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stock ticker, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: BMS; AAP; INSP; AAPL
Weekend play results:
HHH: Still working laterally in the handle of its base.
GTRC: Volume was up as the stock slid back to the 10 day EMA. Still in the pattern but needs to hold here.
BMS: Diving below the 200 day SMA.
CANI: Gapped lower but rebounded to flat. Still weak.
LIZ: Still ready to move up off the 18 day EMA.
New plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/20/2004
CNLG (Conolog--$5.25; +0.82; no options): Electronic and electromagnetic components for telephone, radio, microwave transmission and reception
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnlg.html
After Hours: $5.05
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CNLG has formed a rather abrupt handle to its 19 week base. After wandering in ignominy through 2002 and 2003, CNLG came to life early this year. After a strong move it slipped into the current base. Volume dried up to nothing on the lows hit in August, then exploded in September as the stock rallied to form the right side of the base. A quick pullback on lower volume to end last week, and then a rebound Monday on a solid shot of above average volume. Accumulation is a solid 4 to 2 (4 up price weeks on rising volume to one down price week on rising volume) shows net buyers during the base. Money flow is racing ahead of price. Looks as if CNLG is ready to follow it higher once again.
Volume: 1.811M Avg Volume: 420.863K
BUY POINT: $5.38 Volume=1M Target=$7.75 Stop=$4.99
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cnlg.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
MSTR (Microstrategy--$42.08; +1.11; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $41.98
STATUS: Test BO. MSTR set up similar to the chips, hitting a low in August and then moving up to its 50 day EMA (38.01). From there it gapped over the 50 day on tremendous volume. It then faded last week to test the move, holding over the 10 day EMA (40.01) and then starting back up Monday. No real volume on the Monday move, however, something we need to see change on a further move higher. Solid money flow has jumped ahead of the stock and is leading higher. Can run like the wind when it gets going, and looking for a run near the 200 day SMA (48.26) for starters. Nice trend reversal gap and test. Now it is ready to move back up.
Volume: 348.452K Avg Volume: 392.09K
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=575K Target=$48 Stop=$41.98
POSITION: EOU AI - Jan. $45c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mstr.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$31.68; +0.95; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
After Hours: $31.62
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice set up, tapping to a new 2004 in August, bouncing, then fading to a lower low in September. Volume then shot higher as the chips were grabbed up two weeks back. A quick test of the 18 day EMA and then SMH broke over the 50 day EMA (31.29) Monday on another impressive volume surge. May come back to test the break over the 50 day Tuesday, but we are looking to pick up some shares on the continued move higher.
Volume: 33.121M Avg Volume: 21.455M
BUY POINT: $31.92 Volume=21M Target=$36 Stop=$31.25
POSITION: SMH AF - Jan. $30c (78 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smh.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
XLNX (Xilinx--$29.65; +1.11; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
After Hours: $29.51
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Kind of a neat pattern. XLNX made a 2004 low in August and then slightly undercut that low in September. It bounced form there on strong volume to the 50 day EMA (28.90). It fell back from that level but then surged Friday and Monday, breaking over the 50 day Monday on stronger, above average volume. One of the chip stocks that is mirroring the SOX in a double bottom. It also is a trend reversal move: it moved lower below the 18 day EMA since June, but then bolted over that level two weeks back, tested the trend last Wednesday, and has started back up. Looks ready to make a good run.
Volume: 10.677M Avg Volume: 7.068M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=8M Target=$35 Stop=$28.98
POSITION: XLQ AF - Jan. $30c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xlnx.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GMAI, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
COH: Has fought back from a toppy pattern in July. A very abrupt pattern, but after a good August to September rally it has tested back to the 18 day EMA on low volume. Looking for a strong break higher from here.
JNPR: Held the 10 day EMA and started up Monday. Could use some more volume.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
CBT: Double topped in July and September, and then dumped to the 200 day SMA. It has rebounded to the 50 day EMA and is looking ready to turn back over.
AW: Dumped lower last week on massive volume, rallied back on lower trade, and then rolled back over Monday on once more above average volume. Looks ugly.
Upside:
DYN: Strong volume move Friday and Monday as DYN breaks from a 4 month flat base that is part of a larger 9 month cup pattern.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock ticker
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