|
|
us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Tuesday: BSC; CME; NCEN; QCOM; RIMM; SNDK; VLO; ZBRA
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/21/2004
AIRN (Airspan Networks--$5.35; +0.15; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/airn.html
After Hours: $5.33
STATUS: Cup. AIRN is coming off of a test of the 10 day EMA (5.14) after surging through the 200 day SMA (4.75) earlier in the month. It is working on a 20 week base sporting excellent 7 to 1 accumulation while it still has a lot of work to do on the right side of the base; very solid buying ongoing even as it consolidates. Looking for volume to surge as AIRN moves up off of the test and through the buy point.
Volume: 214.909K Avg Volume: 361.747K
BUY POINT: $5.54 Volume=543K Target=$6.95 Stop=$5.34
POSITION: AHQ AA - Jan. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/airn.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/20/2004
MSTR (Microstrategy--$41.87; -0.21; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $41.85
STATUS: Test BO. Took a breather Tuesday on lower, below average volume as it pauses coming off of the 10 day EMA (40.35). MSTR set up similar to the chips, hitting a low in August and then moving up to its 50 day EMA (38.16). From there it gapped over the 50 day on tremendous volume. It then faded last week to test the move, holding over the 10 day EMA. Still no volume, something we need to see change on a further move higher. Solid money flow has jumped ahead of the stock and is leading higher. Can run like the wind when it gets going, and looking for a run near the 200 day SMA (48.20) for starters. Nice trend reversal gap and test.
Volume: 305.685K Avg Volume: 411.744K
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=575K Target=$48 Stop=$41.98
POSITION: EOU AI - Jan. $45c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mstr.html
Play Date: 09/07/2004
MRCY (Mercury Computer Systems--$28.05; -0.22; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrcy.html
After Hours: $28.03
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Did not have any strong volume on the actual break higher, but as it faded back tot test the 10 day EMA (27.82) on the Tuesday low and showing a nice, tight doji at that level. Volume surged Tuesday as it made that test. With the surging money flow, the volume spike, and the doji, it looks ready to make the move higher. Nice 7.5 month base with strong money flow and 7 to 4 accumulation.
Volume: 481.507K Avg Volume: 146.727K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=216K Target=$32 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: QYR KE - Nov. $25c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mrcy.html
Continuing downside plays:
Play Date: 09/15/2004
BLL (Ball Corp.--$35.90; -0.14; optionable): Packaging and containers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bll.html
STATUS: Put. Continues its struggle below the 50 day EMA (36.39) after dumping lower two weeks back on strong volume. Money flow continues to slide lower and the stock is still under distribution. Volume moved higher Tuesday as BLL started to slide lower. Looks ready to fall right on through the buy point.
Volume: 623.8K Avg Volume: 436.913K
BUY POINT: $35.75 Volume=607K Target=$33.72 Stop=$36.45
POSITION: BLL WU - Nov. $37.50p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bll.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Researching next date.
BMET: No split on 9-18 but setting up again for another breakout attempt.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
BRO: Forecast 10-6-04
BSC: Forecast 9-22-04 before the open. Nice move late in the session. Now we see what Wednesday brings.
CME: Forecast 10-20-04.
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FDX: Forecast 9-22-04. Need to be careful. A solid run to this point ahead of earnings.
GD: Forecast 10-20-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast 10-5-04
NFX: Forecast 10-26-04
RL: Forecast 11-3-04.
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
SIE: Forecast 10-20-04
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
TTC: Forecast 9-21-04. No split announced. Never gave us a decent entry point.
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Foreign. Researching the next potential date.
WWY: Forecast 10-26-04
XRAY: Forecast 10-26-04
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays, New buy points:
Play Date: 09/21/2004
FLIR (Flir Systems--$63.96; +0.84; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-24-03 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price was $48.94. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-21-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
After Hours: $63
STATUS: Flat base. FLIR is setting up again in a 9 week flat base banging around between 60 and 65. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the current pattern shows buyers accumulating shares as the stock moves laterally over the 50 day EMA (59.82). Setting up once more for the next nice run. No problem entering before any split announcement.
Volume: 318.312K Avg Volume: 603.831K
BUY POINT: $64.72 Volume=906K Target=$74 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: FFQ AM - Jan. $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/flir.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
SBUX (Starbucks--$45.73; +0.13; optionable): High priced coffee. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-20 -01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-23-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-30-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
After Hours: $45.65
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. SBUX had some trouble when it projected 8% earnings growth instead of the usual double digits. That gapped it lower in late August, but it held the low for that month and had rallied back to 46, the 'hump' in the 8 week pattern. Even during all of this up and down it roughly held the 50 day EMA (45.22), a good sign of institutional support. It has spent the last week walking along the 18 day EMA (45.05) as it rises to meet it. Looking for volume to move in and send it higher once more.
Volume: 2.242M Avg Volume: 3.305M
BUY POINT: $46.42 Volume=5M Target=$51.55 Stop=$45.21
POSITION: SQX AI - Jan. $45c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Play Date: 08/18/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$86.30; +0.40; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that KMRT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-25-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $86.29
STATUS: Breakout test. KMRT broke out form a double bottom with handle in early September, and rallied to 90. It ha snow faded back to test the move, holding at the 10 day EMA (85.40) on overall lower volume. Strong money flow still, and solid 6 to 1 accumulation. This is the first real test after the breakout, one of our favorite entry points.
Volume: 1.44M Avg Volume: 2.798M
BUY POINT: New: 87.05 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/11/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$51.66; +0.45; optionable): Dental instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.80. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
After Hours: $51.59
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 11 week base, holding the 18 day EMA on low volume and showing dojis at that level. That often indicates a change of momentum ahead. A solid 10 week base sporting excellent 5 to 2 accumulation shows buyers moving into the stock during the base as they set the foundation for a breakout. Money flow remains strong as the stock works laterally over the 18 day (51.17). Just waiting for the breakout on volume as it moves to an all-time high.
Volume: 253.153K Avg Volume: 347.274K
BUY POINT: $52.38 Volume=494K Target=$58 Stop=$51.12
POSITION: XEQ AJ - Jan. $50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$29.02; +0.47; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $29.10
STATUS: Breakout test. After a nice surge two weeks back, CTSH has eased back to the 10 day EMA (28.68) on low, below average volume. As it pulls back it is holding over the February high, the high on the left side of the base as the stock corrected and started the base. Nice test, and this first breakout is a great entry point.
Volume: 542.93K Avg Volume: 1.2M
BUY POINT: New: 29.55 Volume=1.6M Target=$39.25 Stop=$28.54
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$33.50; +0.42; optionable): Document and file management/storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume spiked Tuesday as IRM moved up to the buy point, but backed off on the close. Still very solid in its short 8 week cup that formed using the 50 day EMA (31.69) as support. A nice quick base after splitting in early July, showing outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume). That accumulation shows nothing but buyers and sets the foundation for the breakout and run higher. The breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it 'proves up' the base and the breakout: buyers come back in after it makes the big move higher, using the first opportunity they get to move in. Super money flow to go along with the accumulation. Looks ready to make the breakout and make it stick.
Volume: 962.3K Avg Volume: 342.925K
BUY POINT: $33.65 Volume=500K Target=$38 Stop=$32.97
POSITION: IRY AZ - Jan. $33.38c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$33.26; 0.00; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $33.23
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Now YHOO is forming the handle to the 11 week cup base YHOO has etched out above the 200 day SMA (26.70), using that key level as support. It has moved laterally the past week, waiting on the 10 day EMA (32.29) to catch up with it; when it does that often send the stock to the breakout. Positive accumulation in the base as it sets up for the breakout. Just need to see that volume ramp up as it makes the next breakout move.
Volume: 17.068M Avg Volume: 20.405M
BUY POINT: New: 34.05 Volume=25M Target=$40 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yhoo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock split
|
