.
5) OIS: Still looks solid.
6) MOVI: A doji below the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/20/2004
ADI (Analog Devices--$39.22; +1.65; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
After Hours: $39.23
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong breakout over the 50 day EMA (37.95), clearing the handle to a 15 week base on a strong, above average volume surge. Very similar to SOX overall, ADI has formed a double bottom, surging off the September low, resting to form a handle, and then surging higher again Monday, starting the breakout move. Unlike SOX, ADI did not make a new 2004 low, instead forming more of a 'flying W' double bottom where the right leg holds up above the left leg. Money has started to race into the stock. Looking to pick it up on a continued move with some average or better volume; as the Monday volume was strong we don't have to have huge volume on the next move to enter.
Volume: 7.068M Avg Volume: 4.721M
BUY POINT: $39.42 Volume=4.8M Target=$44 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: ADI LH - Dec. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adi.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
LH (Laboratory Corp.--$42.99; +0.55; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is up as LH starts the breakout move from its 31 week base that formed over the 200 day SMA (39.50), using that key level as support for the right leg. Outstanding 9 to 3 accumulation in the base (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buyers and sets the foundation for the breakout and run. Relative strength is breaking out, a good corroboration of the breakout move.
Volume: 1.079M Avg Volume: 739.772K
BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=750K Target=$49.48 Stop=$42.22
POSITION: LH AV - Jan. $42.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/lh.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
SIMG (Silicon Image--$12.27; +0.23; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
After Hours: $12.23
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SIMG is one semiconductor stock that has held up very well, forming the current 22 week base at its high for the year. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, and it used the 200 day SMA (10.62) as support on the right leg of the base, a further sign of big money support. Volume jumped as the stock moved up off of the 200 day a week back and then eased as SIMG slid back to the 10 day EMA (11.81) to test the move and start the handle. Money flow is surging ahead of the price, and we are looking for SIMG to breakout and follow the money higher.
Volume: 867.614K Avg Volume: 981.454K
BUY POINT: $13.06 Volume=1.5M Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.72
POSITION: QSI CV - Mar. $12.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simg.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
SNDK (Sandisk--$27.22; +0.92; optionable): PC data storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sndk.html
After Hours: $27.40
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Solid action. SNDK slipped into the current 5 month base after the April high, part of a larger base that started in November 2003. A nice volume surge started two weeks back when SNDK rallied up to the 200 day SMA (26.01). It looked ready to stall, but volume faded as it slid along the 200 day SMA. Monday SNDK broke over the 200 day on stronger, above average volume. Money flow is surging ahead of price. Looks ready for a good run.
Volume: 7.852M Avg Volume: 6.466M
BUY POINT: $27.55 Volume=6.5M Target=$33 Stop=$26.88
POSITION: SWQ AY - Jan. $27.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sndk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/20/2004
AW (Allied Waste--$9.31; -0.26; optionable): Waste Management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aw.html
STATUS: Put. In deep trouble. AW rallied back with the market in August, but after a three week lateral move at the 18 day EMA (9.90) AW tanked last week on a big volume surge. A modest rebound to test the 10 day EMA (9.72) and then AW was back to selling Monday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is in the tank, and we are looking for AW to continue to follow it lower. 50%ish gain to the target.
Volume: 2.483M Avg Volume: 1.503M
BUY POINT: $9.22 Volume=1.5M Target=$8.12 Stop=$9.52
POSITION: AW WB - Nov. $10p (-55 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aw.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$14.61; -0.32; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $14.58
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Monday as AKAM continued working on the handle to its 11 week base. AKAM formed a nice double bottom with handle through June and broke out, but it failed. A good surge early last week as AKAM moved through the 200 day SMA (13.99). Outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing solid buying in the pattern and setting up a breakout move. Still may take another session or two, but looks solid. Strong money flow is leading the way.
Volume: 2.522M Avg Volume: 2.889M
BUY POINT: $15.52 Volume=4M Target=$18 Stop=$14.98
POSITION: UMU AC - Jan. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 09/13/2004
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$50.93; +0.03; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 13 week base. Very solid action as it tests the 10 day EMA (50.55) on the lows of the handle. Used the 200 day SMA (47.66) as support for the base, an important level of institutional support. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation and solid money flow. Being patient and waiting for the stock to make the breakout move.
Volume: 578.6K Avg Volume: 1.045M
BUY POINT: New: $51.45 (orig. $51.25) Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.14
POSITION: BDX LJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdx.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
GENZ (Genzyme--$54.28; -0.38; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
After Hours: $54.33
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues the work on an excellent handle, holding over the 18 day EMA (53.88) as it moves laterally on low, below average volume. A well-formed 8 month base with excellent 7 to 2 accumulation and money flow moving higher ahead of the price. Another one we just have to be patient with and let it show us the breakout move.
Volume: 2.036M Avg Volume: 2.444M
BUY POINT: $55.54 Volume=3.5M Target=$62.55 Stop=$54.28
POSITION: GZQ AK - Jan. $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/genz.html
Play Date: 09/15/2004
OIS (Oil States Int.--$18; +0.32; no options): Oil and gas equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/ois.html
STATUS: Test breakout. OIS was up early on some pretty good trade, but we waited to see how it handled the afternoon. It was pulling back in the last half of the afternoon session so we decided to hold off. After hours it was down 0.20. Again, solid volume with some good spikes the past two weeks as OIS broke out from a 6 week double bottom with handle base. Accumulation is a solid 3 to 0; money flow is strong and starting higher ahead of price. Will see if it can start back up Tuesday, showing good resilience.
Volume: 291.9K Avg Volume: 197.863K
BUY POINT: $17.86 Volume=290K Target=$21 Stop=$17.28
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ois.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/09/2004
ACDO (Accredo Health--$24.42; +0.07; optionable): Specialized healthcare
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acdo.html
After Hours: $24.40
STATUS: Put. Continues to move laterally below the 18 day EMA (24.64) for the past week, showing a doji Monday as volume rose to average. The 18 day has acted resistance in the downtrend since the stock rolled over in July. Weak money flow and under distribution. Volume is heading the right way, and now the stock needs to tank.
Volume: 1.281M Avg Volume: 1.05M
BUY POINT: $23.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$21.75 Stop=$24.22
POSITION: DZU WE - Nov. $25p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/acdo.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
MOVI (Movie Gallery--$17.70; +0.14; optionable): Music & video stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/movi.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to rally back Monday, moving above the 50 day EMA (17.87) on the high but then giving the move back on lower, below average volume. MOVI bottomed in August with the overall market, managing to rebound above the 50 day EMA. That move had no volume, and MOVI has fallen to the 50 day SMA (17.59) on rising trade. Monday looks like a feeble rebound attempt. Money flow diving ahead of price; after the reversal at the 50 day EMA Monday it looks as if it is ready to make the drop, but have to see volume moving higher as it moves through the buy point. Does not have to go far to make us a nice 45%ish gain.
Volume: 208.391K Avg Volume: 351.863K
BUY POINT: $17.46 Volume=400K Target=$16.43 Stop=$17.69
POSITION: QLV WW - Nov. $17.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/movi.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
JCP (J.C. Penney--$36.65; +0.09; optionable): Department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcp.html
After Hours: $36.65
STATUS: Put. Monday JCP checked up over 36, bouncing back from the low (36.25) on continued above average volume. May try to bounce and test the 10 or 50 day EMA (37.54, 38.06) before it continues the break lower. JCP tried to form an ascending triangle June through August, but it could not make the breakout move. Instead it pinched off in the pattern, unable to breakout. When it gets to the end of the base and cannot make the move, that shows no more buyers ready to step in. The stock starts to fade. Looking for that low volume test and then another roll over.
Volume: 4.532M Avg Volume: 2.998M
BUY POINT: From here: $36.43. Test toward $38, then 37.45 on the way back down. Volume=3M Target=$34.62 Stop=$36.89
POSITION: JCP WC - Nov. $37.50p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jcp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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