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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Due to technical difficulties this weekend, we had to limit the plays to new plays and 'best' plays from the continuing play list.
Good moves Friday: BSC; BLUD, SONC, CME
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
PDCO (Patterson Dental--$75.15; +0.62; optionable): Medical equipment. Splits 2:1 on 10-25-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdco.html
After Hours: $75.15
STATUS: Flat base. Volume started back up Friday, moving just above average, as PDCO is showing signs of starting a pre-split move and trying to breakout from its 21 week base. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the base is setting up a good foundation for the breakout. Want to see some more strong volume as it moves through the buy point. A pretty aggressive target; if we get a big surge and it starts to stall a bit we will be happy to take some early gain.
Volume: 492.912K Avg Volume: 433.756K
BUY POINT: $75.75 Volume=550K Target=$85.88 Stop=$74.44
POSITION: DQU AO - Jan. $75c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/pdco.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
GW (Grey Wolf--$4.6; +0.2; optionable): Oil & gas drilling/exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gw.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged last week as GW moved up toward the breakout from its 7 month base. This is a base on base, forming the current pattern after failing to breakout from a larger base in January. The current pattern sports strong 10 to 6 accumulation, showing net buyers in the stock during the base. Money flow is surging with the volume, and relative strength made the breakout Friday, a very bullish indication. Looks ready for the next breakout.
Volume: 2.379M Avg Volume: 945.319K
BUY POINT: $4.68 Volume=1.2M Target=$6 Stop=$4.52
POSITION: GW LZ - Dec. $2.50c (100 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gw.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
IDBE (ID Biomedical--$12.92; +0.04; optionable): Diagnostic substances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idbe.html
After Hours: $12.95
STATUS: Flying plateau. IDBE is working on building the right side of its base, moving laterally the past three weeks over the 10 day EMA (12.80) in a very tight range. A tight range is good as it shows not a lot of turnover. A strong upside volume spiked Tuesday almost broke IDBE out. That is a positive indication in addition to solid 13 to 8 accumulation. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and we are looking for IDBE to follow that money higher.
Volume: 143.204K Avg Volume: 392.223K
BUY POINT: $13.42 Volume=588K Target=$16 Stop=$12.78
POSITION: QQ LV - Dec. $12.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/idbe.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
XLNX (Xilinx--$27.66; -1.42; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
After Hours: $27.63
STATUS: Put. An individual chip stock showing a troubling pattern as well. XLNX looked as if it might be ready to start work on the right side of its base last Monday as it jumped over its 200 day SMA (35) as the chips tried to help NASDAQ lead a new leg in the rally. As with many stocks, however, XLNX gave the move up almost immediately. The selling was not too severe Wednesday, but on Friday volume jumped well above average and XLNX undercut the 50 day EMA (28.87) and the 18 day EMA (28.19) in one swoop lower. After the trend down the 18 day EMA, it came up to the 50 day EMA to let off some selling pressure. The sellers, however, have jumped right back on the stock, and it looks as if it is ready to fall again. Looking for a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 9.471M Avg Volume: 7.158M
BUY POINT: $27.52 Volume=8M Target=$25.45 Stop=$28.04
POSITION: XLQ WY - Nov. $27.50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xlnx.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/21/2004
AIRN (Airspan Networks--$5.55; +0.22; optionable): Telecom wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/airn.html
After Hours: $5.59
STATUS: Cup. Volume was up back above average Friday as AIRN moved toward the breakout once more from its 20 week base. AIRN is now forming a handle to its base, working laterally over the 10 day EMA (5.29). Outstanding 7 to 1 accumulation as it forms the handle and prepares for the breakout move.
Volume: 372.688K Avg Volume: 350.572K
BUY POINT: New: $5.74 (orig. $5.54) Volume=543K Target=$7.12 Stop=$5.34
POSITION: AHQ AA - Jan. $5c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/airn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Forecast 10-28-04.
BMET: Researching next date. Continues setting up for another breakout attempt.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
BRO: Forecast 10-6-04
BSC: Researching next date. Surging back higher on volume.
CME: Forecast 10-20-04.
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FLIR: Forecast 10-20-04
GD: Forecast 10-20-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Forecast 11-15-04
NCEN: Forecast 10-5-04
NFX: Forecast 10-26-04
RL: Forecast 11-3-04.
SBUX: Forecast 10-20-04
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
SIE: Forecast 10-20-04
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Foreign. Researching the next potential date.
WWY: Forecast 10-26-04
XRAY: Forecast 10-26-04
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays, New buy points:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
DGX (Quest Diagnostics--$86.39; +1.07; optionable): Medical labs. No exact date yet, but a nice pattern to take advantage of.
BACKGROUND: The only prior split is a 2:1 in June 2001 at $100.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dgx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. DGX is trying to make the breakout move from a nice 15 week base that used the 200 day SMA (82.12) on the low as support; a key level as it shows big money stepping in to pick up a stock they like. After rallying off that level it has eased back to form the handle, using the 50 day EMA (84.41) as support, another key level. It started toward the breakout last week, but it does need more volume when it makes the move through the buy point. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base is setting up the breakout move, and strong money flow is leading the price higher.
Volume: 441.5K Avg Volume: 550.922K
BUY POINT: $87.22 Volume=826K Target=$100 Stop=$85.88
POSITION: DGX BO - Jan. $85c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/dgx.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 09/18/2004
GD (General Dynamics--$99.76; +1.31; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Forecast to announce a split on 10-20-04 before the market opens in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-4-98 in conjunction with a board meeting at a stock price of $85. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-5-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. The cup with handle has morphed somewhat into a reverse head and shoulders base. A nice 11 week base formed mostly along the 50 day EMA (97.75), a sign of solid support. Money flow is leading higher, relative strength is ready to breakout. A very nice higher low made last week, and good price/volume action with solid, above average volume upside moves of late.
Volume: 610K Avg Volume: 684.183K
BUY POINT: $100.12 Volume=1M Target=$107 Stop=$98.88
POSITION: GD AT - Jan. $100c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$86.3; +0.71; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that KMRT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-25-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $86.28
STATUS: Breakout test. KMRT has held the 18 day EMA (83.83) on this nice, low volume test of the strong breakout move to start the month. It started the rebound Friday, but volume was even lower than on the pullback. Will need more trade to send it further on the breakout run. Strong money flow and solid 6 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 915.956K Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: New: 87.05 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/04/2004
CTSH (Cognizant Technology--$28.6; +0.02; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctsh.html
After Hours: $28.52
STATUS: Breakout test. CTSH continues to ignore the rest of the market, as it continues its breakout test, fading to the 18 day EMA (28.31). As noted last week, market pullbacks are where the leaders show their leadership mettle. As it pulls back it is holding over the February high, the high on the left side of the base as the stock corrected and started the base. Very nice test; just looking for volume to jump on the move.
Volume: 949.757K Avg Volume: 1.169M
BUY POINT: New: 29.55 Volume=1.6M Target=$39.25 Stop=$28.54
POSITION: UPU AY - Jan. $27.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ctsh.html
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
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http://stocksplits.net/ssr/table.php
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri =Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AHC 09/23 Test BO 86.48 +0.64 86.38 100 890K 1.5M 85.35
Buy Not Issued. Needs some volume before we enter the play.
AIRN 09/21 Cup 5.55 +0.22 5.54 6.95 373K 543K 5.34
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice move on slighty above average volume. Will still be a buy if follows through with the move with strong volume.
BCR 09/11 Cup hdl 56.25 +0.1 57.72 64 533K 950K 56.12
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Making a lateral move.
BLUD 09/23 BO 23.53 +0.31 23.83 27.35 420K 300K 22.88
Entered today. Gapped up at the open on lower, but still above average volume.
BOL 08/26 DB hdl 67.68 +0.18 67.85 73.48 303K 578K 67.18
Current. Making a lateral move along the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume
BRO 09/16 Test BO 45.05 +0.53 45.75 51.55 153K 534K 44.71
Buy Not Issued. Moving up on rising, but below average volume holding at some resistance. Still in the pattern.
BSC 09/16 Cup hdl 90.11 +1.98 89.98 100 1.3M 1.5M 88.15
Current. Tested the 18 day MVA and rallied back for an explosive move on stronger above average volume holding at resistance.
CME 09/18 Cup hdl 157.62 +4.58 146.89 159.55 1.3M 650K 155.88
Target Hit. Took half of stellar gain as CME surged on strong volume as oil and other commodities trading continues their own surge.
CMI 09/04 Cup hdl 71.71 -0.48 72.12 80.55 446K 1.1M 70.65
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding just above the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in good shape.
CREE 09/09 Cup hdl 28.7 -0.19 26.78 30.75 2.4M 2.9M 28.38
Current. Tapped some resistance at 29.98 intraday, but gave it back on average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
CTSH 09/04 Cup 28.6 +0.02 28.98 39.25 950K 1.6M 28.28
Current. Making a lateral move on the 10 day MVA showing a tight doji on rising, but still below average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
CWTR 08/30 Test BO 22.94 +0.09 20.39 24.22 464K 400K 21.68
Current. Moving up on much stronger above average volume. Holding at some resistance. Making a lateral move.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 89.22 -0.88 88.05 99.94 7.5M 14M 93.25
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
EBAY 06/25 BO 89.22 -0.88 90.54 105 7.5M 10M 93.25
Current.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 89.22 -0.88 71.78 82.25 7.5M 10M 92.48
Current.
EBAY 08/02 PreSplt 89.22 -0.88 53.78 60 7.5M 9M 89.55
Current.
EBAY 03/08 BO 89.22 -0.88 40.04 46 7.5M 8M 89.55
Current.
FLIR 09/21 Flat 62.9 +0.42 64.72 74 258K 906K 63.68
Buy Not Hit. Showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on low volume. Still in good shape.
GD 09/18 Rv H&S 99.76 +1.31 100.12 107 610K 1M 98.88
Buy Not Hit. Looks ready. Volume was up to average as it jumped
off the 18 day MA, making a higher low in teh pattern.
IRM 09/18 Test BO 33.49 +0.02 33.65 38 483K 500K 32.97
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. May be ready for breakout.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 86.3 +0.71 80.22 92 916K 3.6M 87.88
Current. Continues to test the breakout, holding over the 18
day MA and filling the gap. Still looking for another
bounce up from here.
MRCY 09/07 Cup hdl 27.4 -0.1 28.06 32 88K 216K 27.05
Buy Not Issued. Continue to pullback on lower, below average volume holding below the 18 day MVA. The stock has not performed so will drop.
MRVL 09/18 Test BO 26.28 -0.27 27.18 31.35 2.6M 7.1M 25.74
Current. Ease back tapping 25.66 at the intraday low and rallied back holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Showing strength coming off the day's low.
MSTR 09/20 Test BO 40.86 -1.02 42.55 48 292K 575K 41.98
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
NCEN 08/21 Rv H&S 62 -0.75 52.82 60 1.3M 1.1M 61.95
Current. Pullback on lower, but above average volume. Still in uptrend.
NFX 09/18 Cup hdl 61.79 +0.98 60.68 67 469K 850K 60.88
Current. Continue with uptrend for a nice move on lower, below average volume.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 38.25 -0.47 38.82 45 10M 11M 38.88
Current. Pullback testing support at 38.05 intraday and rallied back on low volume. Needs to hold here.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 38.25 -0.47 35.42 40.48 10M 11M 38.88
Current.
SBUX 09/21 DB hdl 45.04 +0.37 46.42 51.55 2.7M 5M 45.21
Buy Not Hit. Volatile session tapping 44.35 at the low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume holding the 18 day MVA. Moving up after testing the 50 day MVA.
SIE 09/14 DB hdl 45.31 +0.5 45.58 50.55 112K 719K 44.22
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume holding at some resistance. Still in good shape, but will need to move up with more volume.
SNDK 09/20 Test 20 27.38 -0.7 27.92 33.42 7.5M 6.5M 27.12
Exited. Fell hard on stronger above average volume holding above the 10 day MVA. Exited before the stop/loss point, because did not like the action.
SONC 09/09 DB hdl 25.69 +0.37 23.45 26.55 556K 450K 24.98
Current. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA for a nice move on stronger above average volume.
STN 09/04 Cup hdl 49 +0.25 47.94 54.88 255K 781K 48.22
Current. Moving up on rising, but below average volume after testing the 10 day MVA.
SYMC 08/10 DB hdl 51.8 +0.38 47.83 53.88 3M 7.6M 51.25
Current. Moving up after testing the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Holding just under resistance at 52.15.
TASR 09/23 DB hdl 39.21 +0.43 40.12 47.49 6.7M 12M 39.05
Buy Not Issued. Moving up the 10 day MVA showinga tight doji on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
TTC 09/07 Cup 67.84 -0.41 69.35 79 73K 300K 68.38
Buy Not Issued. Continue to pullback holding below the 18 day MVA on low volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
TXN 09/16 Test 50 21.69 -0.76 22.16 26 18M 2M 21.86
Exited. Gapped up at the open, but then reversed hard on stronger above average volume.
TZOO 09/04 Test BO 72.4 -0.47 46.28 60 1.5M 1.7M 68.88
Current. Tapped 75.52 at the high, but gave it back showing a odji on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
TZOO 08/07 Test 18 72.4 -0.47 28.27 60 1.5M 775K 68.88
Current.
VIP 09/18 Test BO 104.24 +0.54 104.45 113.75 156K 600K 101.68
Current. Moving up on lower, below average volume after testing the breakout. Still in good shape.
XRAY 09/11 DB hdl 51.12 +0.23 52.38 58 229K 494K 51.12
Buy Not Issued. Moving up holding the 18 day MVA on low volume. Came off the day's high of 51.61. Needs to hold here and rebound.
YHOO 09/02 Cup 32.58 -0.46 32.48 36 11M 25M 32.32
Current. Pullback holding just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
ZBRA 08/19 Dbl btm 61.89 +0.97 56.43 60 724K 425K 60.97
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up for a great move on stronger above average volume. Making a 52 week high.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
BLL 09/15 Put 35.95 +0.8 35.35 33.32 697K 607K 35.85
Current. Relief bounce holding below the 10 day MVA on lower, but below average volume. Needs to hold here and roll over.
BWA 09/22 Put 42.88 +0.12 42.77 40.75 229K 390K 43.21
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in weak pattern.
SFD 09/22 Put 24.32 -0.13 24.48 22.85 601K 715K 24.58
Current. Continue to move down the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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