stock watch, stock split

Begin 4 of 4

ASW (ACLN Ltd--$39.06; -1.02; no options): Former ACLNF (Shipping).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aclnf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 8-14-00 at a stock price of $39. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ASW made a solid breakout Wednesday, continuing the move up that started last week at its 18 day MVA (36.48). It hit a high today at 40.98 with a short gap up, but turned back down intraday. Volume on the selling was much lower than we have seen on the recent rise, however, at 85,300 (average 141,500), and the closing price held the July closing high of 38.80. So far that is in control and not a problem, but ASW has shown a lot of volatility so we will watch carefully for movement from here. We are looking for this low-volume pullback to hold here, and if it can we will look for it to continue its run. The stock shows excellent money flow and buying. Target: 48.
BUY POINT: After holding the 39 range, a move back over 40 on above average volume. Stop: 37.20.
POSITION: Stock only.

BRL (Barr Laboratories--$82.55; -0.79; optionable): No announcement, but a bounce with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BRL pulled back and tested its breakout over the June high, holding that supor and now trying to move up. It moved back over its short-term MVA's Monday, but volume was weak and it had a unexciting day today, tapping back to its 10 day (81.65) at its low and closing with a loose doji. Volume remained light at 577,900 (average 798,300). Not much of a pattern, but will see if it can hold the 10 day and make a move on its high (from late July) at 90.60. Target on a breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: Over 85 on above average volume. Stop: 79.05.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $80 calls to buy (BRL KP).

BRO (Brown & Brown--$47.90; -0.10; no options): Insurance Brokers. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with its regularly scheduled board meeting. The stock price was $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-18-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: BRO has pulled into another tight, lateral consolidation after having failed on its recent breakout attempt. It continues to hold over its 18 day MVA (47.73) and right in the range of its consolidation range before the breakout. It has shown five dojis in a row, but volume has picked up substantially in recent sessions, coming in today at 90,500 (average 48,100). Perhaps the volume surge presages another big move. Excellent relative strength and very solid money flow. Target on a breakout: 60.
BUY POINT: Breakout: A move back over 50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 46.50. Aggressive: 48.80 on continued strong volume. Stop: 45.38.
POSITION: Stock only.

CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$74.55; +0.33; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH has dipped back to test its July breakout of a small saucer, holding those highs (at its 50 day MVA, 72.85). After a strong push up from support last Friday the stock has run up against the short-term MVA's (18 day at 74.79), with volume dipping back considerably (81,600 today; average 138,100). Off of today's doji we could see another visit to the 50 day, but are looking for a solid, strong recovery move. Target: 86.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 76 on above average volume. Stop: 70.68. Breakout: 78.12 on continued strong volume. Stop: 72.65.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (CBH IN). Breakout: Stock and/or September $75 calls to buy (CBH IO).

CEFT (Concord EFS--$56.38; +0.02; optionable): Did not get the announcement with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
STATUS: CEFT made a strong move back up last Friday, pulling back over its 50 day and short-term MVA's (54.52 and 55.89, respectively), but the stock has cooled off and moved laterally with dojis the last two sessions. Volume has mellowed as well (1.29 million today; average 3.38 million), so we will look for it to hold here. It is still potentially a bearish head and shoulders pattern, but if it can hold and move up from here we will see how it handles its late-July consolidation up to its high of 61.65. Good sector. Target on a breakout: 69-72.
BUY POINT: Momentum: Over 58.30 on above average volume. Stop: 54.22.
POSITION: September $55 calls to buy (EQF IJ).

FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$63.73; -0.20; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 6-20-00 at a stock price of $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: FITB continues to just gradually move along. It was in an extended handle to a cup, but has gradually pushed up along its 18 day MVA (62.80) to move out of the handle range. It was looking good with a move out of a recent cluster of dojis that formed with strong volume, but after hitting up to 64.74 the stock pulled back for another doji. Looks like it will pull back again, and this gradually ascending pattern could lead to a drop back, so we will see if it again hold the 18 day on a pullback, and try on another move with some very heavy volume on a run out of the pattern. Target on breakout: 75.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 64.86, on volume of 2.3 million (average 1.58 million; Friday 1.4 million). Stop: 59.73.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $60 calls to buy (FTQ KL).

FNM (Fannie Mae--$85.20; +1.11; optionable): Mortgage Investment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:1 split in 1996, splitting at $120.
STATUS: Continuing in its long handle to a cup, and made a good move today as it tries to make its way back up (the handle high, from late June, is at 87.87). It gapped up and ran to close over its recent highs, and the handle will be a saucer pattern itself if it can continue this move. Continued consumer spending and the prospects of even lower interest rates spurring it on. We will look for the momentum to continue back up toward the handle high and beyond. Relative strength has broken out, and money flow is strong. Target on breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 86 on continued strong volume (3.76 million; average 2.97 million). Stop: 80. Breakout: 90 on volume of 4.5 million. Stop: 83.70.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $80 calls to buy (FNM IP). Breakout: Stock and/or September $85 calls to buy (FNM IQ).

MIKE (Michaels Stores--$39.15; +0.05; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: After the recent breakout move, (out of an extended handle to a cup), MIKE has given it all back with some strong selling. It is now back in the range of its June-July consolidation, just under the 50 day (39.51), showing dojis the last five sessions. Perhaps it will mount a move off of this pattern, but for positions we will need to see a sustained move over resistance. The 18 day MVA is at 40.30, and the high in the pattern is at 44.69.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: To 42 on above average volume (230,000; today 137,300). Stop: 39.06.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $40 calls to buy (IKQ IH).

POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:

COBZ (Cobiz--$15.00; +0.61; no options): Banking. Split 3:2 effective August 14.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cobz.html
STATUS: COBZ made a big move on the split, gapping up over its recent highs in its pennant pattern (14.91) and hitting as high as 15.25 (over the all-time closing high of 15.16; the all-time high is 16.53) before pulling back to close. The gap-up and reversal typically spells a further drop, but we will look for COBZ to hold the 14.66 range and then continue its strength post-split.
PLAY: After holding 14.66 on a pullback on lower volume (up to 24,400 today; average 10,000), a move back over 15.16, with stock. 14.10.

ESRX (Express Scripts--$55.84; -0.28; optionable): Split 2:1 June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: Still within the pennant pattern (formed on a pullback from the mid-July breakout, high: 61.45), moving laterally as it holds over the 50 day MVA (53.28) and recent lows. ESRX is showing some signs of moving up out of the pattern, but low volume is still a problem. After pulling up over the short-term MVAs Monday and hitting our aggressive buy point, ESRX tested back through them today (10 day 55.15), before closing with a loose "hammer" doji on decreased, below average volume of 796,300 (average 830,900). We are looking for the stock to hold here, a fall through this level would continue its steep down trendline from July. Volume has favored the downside moves in this pattern, so it could take a bit of time before the stock musters a move back up. Previous breakout target: 64.
PLAY: 58.82 on above average volume with stock and/or November $55 calls to buy (XTQ KK). Stop: 54.70.

GENZ (Genzyme--$55.76; -0.95; optionable): Biotechnology. Split 2:1 effective 6-4-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/genz.html
STATUS: Still erratic and searching for a pattern. Nothing new for now. We are dropping GENZ from the report, but will continue to keep it on our watch list.

JNJ (Johnson & Johnson--$56.99; +1.29; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: The momentum continues. JNJ hit another new high today on increased volume of 11.51 million (average 6.56 million). The stock is still showing strength, and is still a buy on this breakout up to 57.73 on continued strong volume. New target: 66.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up to 57.73 on continued strong volume. Stop: 53.69.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or October $50 calls to buy (JNJ JJ).

LH (Laboratory Corp--$83.29; -0.71; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: LH is slowly edging up in the current consolidation, formed after a pullback from the recent breakout high of 91.35 (off of a 6-month cup with handle). The stock is now within the range of the short-term MVAs (10 day 83.38) and over the early June handle high (82.50), today showing a loose doji that tapped down toward the 50 day (80.87) before pulling up to close. Volume remains below average, falling today to 305,500 (average 555,500). This is not the strongest pattern, but the stock has generally held support at the 50 day, and we may see a bounce up from here on solid volume carry the stock up to the range of the left-side (and all-time) high at 91.50.
PLAY: Aggressive: A move over 85, on stronger than average volume. Stop: 78.59.
POSITION: Stock and/or September 80 call to buy.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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