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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CAND; AMSG; PMCS; MXIM; LH
Best Plays:
1) STJ: Showing excellent volume after a good move up off the 50 day EMA.
2) CHKP: Turning lower at the 18 day EMA.
3) EYE: Rolling over hard after failing twice at the 200 day SMA.
4) STLD: Nice breakout test.
5) TDS: Another test of the short term MA is setting up the next move.
6) ULTI: Nice low volume test of the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/22/2004
STJ (St. Jude Medical--$71.99; +0.57; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stj.html
STATUS: Test 50 day SMA. STJ formed a small reverse head and shoulders from mid-July to September, broke out. It has come back to test the move, falling to the 50 day EMA (69.76) and then rebounding Tuesday and Wednesday on much stronger volume. In a fading market STJ looks strong.
Volume: 1.792M Avg Volume: 1.205M
BUY POINT: $72.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$76.55 Stop=$71.65
POSITION: STJ AN - Jan. $70c (67 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stj.html
Play Date: 09/22/2004
GLDN (Golden Telecom--$30.41; +0.49; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gldn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. GLDN just moved past the 200 day SMA (28.77) two weeks back, and has moved laterally over that support level, forming the handle to its 7 month base. A big mover for us in 2004, and now it has set up again. Volume was back up and above average Wednesday as GLDN moved up out of the handle. Looking to move in on a continued volume gain; this one is a sleeper to most of the market.
Volume: 80.69K Avg Volume: 70.895K
BUY POINT: $30.75 Volume=106K Target=$35.88 Stop=$29.88
POSITION: QDV LF - Dec. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gldn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/22/2004
CHKP (Check Point Software--$17.95; -0.81; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chkp.html
After Hours: $17.95
STATUS: Put. Nasty plunge from July to August. It rebounded off the lows with the market, but when it got to the 50 day EMA (19.32) it stalled. A nice fade to the 18 day EMA (18.55), but then could not hold, tanking Wednesday on a much stronger volume shot. Money flow is in the toilet and swirling lower, relative strength is plunging. Looking to move in and ride it down for a 44ish gain.
Volume: 3.276M Avg Volume: 3.579M
BUY POINT: $17.87 Volume=3.5M Target=$16.35 Stop=$18.28
POSITION: KEQ WD - Nov. $20p (-75 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chkp.html
Play Date: 09/22/2004
EYE (Visx--$20.44; -0.77; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eye.html
STATUS: Put. Rallied with the market in August and early September, but two tries at the 200 day SMA (21.77) failed and now EYE is heading lower. Looking to ride it toward a rendezvous with the August low near 18 for a 47%ish gain. Money flow stinks and the entire upside move was on below average volume.
Volume: 329K Avg Volume: 481.222K
BUY POINT: $20.32 Volume=485K Target=$18.25 Stop=$20.68
POSITION: EYE WX - Nov. $22.50p (-69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/eye.html
Play Date: 09/22/2004
OEX (S&P 100--$536.84; -7.90; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oex.html
STATUS: Put. Failed at the 200 day SMA (547) and broke through the 50 day EMA (540) on rising, above average volume. It managed to hold the 50 day SMA (536.59) on the close, but it popped support after failing at key resistance. Some support at 530, but ready to start some positions on a further move lower & then look at some more positions on any test. Looking for a 50%ish gain if it can make it to the target.
Volume: 1.379M Avg Volume: 1.3M
BUY POINT: $536.55 Volume=1.3M Target=$522 Stop=$537.88
POSITION: OEB WG - Nov. $535p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/oex.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/20/2004
ADI (Analog Devices--$38.37; -1.04; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
After Hours: $38.40
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still easing back on lower volume, not biting on the selling. It eased back toward the 50 day EMA (38.02) on below average trade, still holding the strong break over the 50 day Monday. On the Monday move it cleared the handle to a 15 week double bottom we call a 'flying W' double bottom where the right leg holds up above the left leg. Looking to pick it up on a rebound off the 50 day EMA on rising trade.
Volume: 3.689M Avg Volume: 4.834M
BUY POINT: $39.42 Volume=4.8M Target=$44 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: ADI LH - Dec. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/adi.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
AKAM (Akami Technologies--$14.5; -0.18; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/akam.html
After Hours: $14.55
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Similar to ADI, AKAM is pulling back to test the strong break over the 50 day EMA (14.19) last week, easing back on lower and lower volume. AKAM formed a nice 11 week double bottom with handle through June and broke out, but it failed. A good surge early last week as AKAM moved through the 200 day SMA (14.01). Outstanding 5 to 0 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume), showing solid buying in the pattern and setting up a breakout move. Strong money flow is still way out ahead of the stock.
Volume: 1.414M Avg Volume: 2.937M
BUY POINT: $15.52 Volume=4M Target=$18 Stop=$14.98
POSITION: UMU AC - Jan. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/akam.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
SIMG (Silicon Image--$12.32; -0.19; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Continues its solid work on its handle, ignoring the selling and preparing for the next breakout move. As noted before, SIMG is one semiconductor stock that has held up very well, forming the current 22 week base at its high for the year. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, and it used the 200 day SMA (10.67) as support on the right leg of the base, a further sign of big money support. Volume jumped as the stock moved up off of the 200 day a week back and then eased as SIMG slid back to the 10 day EMA (12.01) to test the move and start the handle. Money flow is surging ahead of the price, and we are looking for SIMG to breakout and follow the money higher.
Volume: 1.3M Avg Volume: 981.454K
BUY POINT: $13.06 Volume=1.5M Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.72
POSITION: QSI CV - Mar. $12.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simg.html
Play Date: 09/07/2004
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$35.78; -0.42; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
After Hours: $35.78
STATUS: Breakout test. STLD delivered a nice surge for us in early September as it broke from a 7 week flat consolidation that formed over the 50 day EMA (32.51). Outstanding volume on the breakout, and now it has come back to test the 18 day EMA (34.92). Volume picked up the past two sessions, but not necessarily bad as STLD has held the 18 day EMA on the intraday low and rebounded on to recoup much of the losses. Looking to pick up some more positions on the next bounce higher.
Volume: 1.228M Avg Volume: 891.631K
BUY POINT: New: $36.11 (orig. $34.62) Volume=750K Target=$39 Stop=$36.38
POSITION: RQL BG - Feb. $35c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/stld.html
Play Date: 08/02/2004
TDS (Telephone & Data Sys.--$82; +0.02; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tds.html
STATUS: Breakout test. TDS is making another test of the July breakout from its 4.5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It has spent the past week coming back to test the 10 day EMA (81.64), showing a nice doji at that level Wednesday. Money flow is still surging higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready for another breakout.
Volume: 143.8K Avg Volume: 152.653K
BUY POINT: New: 82.42 (orig. $77.46) Volume=265K Target=New positions: $88.55 (orig. $82.38) Stop=$82.15
POSITION: TDS KO - Nov. $75c (64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tds.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$12.56; -0.23; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
After Hours: $12.54
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Taking a lower volume breather after the strong breakout surge Tuesday. Nice 15 week base sporting strong 9 to 3 accumulation; the accumulation shows strong buying as the stock took a breather and weeded out the weak holders during the base. After this breather in a weak market we are looking for ULTI to continue the break higher on rising trade.
Volume: 96.769K Avg Volume: 150.522K
BUY POINT: $12.95 Volume=224K Target=$14.95 Stop=$12.44
POSITION: JUL BV - Feb. $12.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ulti.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$32.47; -0.79; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $32.55
STATUS: Cup w/handle. YHOO is forming the handle to the 11 week cup base YHOO has etched out above the 200 day SMA (26.75), using that key level as support. It has moved laterally the past week, waiting on the 10 day EMA (32.32) to catch up with it. Wednesday it decided to move lower to meet that level. It may take another session or two, but it is setting up well for the next breakout.
Volume: 22.231M Avg Volume: 20.493M
BUY POINT: New: 34.05 Volume=25M Target=$40 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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