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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Due to technical difficulties this weekend, we are limiting the plays to new plays and a few 'best plays' from the continuing plays list.
Good movers Friday: OIS, STJ; WYNN, CHKP; TDS
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$15.7; +0.38; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice little 10 week base has formed, using a rising 200 day SMA (13.78) as support for the pattern. In addition, it is using the prior base highs as support for the current base; another very good sign that there are many more buyers than sellers. Accumulation is positive at 2 to 1, and money flow is surging.
Volume: 2.639M Avg Volume: 2.474M
BUY POINT: $15.85 Volume=2.5M Target=$18.95 Stop=$15.12
POSITION: CHK AC - Jan. $15c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chk.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$31.17; +0.42; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Friday as ECL jumped off of a 50 day EMA (30.95) test in the handle itself that is working to shakeout the last sellers. The current 14 week base formed around the 50 day EMA (30.95) and is showing solid 4 to 2 accumulation and money flow is surging ahead of price. Looks as if ECL is ready to follow that money higher.
Volume: 1.16M Avg Volume: 634.416K
BUY POINT: $31.68 Volume=952K Target=$36.55 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: ECL AF - Jan. $30c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$15.52; -0.22; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Breakout test. WITS broke from a 21 week double bottom with handle early this month, surging on very strong volume. A solid base that used the 200 day SMA (12.23) on the low as support and shows solid accumulation. WITS is making its second test of the 18 day EMA (14.90) since the breakout. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA after the breakout; that leaves plenty of room for WITS to run higher on the current breakout move. Nice low volume on the pullback, showing very few sellers. Money flow continues to surge higher even as price makes this test. That is a divergence that indicates the test will be successful and WITS will continue higher. We look for a higher volume bounce up off of this level as our entry point.
Volume: 114.194K Avg Volume: 361.754K
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=543K Target=$19 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
ALTR (Altera--$19.30; -1.00; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/altr.html
After Hours: $19.29
STATUS: Put. Similar to SOX, ALTR broke through its support at the 50 day EMA (19.87) Friday, plunging through that key level on very strong volume. The stock has made three attempts to breakout over the 50 day in the past 7 weeks. This last failure Friday was maybe a bit more spectacular. Looking to pick up some positions here on a continued move lower. After such a strong move, stocks tend to rebound to test the support broken. When that occurs and ALTR rolls back over, we will look to move into additional positions.
Volume: 14.464M Avg Volume: 7.466M
BUY POINT: $19.22 Volume=10M Target=$17.65 Stop=$19.92
POSITION: LTQ WD - Nov. $20p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/altr.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
HNI (HNI Corp.--$39.45; -0.69; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hni.html
STATUS: Put. Volume is surging above average as HNI plows through the 50 day EMA (39.96) and the 200 day SMA (39.92) in one move. It tried a base on base pattern, but looks to be failing once again with its crash through these key support levels. With volume expanding, that shows the big money was starting to dump shares. It will come back to test the 200 day, but we are willing to take some positions on a further volume move lower, and then add to the position when it rebounds to test and then rolls back over.
Volume: 156.8K Avg Volume: 108.632K
BUY POINT: $39.31 Volume=163K Target=$37.81 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: HNI WH - Nov. $40p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hni.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$382.55; -11.24; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sox.html
STATUS: Put. As noted in the market summary, SOX is again weak as it reversed Wednesday, immediately giving up its breakout over the 50 day EMA. Friday it resumed the selling, undercutting the 18 day EMA (385.85) as well. After trending lower below the 18 day EMA, it came up for air to the 50 day EMA (396). It has now rolled over and looks ready for another fall. Looking for a 46%ish gain.
BUY POINT: $380.25 Target=$355 Stop=$386
POSITION: SOY WP - Nov. $380p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sox.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/21/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$86.3; +0.71; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $86.28
STATUS: Breakout test. KMRT has held the 18 day EMA (83.83) on this nice, low volume test of the strong breakout move to start the month. It started the rebound Friday, but volume was even lower than on the pullback. Will need more trade to send it further on the breakout run. Strong money flow and solid 6 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 915.956K Avg Volume: 2.789M
BUY POINT: New: 87.05 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
SIMG (Silicon Image--$12.38; -0.13; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
After Hours: $12.39
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume continues to fade as SIMG works along the 10 day EMA (12.15), forming the handle to its 22 week base. Another stock that is ignoring the market and going about its business, forming its base and preparing for the next breakout. It is using the 200 day SMA (10.73) as support for the bottom of the base, a key support as it shows institutions stepping up for their favorite stocks. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers. Money flow continues to surge ahead of the price, and we are looking for SIMG to breakout and follow the money higher.
Volume: 973.15K Avg Volume: 994.464K
BUY POINT: $13.06 Volume=1.5M Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.72
POSITION: QSI CV - Mar. $12.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simg.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$32.58; -0.46; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $32.65
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still forming the handle to its 11 week base. Holding the 10 day EMA (32.47) on the lows in the handle as volume fades well below average. The handle is dipping lower, just what you want it to do to shake out the last sellers. Looking for a strong volume break higher through the buy point.
Volume: 22.231M Avg Volume: 20.493M
BUY POINT: New: 34.05 Volume=25M Target=$40 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: YHQ AZ - Jan. $32.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
CONTINUING PLAY TABLE:
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet!
http://www.technicaltraders.com/ttr/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle/wedge; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.)
Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle/wedge; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ADI 09/20 DB hdl 37.46 -1.16 39.42 44 4.5M 4.8M 38.88
Buy Not Issued. Thudded down below the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
AGYS 08/14 Test BO 15.74 -0.67 15.16 17.84 462K 276K 15.79
Trailing Stop. Gapped up at the open, but then reversed hard below the 18 day MVA on strong volume.
AKAM 09/18 DB hdl 14.19 -0.27 15.52 18 1.9M 4M 14.98
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down holding the 50 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. The stock has not performed so will drop.
AMMD 09/14 DB hdl 36.14 +0.22 33.64 38.25 242K 250K 35.65
Current. Continue with lateral move on lower, but average volume.
BDX 09/13 Cup hdl 51.57 +0.96 51.88 57 688K 1.5M 50.28
Buy Not Issued. Nice move up on lower, below average volume. Volume will need to increase to enter the play.
CHTT 08/27 Cup 32.05 -0.3 30.35 34.72 145K 258K 31.72
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume holding at support. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
FFIV 09/15 Test 20 29.84 -1.2 30.58 35.15 873K 1.3M 29.89
Current. Has to hold here. Sold on lower volume so let it ride
another session.
FLS 09/16 Cup hdl 24.01 -0.09 24.44 28.48 124K 415K 23.62
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
GENZ 09/18 Cup hdl 56.39 +0.61 55.54 62.55 2.4M 3.5M 55.25
Current. Continue with uptrend on rising, but average volume.
GLDN 09/22 DB hdl 29.8 -1.17 30.75 35.88 51K 106K 29.88
Buy Not Issued. Ease back on lower, below average volume. May test back to support at 29.55.
JAKK 09/01 Flat 22.77 -0.09 21.07 24.18 300K 474K 22.44
Current. Making a lateral move showing a doji on rising, but below average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
KMRT 08/18 Dbl btm 86.3 +0.71 80.22 92 916K 3.6M 87.88
Current. Continues to test the breakout, holding over the 18
day MA and filling the gap. Still looking for another bounce up from here.
LH 09/20 DB hdl 43.72 -0.03 43.59 49.68 1.2M 750K 42.98
Current. Tapped 44.10 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on lower, but still strong volume. Making a lateral move.
OIS 09/15 Test BO 18.68 +0.16 18.05 21.21 174K 290K 18.02
Current. Continue with uptrend for a nice move on lower, below average volume.
QCOM 09/02 FlyPlat 38.25 -0.47 38.82 45 10M 11M 38.88
Current. Pullback testing support at 38.05 intraday and rallied back on low volume. Needs to hold here.
SNDK 09/20 Test 20 27.38 -0.7 27.92 33.42 7.5M 6.5M 27.12
Exited. Fell hard on stronger above average volume holding above the 10 day MVA. Exited before the stop/loss point, because did not like the action.
STJ 09/22 Test 20 73.43 +2.23 72.78 76.85 2.4M 1.5M 71.96
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
TDS 09/24 FlyPlat 84.84 +2.29 84.68 100 358K 265K 83.72
Entered today.
TDS 08/02 FlyPlat 84.84 +2.29 77.46 82.38 358K 265K 83.88
Current. Blasted higher on volume and we started another position
in this strong leader.
TXN 09/16 Test 50 21.69 -0.76 22.16 26 18M 2M 21.86
Exited. Gapped up at the open, but then reversed hard on stronger above average volume.
VRNT 09/04 Dbl btm 34.29 +0.14 33.58 38.36 78K 216K 34.14
Current. Volatile session testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on under the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
WCN 09/11 Test BO 30.88 -0.02 30.69 34.22 95K 350K 30.74
Current. Making a lateral move on lower, below average volume.
WYNN 09/18 Cup hdl 47.79 +2.28 45.38 53 1.7M 558K 46.88
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
YHOO 09/02 Cup 32.58 -0.46 32.48 36 11M 25M 32.32
Current. Pullback holding just above the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
ZBRA 08/25 Dbl btm 61.89 +0.97 56.45 60 724K 425K 60.97
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to move up for a great move on stronger above average volume. Making a 52 week high.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMSG 08/28 Put 21.52 +0.15 22.35 20.55 229K 300K 21.58
Trailing Stop. Tapped 21.87 at the high, but gave it back showing a on stronger, but still below average volume.
AW 09/20 Put 8.79 -0.02 9.22 8.12 1.9M 1.5M 9.52
Buy Not Issued. Making a lateral move showing a doji on rising, but average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. Looking for a low volume rally.
BBOX 09/24 Put 37.25 -0.89 37.24 35 179K 175K 37.85
Entered today. Kept an eye on it and it rolled over on continued above average volume.
CHKP 09/22 Put 17.19 -0.73 17.87 16.35 4M 3.5M 17.38
Nice move down the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
EYE 09/22 Put 20.33 +0.14 20.32 18.25 324K 485K 20.68
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move. Looking for stock to roll over.
JCP 09/18 Put 37.18 +0.43 35.97 34.15 2.9M 3M 36.72
Current. Continue to rally on lower, below average volume testing the 18 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain. May continue to rally up to the 18 day MVA, before turning over.
OEX 09/22 Put 534.37 +0.17 535.33 522 1.2M 1.3M 536.55
Current. Tested the simple 50 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain on average volume showing a doji at support. Making a lateral move.
PPG 09/23 Put 59.66 +0.99 59.28 56.45 402K 545K 58.89
Buy Not Hit. Low volume rally testing the 200 day MVA intraday but could not hold the gain on lower, below average volume. Still in weak pattern.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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