Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Wednesday: CWTR; AAI; ERES; JCP
Tuesday night play results:
AIRN: Volume was up. Looks ready to make the breakout.
FSL: Nice doji at the 10 day EMA.
SIMG: Still working on the handle.
ERES: Nice downside move.
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 09/22/2004
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$71.99; +0.57; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Test 50 day SMA. STJ formed a small reverse head and shoulders from mid-July to September, broke out. It has come back to test the move, falling to the 50 day EMA (69.76) and then rebounding Tuesday and Wednesday on much stronger volume. In a fading market STJ looks strong.
Volume: 1.792M Avg Volume: 1.205M
BUY POINT: $72.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$76.55 Stop=$71.65
POSITION: STJ AN - Jan. $70c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stj.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/22/2004
BWA (Borg Warner--$43.42; -0.31; optionable): Auto parts
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bwa.html
STATUS: Put. Tried to set up a cup with handle base, even breaking out in late August. It came back for a test, tried to hold the 50 day EMA (44.33). It could not hold, however, and tanked through that level and the 200 day SMA (43.70). It has rebounded this week on lower and lower volume, fading from the 200 day Wednesday on rising, much stronger volume. Money flow is tanking. Ready to move in and ride it down for a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 331.3K Avg Volume: 389.982K
BUY POINT: $43.22 Volume=390K Target=$41.15 Stop=$43.75
POSITION: BWA VI - Nov. $45p (-79 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bwa.html
Play Date: 09/22/2004
EYE (Visx--$20.44; -0.77; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eye.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied with the market in August and early September, but two tries at the 200 day SMA (21.77) failed and now EYE is heading lower. Looking to ride it toward a rendezvous with the August low near 18 for a 47%ish gain. Money flow stinks and the entire upside move was on below average volume.
Volume: 329K Avg Volume: 481.222K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=485K Target=$18.25 Stop=$20.68
POSITION: EYE WX - Nov. $22.50p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eye.html
Play Date: 09/22/2004
OEX (S&P 100--$536.84; -7.90; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oex.html
STATUS: Put. Failed at the 200 day SMA (547) and broke through the 50 day EMA (540) on rising, above average volume. It managed to hold the 50 day SMA (536.59) on the close, but it popped support after failing at key resistance. Some support at 530, but ready to start some positions on a further move lower & then look at some more positions on any test. Looking for a 50%ish gain if it can make it to the target.
Volume: 1.379M Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $536.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$522 Stop=$537.88
POSITION: OEB WG - Nov. $535p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/oex.html
Play Date: 09/22/2004
SFD (Smithfield Foods--$24.76; -0.89; optionable): Meat products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sfd.html
STATUS: Put. SFD gapped down in early August, gapping below the 200 day SMA (25.83) it rallied back with the market, even clearing the 200 day. That move failed, however, and SFD was tanking hard Wednesday on very strong, above average volume. Money flow is in the toilet and SFD has suffered some heavy distribution. Looking to rise it down toward the August low for a 55%ish gain.
Volume: 1.157M Avg Volume: 714.631K
BUY POINT: $24.64 Volume=715K Target=$23.04 Stop=$25.05
POSITION: SFD WE - Nov. $25p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sfd.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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