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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AH; DO; LLL; MSSN; AAI; AMR; CANI; ERES
Thursday night play results:
HDTV: Shot higher on strong volume, then reversed the action. Needs to hold here.
CK: Took a low volume breather on the rebound move.
AMR: Tanked on high volume as we wanted.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
GW (Grey Wolf--$4.6; +0.2; optionable): Oil & gas drilling/exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gw.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged last week as GW moved up toward the breakout from its 7 month base. This is a base on base, forming the current pattern after failing to breakout from a larger base in January. The current pattern sports strong 10 to 6 accumulation, showing net buyers in the stock during the base. Money flow is surging with the volume, and relative strength made the breakout Friday, a very bullish indication. Looks ready for the next breakout.
Volume: 2.379M Avg Volume: 945.319K
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$6 Stop=$4.52
POSITION: GW LZ - Dec. $2.50c (100 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gw.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
NVTL (Novatel Wireless--$24.27; +1.57; optionable): Business telecom software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvtl.html
After Hours: $24.22
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume surged Friday as NVTL moved off of its most recent higher low, working toward the breakout from its 22 week base. A nice series of higher lows has set up the move with kind of a double bottom with handle the past 11 weeks to put a nice finish on the pattern. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base has set up a solid foundation with buyers using the consolidation to accumulate shares. With Friday's strong move, we are simply looking for another good jump with continued solid volume.
Volume: 3.51M Avg Volume: 1.379M
BUY POINT: $24.48 Volume=1.8M Target=$29 Stop=$22.42
POSITION: NVU LE - Dec. $25c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nvtl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
AFL (Aflac--$38.73; -0.02; optionable): Accident and health insurance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afl.html
STATUS: Put. We have all seen the AFL duck making its pitch for supplemental insurance. AFL's price pattern needs some type of disability as well. Last week it broke through the 200 day SMA (39.53) for the second time in two months; when you hang around an area like that, you tend to sell lower as institutions often use the 200 day as a selling point. It managed to bottom in August, but the high volume break back through the 200 day last week is a sign of serious trouble. The stock is hanging around in a bad neighborhood, and it is losing support with the strong distribution sessions. Friday it tried to rally back, but stalled at the 10 day EMA (39.30) and fell back. Money flow is in the tank, and the stock looks ready to follow it down further. Looking for a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 981.2K Avg Volume: 1.419M
BUY POINT: $38.55 Volume=1.5M Target=$37.03 Stop=$39.05
POSITION: AFL WH - Nov. $40p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/afl.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
ALTR (Altera--$19.30; -1.00; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/altr.html
After Hours: $19.29
STATUS: Put. Similar to SOX, ALTR broke through its support at the 50 day EMA (19.87) Friday, plunging through that key level on very strong volume. The stock has made three attempts to breakout over the 50 day in the past 7 weeks. This last failure Friday was maybe a bit more spectacular. Looking to pick up some positions here on a continued move lower. After such a strong move, stocks tend to rebound to test the support broken. When that occurs and ALTR rolls back over, we will look to move into additional positions.
Volume: 14.464M Avg Volume: 7.466M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=10M Target=$17.65 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: LTQ WD - Nov. $20p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/altr.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GMAI, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Solid run up the 10 day EMA continues.
EBAY: Needs to hold on here.
MSFT: continues its 6 week lateral move below the 50 day EMA but above the 200 day SMA. Putting you to sleep, but that is always a good time to watch for signs of an impending move such as strong volume spikes.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Downside:
UTSI: Rebounding over the 18 day EMA on some stronger volume after a nasty gap lower in late July. Need to see how this higher volume is resolved.
Upside:
EUBK: A foreign regional bank in a very nice flying plateau.
DNA: Trying to make a comeback, building the right side of its 20 week base. It rallied over the 200 day SMA this month, and Friday it solid back down to that level on rising, average volume. Not necessarily a bad thing, but it needs to hold here and start back up. A good risk/reward position as it moves off the 200 day SMA on stronger volume.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet.
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address: http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 09/14 Test BO 37.29 +0.02 36.32 42 6.6M 8.5M 36.74
Current. Tapped some resistance at 38 intraday, but gave it back showing a doji on average volume. Making a lateral move.
AH 09/08 DB hdl 39.6 +1.5 38.89 44.12 1.9M 1M 38.59
Current. Tapped 38.05 at the low and rallied back for an explosive move on excellent volume surge. Came off the day's high of 41.
AKS 09/22 Cup hdl 7.45 +0.05 7.72 9.25 829K 1.9M 7.88
Buy Not Issued. Continue with the uptrend on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape, but will need to hold here.
BEN 09/11 Cup hdl 54.72 +0.18 55.24 60 558K 1M 53.97
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
BYD 09/14 Dbl btm 27.14 +0.04 27.69 31.55 244K 500K 27.15
Exited. Tapped 10 day MVA intraday, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume. Making a lateral move under the 18 day MVA.
CHTT 08/27 Cup 32.05 -0.3 30.35 34.72 145K 258K 31.72
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume holding at support. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
CK 09/23 Test BO 8.76 -0.06 8.94 10.55 866K 1M 8.65
Buy Not Hit. Pullback showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
CSTR 09/21 Rv H&S 22.92 +0.07 22.25 26.22 275K 350K 21.88
Stock needs to pullback so will drop, and keep our eye on it.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 22.94 +0.09 20.39 24.22 464K 400K 21.68
Current. Moving up on much stronger above average volume. Holding at some resistance. Making a lateral move.
DAB 09/22 Cup hdl 18.95 +0.15 19.08 23.95 56K 103K 18.72
Buy Not Hit. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
DKS 09/01 Rv H&S 35.7 +0.02 33.44 38.24 391K 1.1M 35.08
Current. Making a lateral move on low volume.
DO 08/31 Cup hdl 32.15 +0.78 25.48 29 1.6M 1.3M 31.58
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on lower, but still strong volume.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 89.22 -0.88 88.05 99.94 7.5M 14M 93.25
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 89.22 -0.88 71.78 82.25 7.5M 10M 92.48
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 89.22 -0.88 34.72 46 7.5M 12M 89.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 89.22 -0.88 31.22 46 7.5M 12M 89.55
Current.
ELGX 08/26 Cup hdl 6.6 -0.2 6.54 7.84 35K 120K 6.48
Current. Ease back tapping 6.54 at the low and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on very low volume. Still in good shape.
FSL 09/21 Test BO 14.75 -0.34 15.42 18.48 779K 2M 14.84
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down testing the 18 day MVA intraday. The stock has not performed so will drop.
HDTV 09/23 Rv H&S 5.98 -0.17 6.36 7.72 1.1M 325K 5.88
Entered today. Surged on strong volume once more, posting a nice gain, but then reversed on us. Still may hold up, but have to be careful and not let a reversal turn nasty.
IDEV 08/30 DB hdl 7.4 -0.07 7.36 8.85 494K 1.2M 7.48
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
IGL 08/02 Cup hdl 17.29 +0.28 14.12 16.88 974K 1.6M 16.78
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move up on rising, but average volume holding at some resistance. Came off the day's high of 17.64.
JNPR 09/01 Dbl btm 24.65 -0.39 23.42 26.62 7.7M 12M 24.97
Current. Pullback holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 24.58.
LLL 09/24 Cup hdl 65.41 +1.14 65.43 73.55 1.1M 1.2M 63.88
Entered today. Kept watching it and it bounced off the 18 day MA on
very strong volume.
LSS 09/08 Cup hdl 35.71 +0.55 34 39 254K 759K 34.74
Current. Continue with uptrend on rising, but below average volume.
MSSN 09/15 Cup hdl 6.35 +0.24 6.22 7.55 506K 538K 6.05
Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
MSTR 09/20 Test BO 40.86 -1.02 42.55 48 292K 575K 41.98
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
PMTC 09/01 DB hdl 5.04 -0.13 5.22 6.35 938K 1.9M 5.05
Exited. Stock fell holding just above the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
PPDI 07/24 Test BO 36.52 -0.21 35.72 41.74 257K 650K 34.65
Buy Not Issued. Needs a test of 36 to set up the next move higher,
and hopefully that will come on volume.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 38.25 -0.47 38.82 45 10M 11M 38.88
Current. Pullback testing support at 38.05 intraday and rallied back on low volume. Needs to hold here.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 38.25 -0.47 35.42 40.48 10M 11M 38.88
Current.
SAPE 08/09 Test BO 8 -0.1 7.04 8.54 849K 1.5M 7.98
Current. Tapped 8.33 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on low volume holding below the 10 day MVA, but at support. Needs to hold here.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 6.59 +0.04 5.88 7 806K 635K 6.43
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but average volume
SERO 08/19 Cup hdl 23.55 +0.27 21.47 25.45 207K 538K 23.05
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Came off the day's high of 23.84.
SMH 09/20 DB hdl 30.17 -0.93 32.05 36 45M 21M 31.25
Exited. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
SSI 09/13 Cup hdl 46.55 +0.45 45.78 50.55 155K 450K 45.98
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA and continued to rally on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout. Came off the day's high of 46.95.
SYMM 09/09 Dbl btm 9.09 -0.09 9.62 11.55 219K 337K 9.25
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Testing the breakout.
TV 08/10 Cup hdl 50.69 +0.46 47.48 53.88 310K 561K 49.88
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on average volume.
WBSN 09/16 BO 40.92 -0.95 41.93 47 500K 600K 40.97
Exited. Pullback on lower, below average volume testing the 18 day MVA intraday.
WBSN 08/14 Cup hdl 40.92 -0.95 39.58 43.45 500K 735K 40.97
Trailing Stop.
XLNX 09/20 Test 50 27.66 -1.42 29.88 35 9.5M 8M 28.98
Buy Not Hit. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAI 09/08 Put 10.28 -0.2 11.15 9.88 1.4M 1.4M 10.51
Current. Great move down the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
AMR 09/23 Put 7.47 -0.59 7.68 6.65 12M 4M 7.78
Entered today. Great move down on very strong volume.
BLL 09/15 Put 35.95 +0.8 35.35 33.32 697K 607K 35.85
Current. Relief bounce holding below the 10 day MVA on lower, but below average volume. Needs to hold here and roll over.
BMS 09/18 Put 25.69 +0.21 25.65 24.55 286K 350K 25.84
Current. Relief bounce on lower, below average volume tapping 25.81 at the high, but gave some of it back. Holding below the 10 day MVA. Needs to hold here and turnover.
BWA 09/22 Put 42.88 +0.12 42.77 40.75 229K 390K 43.21
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in weak pattern.
BWA 07/24 Put 42.88 +0.12 53.55 49.25 229K 450K 55.25
CANI 09/18 Put 7.85 -0.2 8.46 7.12 102K 175K 8.04
Gapped down for a nice move on average volume.
ERES 09/21 Put 18.01 -0.41 18.48 16.35 1000 2M 18.82
Current. Gapped up to open on the 18 day MVA, but could not hold the gain for a nice move down below the 10 day MVA on rising volume.
SFD 09/22 Put 24.32 -0.13 24.48 22.85 601K 715K 24.58
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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