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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: WYNN; BBOX; JCP; OEX; SOX
Best Plays:
1) CENT: Diving on rising volume.
2) KCP: Rolling over at the 50 day EMA on rising trade.
3) OPTV: Nice test of the break through the 200 day SMA.
4) BDX: Nice handle getting ready to provide the breakout.
5) KMRT: Very quiet, very tight range as it readies for the next move.
6) WITS: Very nice test, holding the 10 day EMA on the close.
7) HNI: Intraday test of the 50 day EMA.
NEW PLAYS:
Downside:
Play Date: 09/27/2004
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$29.73; -1.35; optionable): Garden and pet supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
STATUS: Put. CENT gapped down hard in early July. It managed to rally back with the market in August, making it back up to the 200 day SMA (33.36). It moved laterally for three weeks and then rolled back over. Monday CENT was selling harder, on rising, above average volume. Money flow is in the tank. Looking to step in on a further move lower to ride it down near the August low at 28 for a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 171.872K Avg Volume: 206.863K
BUY POINT: $29.61 Volume=200K Target=$27.88 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: EQH WF - Nov. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
Play Date: 09/27/2004
KCP (Kenneth Cole--$29.61; -0.89; optionable): Shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kcp.html
STATUS: Put. Managed to rally back with the market in September, but after clearing the 50 day EMA (30.40) two weeks back it was unable to press the move. It stalled, and Monday broke back through the 50 day on rising, above average volume. A relatively low volume stock, but money flow is turning lower ahead of price. Looking to move in on a further drop on volume for a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 117.9K Avg Volume: 84.181K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=126K Target=$27.75 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: KCP WF - Nov. $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kcp.html
Play Date: 09/27/2004
UVN (Univision Communications--$31.75; -0.92; optionable): Broadcast TV
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uvn.html
After Hours: $31.78
STATUS: Put. UVN trended lower from January to July, then gapped higher in August up to the 200 day SMA (33.97). It spent three weeks at that level but could not advance the move. It rolled over and fell to the gap up point at 32. That prompted a bounce back up to the 50 day EMA (32.43). From there it rolled over Monday, undercutting the 50 day EMA and 32. Looking for it to fill the gap down toward 30 for a 48%ish gain.
Volume: 1.209M Avg Volume: 1.331M
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$29.85 Stop=$32.22
POSITION: UVN WF - Nov. $30p (-30 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/uvn.html
Upside:
Play Date: 09/27/2004
HRS (Harris Corp.--$53.48; -0.05; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
STATUS: Breakout test. HRS broke from a 7.5 month trading range two weeks back, making the move on very strong, above average volume. It rallied to 55 and is not testing that move, holding over the 10 day EMA (52.54) as it holds onto most of its breakout move. Solid 10 to 5 accumulation in the trading range and excellent money flow. May take another couple of sessions to complete the pullback, but volume started to rise the past two sessions as it held its gains.
Volume: 611K Avg Volume: 346.454K
BUY POINT: $53.88 Volume=600K Target=$59 Stop=$52.44
POSITION: HRS BK - Feb. $55c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hrs.html
Play Date: 09/27/2004
OPTV (Opentv--$3.05; +0.05; no options): Multimedia & graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OPTV is easing back to the 10 day EMA (2.95) on lower volume after OPTV surged through the 200 day SMA (2.82) on very strong volume last week. This is part of the move up the right side of an 11 month base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as the stock pulls back to test the break higher. A very good risk/reward position. Just looking for volume to surge higher on the rebound.
Volume: 296.629K Avg Volume: 471.5K
BUY POINT: $3.15 Volume=525K Target=$4.25 Stop=$2.93
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/optv.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/13/2004
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$51.23; -0.34; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on its handle over the 18 day EMA (50.47) on very low, below average volume. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the 14 week base. Nice base that looks ready to make the breakout.
Volume: 578.4K Avg Volume: 990K
BUY POINT: $51.88 Volume=1.5M Target=$57 Stop=$50.28
POSITION: BDX LJ - Dec. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bdx.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$15.7; 0; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Held steady Monday near the breakout point, still set to make the breakout move. Nice little 10 week base has formed, using a rising 200 day SMA (13.79) as support for the pattern. In addition, it is using the prior base highs as support for the current base; another very good sign that there are many more buyers than sellers. Accumulation is positive at 2 to 1, and money flow is surging.
Volume: 2.751M Avg Volume: 2.43M
BUY POINT: $15.85 Volume=2.5M Target=$18.95 Stop=$15.12
POSITION: CHK AC - Jan. $15c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chk.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
ECL (Ecolab--$30.93; -0.24; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Paused Monday on lower volume after that strong volume surge Friday as ECL jumped off of a 50 day EMA (30.55) test while ECL forms its handle. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation, and money flow is surging ahead of price. Just waiting for ECL to follow the money and give us the breakout.
Volume: 730.2K Avg Volume: 624.136K
BUY POINT: $31.68 Volume=952K Target=$36.55 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: ECL AF - Jan. $30c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ecl.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$85.56; -0.74; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $85.63
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume remains very low as KMRT continues its excellent breakout test, holding over the 18 day EMA (84.01). Solid breakout from its double bottom with handle base in early September. A high volume move is the next entry point. Strong money flow and solid 6 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 921.61K Avg Volume: 2.765M
BUY POINT: New: 87.05 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Play Date: 09/20/2004
SIMG (Silicon Image--$12.05; -0.33; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
After Hours: $12.09
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped lower, but tapped the 18 day EMA (11.89) and rebounded to cut its losses. Volume was lower once again and below average as well. That keeps the 22 week base going. It used the 200 day SMA (10.75) as support for the bottom of the base, a key support as it shows institutions stepping up for their favorite stocks. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers. Money flow continues to surge ahead of the price. Just waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 810.337K Avg Volume: 978.227K
BUY POINT: $13.06 Volume=1.5M Target=$15.65 Stop=$12.72
POSITION: QSI CV - Mar. $12.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/simg.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$15.34; -0.18; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
After Hours: $15.28
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the very nice test of the breakout from the 21 week double bottom with handle early this month. A solid base that used the 200 day SMA (12.26) on the low as support, showing institutional support. This is its second test of the 18 day EMA (14.95) since the breakout. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA after the breakout; that leaves plenty of room for WITS to run higher on the current breakout move. Nice low volume on the pullback, showing very few sellers. Money flow continues to surge higher even as price makes this test. Just want to see stronger volume on the rebound move.
Volume: 161.527K Avg Volume: 349.227K
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=543K Target=$19 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/25/2004
HNI (HNI Corp.--$39.4; -0.05; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hni.html
STATUS: Put. HNI fell through the 50 and 200 day SMA (39.84, 39.90) Friday, and continued lower Monday before rebounding to close basically flat. On the high it tapped toward the 50 day but fell back. This looks something like an intraday test of the Friday break lower. That sets up further downside even better. May try another bounce up toward 39.76 once more before continuing the move down.
Volume: 136.7K Avg Volume: 105.318K
BUY POINT: $39.31 Volume=163K Target=$37.81 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: HNI WH - Nov. $40p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hni.html
Play Date: 09/23/2004
PPG (PPG Industries--$59.48; -0.18; optionable): Conglomerates
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppg.html
STATUS: Put. After the stronger volume fade last Wednesday and Thursday, PPG has bounced on much lower volume to test the 200 day SMA (59.78). It traded over that level Monday, but then reversed to close slightly lower. Looking for a stronger volume fade here to start positions after this lower volume test.
Volume: 414.1K Avg Volume: 487.681K
BUY POINT: $59.28 Volume=545K Target=$56.45 Stop=$58.89
POSITION: PPG WL - Nov. $60p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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