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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
We apologize for the later report. We have had to prepare for possible problems related to Ivan.
THE PLAYS
Good moves Thursday: TZOO; BLL; BWP; SFD
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/23/2004
TASR (Taser--$38.78; +0.09; optionable): Stun guns
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tasr.html
After Hours: $38.65
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a huge surge a week back on news of a personal stun gun for us mere civilians, TASR has eased back to form a handle to its 5.5 month base. Nice low volume pullback to the 10 day EMA (37.59) is setting up a nice handle, shaking out those that bought in earlier. Solid 7 to 2 accumulation. Looking for that volume to return as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 6.164M Avg Volume: 10.754M
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=12M Target=$47.49 Stop=$39.05
POSITION: QUR LH - Dec. $40c (54 delta) &.or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tasr.html
Play Date: 09/23/2004
BLUD (Immucor--$23.22; +0.87; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/blud.html
After Hours: $23.30
STATUS: Breakout. BLUD is now making the move out of its 12 week Cup w/handle base. Volume jumped as it made the move, using the strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base to make the break higher. Relative strength broke out as well, a good corroboration of the breakout move. Solid move and looking to start a position on a further move higher from here and then take some more positions on the first test.
Volume: 636.721K Avg Volume: 281.2K
BUY POINT: $23.48 Volume=300K Target=$27 Stop=$22.95
POSITION: QMQ LX - Dec. $22.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/blud.html
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/23/2004
VLO (Valero Energy--$75.59; -0.06; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Splits 2:1 on 10-8-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vlo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. When the news regarding the SPR came out, VLO started to fall so we took the rest of a nice gain off the table. It rebounded, continuing the lateral move of the past two sessions. VLO shot higher Tuesday and is now moving laterally, holding a narrow range on the close. Has formed a nice 11 week base around the 50 day EMA (69.60). It could move laterally for another session or two, further setting up the handle and the breakout move. Just being patient and letting make the next move for another nice gain.
Volume: 1.792M Avg Volume: 2.308M
BUY POINT: $76.65 Volume=3.5M Target=$83.45 Stop=$75.55
POSITION: VLO LO - Dec. $75c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vlo.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/21/2004
AIRN (Airspan Networks--$5.33; -0.2; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/airn.html
STATUS: Cup. Lost a bit of ground Thursday after trying the breakout move Wednesday. Volume backed off to below average as AIRN tapped the 10 day EMA (5.24) on the low and rebounded to cut its losses. Nice 20 week base sporting excellent 7 to 1 accumulation. Money flow is rising ahead of price. After this test it looks ready to try once more.
Volume: 219.46K Avg Volume: 353.13K
BUY POINT: $5.54 Volume=543K Target=$6.95 Stop=$5.34
POSITION: AHQ AA - Jan. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/airn.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
MSTR (Microstrategy--$41.88; -0.07; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mstr.html
After Hours: $41.85
STATUS: Test BO. Still working laterally after the strong surge over the 50 day EMA (38.44) two weeks back. Solid money flow continues to move higher ahead of the price as it holds up very well in the market selling. Need to see the volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 370.176K Avg Volume: 392.446K
BUY POINT: $42.55 Volume=575K Target=$48 Stop=$41.98
POSITION: EOU AI - Jan. $45c (42 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mstr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Researching next date as it eases back, testing the move.
BMET: No split on 9-18. Continues setting up for another breakout attempt.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
BRO: Forecast 10-6-04
BSC: No split 9-22-04 before the open. Got caught up in the MWD earnings miss, but it has held well, hanging tough at the 18 day EMA.
CME: Forecast 10-20-04.
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FDX: Reported solid earnings 9-22, but sold on the news. As noted, it ran into the earnings and had nothing left.
FLIR: Forecast 10-20-04
GD: Forecast 10-20-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Researching next possible date.
NCEN: Forecast 10-5-04
NFX: Forecast 10-26-04
RL: Forecast 11-3-04.
SBUX: Forecast 10-20-04
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
SIE: Forecast 10-20-04
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Foreign. Researching the next potential date.
WWY: Forecast 10-26-04
XRAY: Forecast 10-26-04
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays, New buy points:
Play Date: 09/23/2004
AHC (Amerada Hess--$85.84; -0.67; optionable): Oil and gas refining. Forecast to announce a split on 10-27-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that AHC has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ahc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. AHC jumped out of an 8 week base Friday and extended the move through Tuesday. It has come back the past two sessions to test the move. It may come back to test 85 or to the 10 day EMA (84.46) before it is ready to rebound, but this was a strong volume breakout and we want to be ready. This is one we anticipate announcing a split in the near future.
Volume: 1.736M Avg Volume: 999.992K
BUY POINT: $86.38 Volume=1.5M Target=$100 Stop=$85.35
POSITION: AHC AQ - Jan. $85c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ahc.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/21/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$85.59; +0.94; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that KMRT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-25-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $85.28
STATUS: Breakout test. Still coming back to test the breakout, sliding down to the 18 day EMA (83.54) on very low, below average volume. That low volume and very modest selling shows very few interested in selling the stock. That is setting it up for the next breakout after this first test, a great entry point. Strong money flow still, and solid 6 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 1.399M Avg Volume: 2.812M
BUY POINT: New: 87.05 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$50.89; +0.34; optionable): Dental instruments. Forecast to announce a split on 10-26-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.80. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Slipped below the 18 day EMA to test the 50 day EMA (50.36) in its handle. That still keeps the 11 week base in tact and works to shake out a few more sellers. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation shows buyers moving into the stock during the base as they set the foundation for a breakout. Money flow remains strong as the stock pulls back and forms this handle. Being patient and waiting for the breakout that takes it to an all-time high.
Volume: 231.794K Avg Volume: 348.165K
BUY POINT: $52.38 Volume=494K Target=$58 Stop=$51.12
POSITION: XEQ AJ - Jan. $50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$28.58; +0.1; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $28.63
STATUS: Breakout test. CTSH has been ignoring the market selling, instead easing back to the 18 day EMA (28.28) on very low trade. Market pullbacks are where the leaders show their leadership ability. As it pulls back it is holding over the February high, the high on the left side of the base as the stock corrected and started the base. Very nice test; just looking for volume to jump on the move.
Volume: 696.079K Avg Volume: 1.192M
BUY POINT: New: 29.55 Volume=1.6M Target=$39.25 Stop=$28.54
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
Play Date: 09/18/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$33.47; +0.06; optionable): Document and file management/storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Another stock that is showing its leadership metal, ignoring the market selling and moving laterally, ready to break to an all-time high. Volume has started showing some big spikes, something we call 'get ready' spikes. Nice 8 week base sporting excellent 4 to 0 accumulation. That is setting up the breakout move, and surging money flow is showing the way. The breakout test is one of our favorite entry points as it 'proves up' the base and the breakout: buyers come back in after it makes the big move higher, using the first opportunity they get to move in.
Volume: 427.3K Avg Volume: 363.528K
BUY POINT: $33.65 Volume=500K Target=$38 Stop=$32.97
POSITION: IRY AZ - Jan. $33.38c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$33.04; +0.57; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $33.14
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continues its work on the lateral handle over the 10 day EMA (32.45), ignoring the market as strong stocks do. A very nice, tight handle is forming, working to clear out the last sellers in the 12 week base. Just being patient and waiting for it to deliver the breakout move so we can enter new positions.
Volume: 15.697M Avg Volume: 20.651M
BUY POINT: New: 34.05 Volume=25M Target=$40 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yhoo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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