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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AH; DO; LLL; STJ; TDS; WYNN; ZBRA; AAI; AMR; ERES
Thursday night play results:
AHC: Started the move back up but low volume. Looks ready this week.
HDTV: Shot higher on strong volume, then reversed the action. Needs to hold here.
TASR: Still solid and looking for the breakout.
AMR: Tanked on high volume as we wanted.
PPG: Bounced back to test the 200 day SMA, but on lower, below average volume.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
GW (Grey Wolf--$4.6; +0.2; optionable): Oil & gas drilling/exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gw.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged last week as GW moved up toward the breakout from its 7 month base. This is a base on base, forming the current pattern after failing to breakout from a larger base in January. The current pattern sports strong 10 to 6 accumulation, showing net buyers in the stock during the base. Money flow is surging with the volume, and relative strength made the breakout Friday, a very bullish indication. Looks ready for the next breakout.
Volume: 2.379M Avg Volume: 945.319K
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$6 Stop=$4.52
POSITION: GW LZ - Dec. $2.50c (100 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gw.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$15.52; -0.22; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WITS broke from a 21 week double bottom with handle early this month, surging on very strong volume. A solid base that used the 200 day SMA (12.23) on the low as support and shows solid accumulation. WITS is making its second test of the 18 day EMA (14.90) since the breakout. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA after the breakout; that leaves plenty of room for WITS to run higher on the current breakout move. Nice low volume on the pullback, showing very few sellers. Money flow continues to surge higher even as price makes this test. That is a divergence that indicates the test will be successful and WITS will continue higher. We look for a higher volume bounce up off of this level as our entry point.
Volume: 114.194K Avg Volume: 361.754K
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=543K Target=$19 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
AFL (Aflac--$38.73; -0.02; optionable): Accident and health insurance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afl.html
STATUS: Put. We have all seen the AFL duck making its pitch for supplemental insurance. AFL's price pattern needs some type of disability as well. Last week it broke through the 200 day SMA (39.53) for the second time in two months; when you hang around an area like that, you tend to sell lower as institutions often use the 200 day as a selling point. It managed to bottom in August, but the high volume break back through the 200 day last week is a sign of serious trouble. The stock is hanging around in a bad neighborhood, and it is losing support with the strong distribution sessions. Friday it tried to rally back, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (39.30) and fell back. Money flow is in the tank, and the stock looks ready to follow it down further. Looking for a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 981.2K Avg Volume: 1.419M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$37.03 Stop=$39.05
POSITION: AFL WH - Nov. $40p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afl.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$382.55; -11.24; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sox.html
STATUS: Put. As noted in the market summary, SOX is again weak as it reversed Wednesday, immediately giving up its breakout over the 50 day EMA. Friday it resumed the selling, undercutting the 18 day EMA (385.85) as well. After trending lower below the 18 day EMA, it came up for air to the 50 day EMA (396). It has now rolled over and looks ready for another fall. Looking for a 46%ish gain.
BUY POINT: $380.25 Target=$355 Stop=$386
POSITION: SOY WP - Nov. $380p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sox.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
XLNX (Xilinx--$27.66; -1.42; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
After Hours: $27.63
STATUS: Put. An individual chip stock showing a troubling pattern as well. XLNX looked as if it might be ready to start work on the right side of its base last Monday as it jumped over its 200 day SMA (35) as the chips tried to help NASDAQ lead a new leg in the rally. As with many stocks, however, XLNX gave the move up almost immediately. The selling was not too severe Wednesday, but on Friday volume jumped well above average and XLNX undercut the 50 day EMA (28.87) and the 18 day EMA (28.19) in one swoop lower. After the trend down the 18 day EMA, it came up to the 50 day EMA to let off some selling pressure. The sellers, however, have jumped right back on the stock, and it looks as if it is ready to fall again. Looking for a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 9.471M Avg Volume: 7.158M
BUY POINT: $27.52 Volume=8M Target=$25.45 Stop=$28.04
POSITION: XLQ WY - Nov. $27.50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlnx.html
Current play w/new buy point.
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$28.6; +0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $28.52
STATUS: Breakout test. CTSH has been ignoring the market selling, instead easing back to the 18 day EMA (28.31) on very low trade. Market pullbacks are where the leaders show their leadership mettle. As it pulls back it is holding over the February high, the high on the left side of the base as the stock corrected and started the base. Very nice test; just looking for volume to jump on the move.
Volume: 949.757K Avg Volume: 1.169M
BUY POINT: New: 29.55 Volume=1.6M Target=$39.25 Stop=$28.54
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctsh.html
CONTINUING PLAY LIST
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://investmenthouse.com/ihalerts/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 09/14 Test BO 37.29 +0.02 36.32 42 6.6M 8.5M 36.74
Current. Tapped some resistance at 38 intraday, but gave it back showing a doji on average volume. Making a lateral move.
ADI 09/20 DB hdl 37.46 -1.16 39.42 44 4.5M 4.8M 38.88
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down below the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 15.74 -0.67 15.16 17.84 462K 276K 15.79
Trailing Stop. Gapped up at the open, but then reversed hard below the 18 day MVA on strong volume.
AH 09/08 DB hdl 39.6 +1.5 38.89 44.12 1.9M 1M 38.59
Current. Tapped 38.05 at the low and rallied back for an explosive move on excellent volume surge. Came off the day's high of 41.
AHC 09/23 Test BO 86.48 +0.64 86.38 100 890K 1.5M 85.35
Buy Not Issued. Needs some volume before we enter the play.
AIRN 09/21 Cup 5.55 +0.22 5.54 6.95 373K 543K 5.34
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on slighty above average volume. Will still be a buy if follows through with the move with strong volume.
AKAM 09/18 DB hdl 14.19 -0.27 15.52 18 1.9M 4M 14.98
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down holding the 50 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
BDX 09/13 Cup hdl 51.57 +0.96 51.88 57 688K 1.5M 50.28
Buy Not Issued. Nice move up on lower, below average volume. Volume will need to increase to enter the play.
BEN 09/11 Cup hdl 54.72 +0.18 55.24 60 558K 1M 53.97
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
BOL 08/26 DB hdl 67.68 +0.18 67.85 73.48 303K 578K 67.18
Current. Making a lateral move along the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume
BYD 09/14 Dbl btm 27.14 +0.04 27.69 31.55 244K 500K 27.15
Exited. Tapped 10 day MVA intraday, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume. Making a lateral move under the 18 day MVA.
CREE 09/09 Cup hdl 28.7 -0.19 26.78 30.75 2.4M 2.9M 28.38
Current. Tapped some resistance at 29.98 intraday, but gave it back on average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
CTSH 09/04 Cup 28.6 +0.02 28.98 39.25 950K 1.6M 28.28
Current. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA showing a tight doji on rising, but still below average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 22.94 +0.09 20.39 24.22 464K 400K 21.68
Current. Moving up on much stronger above average volume. Holding at some resistance. Making a lateral move.
DKS 09/01 Rv H&S 35.7 +0.02 33.44 38.24 391K 1.1M 35.08
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
DO 08/31 Cup hdl 32.15 +0.78 25.48 29 1.6M 1.3M 31.58
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 89.22 -0.88 88.05 99.94 7.5M 14M 93.25
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
FFIV 09/15 Test 20 29.84 -1.2 30.58 35.15 873K 1.3M 29.89
Current. Has to hold here. Sold on lower volume so let it ride
another session.
FLS 09/16 Cup hdl 24.01 -0.09 24.44 28.48 124K 415K 23.62
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
FSL 09/21 Test BO 14.75 -0.34 15.42 18.48 779K 2M 14.84
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down testing the 18 day MVA intraday. The stock has not performed so will drop.
HDTV 09/23 Rv H&S 5.98 -0.17 6.36 7.72 1.1M 325K 5.88
Entered today. Surged on strong volume once more, posting a nice gain, but then reversed on us. Still may hold up, but have to be careful and not let a reversal turn nasty.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 86.3 +0.71 80.22 92 916K 3.6M 87.88
Current. Continues to test the breakout, holding over the 18
day MA and filling the gap. Still looking for another
bounce up from here.
LLL 09/24 Cup hdl 65.41 +1.14 65.43 73.55 1.1M 1.2M 63.88
Entered today. Kept watching it and it bounced off the 18 day MA on
very strong volume.
MRVL 09/18 Test BO 26.28 -0.27 27.18 31.35 2.6M 7.1M 25.74
Current. Ease back tapping 25.66 at the intraday low and rallied back holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Showing strength coming off the day's low.
MSSN 09/15 Cup hdl 6.35 +0.24 6.22 7.55 506K 538K 6.05
Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
MSTR 09/20 Test BO 40.86 -1.02 42.55 48 292K 575K 41.98
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 36.52 -0.21 35.72 41.74 257K 650K 34.65
Buy Not Issued. Needs a test of 36 to set up the next move higher,
and hopefully that will come on volume.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 38.25 -0.47 38.82 45 10M 11M 38.88
Current. Pullback testing support at 38.05 intraday and rallied back on low volume. Needs to hold here.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 38.25 -0.47 35.42 40.48 10M 11M 38.88
Current.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 8 -0.1 7.04 8.54 849K 1.5M 7.98
Current. Tapped 8.33 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume holding below the 10 day MVA, but at support. Needs to hold here.
SIMG 09/21 DB hdl 12.38 -0.13 13.06 15.65 973K 1.5M 12.72
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on lower, but still slightly above average volume. Still in the pattern.
SMH 09/20 DB hdl 30.17 -0.93 32.05 36 45M 21M 31.25
Exited. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
SNDK 09/20 Test 20 27.38 -0.7 27.92 33.42 7.5M 6.5M 27.12
Exited. Fell hard on stronger above average volume holding above the 10 day MVA. Exited before the stop/loss point, because did not like the action.
STJ 09/22 Test 20 73.43 +2.23 72.78 76.85 2.4M 1.5M 71.96
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 51.8 +0.38 47.83 53.88 3M 7.6M 51.25
Current. Moving up after testing the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Holding just under resistance at 52.15.
TASR 09/23 DB hdl 39.21 +0.43 40.12 47.49 6.7M 12M 39.05
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 40.35 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on low volume. Still in the pattern.
TDS 09/24 FlyPlat 84.84 +2.29 84.68 100 358K 265K 83.72
Entered today.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 84.84 +2.29 77.46 82.38 358K 265K 83.88
Current. Blasted higher on volume and we started another position
in this strong leader.
TXN 09/16 Test 50 21.69 -0.76 22.16 26 18M 2M 21.86
Exited. Gapped up at the open, but then reversed hard on stronger above average volume.
VIP 09/18 Test BO 104.24 +0.54 104.45 113.75 156K 600K 101.68
Current. Moving up on lower, below average volume after testing the breakout. Still in good shape.
WBSN 09/16 BO 40.92 -0.95 41.93 47 500K 600K 40.97
Exited. Pullback on lower, below average volume testing the 18 day MVA intraday.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 40.92 -0.95 39.58 43.45 500K 735K 40.97
Trailing Stop.
WCN 09/11 Test BO 30.88 -0.02 30.69 34.22 95K 350K 30.74
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
WYNN 09/18 Cup hdl 47.79 +2.28 45.38 53 1.7M 558K 46.88
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 61.89 +0.97 56.43 60 724K 425K 60.97
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up for a great move on stronger above average volume. Making a 52 week high.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAI 09/08 Put 10.28 -0.2 11.15 9.88 1.4M 1.4M 10.51
Current. Great move down the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
AMR 09/23 Put 7.47 -0.59 7.68 6.65 12M 4M 7.78
Entered today. Great move down on very strong volume.
AW 09/20 Put 8.79 -0.02 9.22 8.12 1.9M 1.5M 9.52
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move showing a doji on rising, but average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. Looking for a low volume rally.
BBOX 09/24 Put 37.25 -0.89 37.24 35 179K 175K 37.85
Entered today. Kept an eye on it and it rolled over on continued above average volume.
BLL 09/15 Put 35.95 +0.8 35.35 33.32 697K 607K 35.85
Current. Relief bounce holding below the 10 day MVA on lower, but below average volume. Needs to hold here and roll over.
BWA 09/22 Put 42.88 +0.12 42.77 40.75 229K 390K 43.21
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in weak pattern.
CANI 09/18 Put 7.85 -0.2 8.46 7.12 102K 175K 8.04
Gapped down for a nice move on average volume.
ERES 09/21 Put 18.01 -0.41 18.48 16.35 1000 2M 18.82
Current. Gapped up to open on the 18 day MVA, but could not hold the gain for a nice move down below the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
EYE 09/22 Put 20.33 +0.14 20.32 18.25 324K 485K 20.68
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move. Looking for stock to roll over.
JCP 09/18 Put 37.18 +0.43 35.97 34.15 2.9M 3M 36.72
Current. Continue to rally on lower, below average volume testing the 18 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain. May continue to rally up to the 18 day MVA, before turning over.
OEX 09/22 Put 534.21 -2.63 535.33 522 1.2M 1.3M 536.55
Current. Testing the simple 50 day MVA, but gave it back showing a doji. Making a lateral move on average volume.
PPG 09/23 Put 59.66 +0.99 59.28 56.45 402K 545K 58.89
Buy Not Hit. Low volume rally testing the 200 day MVA intraday but could not hold the gain on lower, below average volume. Still in weak pattern.
SFD 09/22 Put 24.32 -0.13 24.48 22.85 601K 715K 24.58
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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