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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good moves Tuesday: AHC; CME; CREE; GD; SIE; SYMC; XLNX
In each report we prepare full write-ups for those plays that look ready to move. Those that have made the move or are still setting up are discussed in the continuing play table. The purpose is to focus on those stocks that are set to make us money.
NEW PLAYS:
New Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 09/28/2004
NUE (Nucor--$90.5; +4.21; optionable): Steel & iron. Splits 2:1 on 10-18-04.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
STATUS: Test breakout. NUE has been on a strong run along with many steel stocks. It just broke from a short 6 week double bottom two weeks back then formed the current flat consolidation over the 18 day EMA (86.67). It drifted down to test the 18 day EMA last week and then surged ahead Tuesday on the split news. Relative strength broke out on the move as well, a good corroboration of the break higher. Money flow is strong as well. Looking to move in on a further gain.
Volume: 2.148M Avg Volume: 1.401M
BUY POINT: $90.95 Volume=1.5M Target=$100 Stop=$89.98
POSITION: NUE AR - Jan. $90c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nue.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/28/2004
OS (Oregon Steel Mills--$16.81; +1.12; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/os.html
STATUS: Breakout test. OS blasted out of a 9 week flat base early this month on strong trade. It spent the next two weeks testing the breakout, holding over the 18 day EMA (15.83) as it moved in a flat range. Volume backed off until Tuesday when it jumped as OS jumped off the 18 day. Positive accumulation in the base and surging money flow as well. Relative strength is breaking out as well, a good corroboration of the breakout move. Looks ready to make some headway.
Volume: 724.6K Avg Volume: 382.125K
BUY POINT: $16.97 Volume=385K Target=$19.95 Stop=$15.78
POSITION: OS CC - Mar. $15c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/os.html
New Downside Plays:
Play Date: 09/28/2004
HOLX (Hologic--$18.94; +0.9; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/holx.html
After Hours: $18.92
STATUS: Put. HOLX tanked through the 200 day SMA (19.81) in August and then moved up along that resistance level through last week, unable to really punch through with any conviction. Its failure to do so led to the selling last week that dropped it hard. Another hard drop Monday on strong volume took it to the August low where it rebounded on much lower trade Tuesday. Looking for it to rebound a bit more toward 19.25. When it fails and rolls over there we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 104.962K Avg Volume: 115.841K
BUY POINT: $18.88 Volume=125K Target=$17.15 Stop=$19.45
POSITION: QHX WD - Nov. $20p (-68 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/holx.html
Play Date: 09/28/2004
CHIR (Chiron--$44.22; +0.63; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chir.html
After Hours: $44.24
STATUS: Put. Broke through the 50 day EMA (44.61) last week and was selling Monday on stronger volume. Tuesday it gapped higher to the 50 day, but that was as far as it got, showing a doji at that level on even stronger volume. Weak money flow and under distribution. Looking for it to continue lower after this gap to a doji. Looking for a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 1.797M Avg Volume: 1.619M
BUY POINT: $43.94 Volume=2M Target=$41.88 Stop=$44.55
POSITION: CIQ WI - Nov. $45p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chir.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 09/27/2004
OPTV (Opentv--$3.13; +0.08; no options): Multimedia & graphics software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optv.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher on volume Tuesday, but could not do much with the move, showing a doji on the close. Still very solid in its 11 month base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as the stock pulls back to test the break higher. Looking to move in on a further move higher on continued strong trade.
Volume: 552.415K Avg Volume: 474.735K
BUY POINT: $3.15 Volume=525K Target=$4.25 Stop=$2.93
POSITION: - Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optv.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AET: Forecast 10-28-04.
BMET: Researching next date.
BOL: Forecast 10-20-04
BRO: Forecast 10-6-04
BSC: Researching next date. Nice action this week.
CME: Forecast 10-20-04.
CMI: Forecast 10-12-04
DGX: Researching date.
EBAY: Forecast 10-20-04.
FLIR: Forecast 10-20-04
GD: Forecast 10-20-04
HDI: Forecast 10-13-04
KMRT: Forecast 11-15-04
NCEN: Forecast 10-5-04
NFX: Forecast 10-26-04
RL: Forecast 11-3-04.
SBUX: Forecast 10-20-04
SCSC: Forecast 10-12-04.
SIE: Forecast 10-20-04
STN: Forecast 10-28-04
UTX: Forecast 10-20-04.
VIP: Foreign. Researching the next potential date.
WWY: Forecast 10-26-04
XRAY: Forecast 10-26-04
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays, New buy points:
Play Date: 09/28/2004
EXBD (Corporate Executive Board--$59.73; +1.46; optionable): Business management services. Researching an exact date, but a good pattern.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split in July 2000 at a price of $60.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exbd.html
After Hours: $59.87
STATUS: Breakout test. Broke out from a short 9 week base in mid-August, rallying to 60. it then slipped into the current 6 week consolidation over 58. The 50 day EMA (57.67) rose to meet it, and that set off the next move higher on rising, above average volume. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to breakout. Solid leader ready to lead higher.
Volume: 295.287K Avg Volume: 213.702K
BUY POINT: $60.12 Volume=300K Target=$67.55 Stop=$58.55
POSITION: EBU LL - Dec. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/exbd.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays
Play Date: 08/31/2004
EBAY (Ebay--$90.24; +1.51; optionable): Internet auctions. Forecast 10-20-04 after the close.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 7-24-03 in conjunction with earnings at a stock price of $115. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 4-25-00 at a stock price of $153 and a 3 for 1 split on 1-26-99 at a stock price of $200. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-24-04 at which time additional shares were authorized.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ebay.html
After Hours: $90.63
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. EBAY has set up the handle to its 13 week base, holding at the 18 day EMA (89.43) as it works laterally, shaking out the last sellers as it pulls back from its recent high near 95. Volume surged Tuesday as it moved up over the 18 day. Solid money flow and just solid overall.
Volume: 12.163M Avg Volume: 10.041M
BUY POINT: New: $92 (orig. $88.05) Volume=14M Target=$105 Stop=$90.25
POSITION: XBA AR - Jan. $90c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ebay.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$85.85; +0.29; optionable): Discount variety stores. Forecast to announce a split on 11-25-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: It does not appear that KMRT has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-25-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $85.40
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding over the 18 day EMA (84.21), moving laterally on very low volume and in a very, very tight range. Money flow remains strong as it works on the next move in the breakout from its double bottom with handle base. Strong money flow and solid 6 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 1.136M Avg Volume: 2.782M
BUY POINT: New: 87.05 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/kmrt.html
Play Date: 09/11/2004
XRAY (Dentsply--$51.13; +0.79; optionable): Dental instruments and supplies. Forecast late October. Working to pinpoint a date.
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3 for 2 split on 12-12-01 at a stock price of $46.08.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
After Hours: $51.16
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Has held the 50 day EMA (50.41) in this handle to its 12 week base showing strong 5 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is solid, moving higher ahead of price. Still on the verge of breaking out, and just being patient to let it make the move.
Volume: 280.31K Avg Volume: 344.984K
BUY POINT: $52.38 Volume=494K Target=$58 Stop=$51.12
POSITION: XEQ AJ - Jan. $50c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 09/18/2004
IRM (Iron Mountain--$33.27; -0.03; optionable): Document storage
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/irm.html
After Hours: $33.18
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working on that handle to its 9 week base. It has shown some great volume spikes the past two weeks; we call those 'get ready' spikes, and we have been ready. Just waiting for it to make the breakout move.
Volume: 388.4K Avg Volume: 371.944K
BUY POINT: $33.65 Volume=500K Target=$38 Stop=$32.97
POSITION: IRY AZ - Jan. $33.38c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/irm.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$32.8; +0.98; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $32.93
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Similar to IRM and EBAY, YHOO is has formed a nice two week handle to its 12 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (26.99) as the low point of the pattern. It is currently shaking out the last sellers, coming back to tap the 18 day EMA (31.87) on the lows. Volume started to jump Tuesday, moving up to average. Looks ready to make the breakout and next run.
Volume: 18.251M Avg Volume: 20.632M
BUY POINT: New: $34.12 (orig. $32.48) Volume=25M Target=$40 Stop=$32.32
POSITION: YHQ AF - Jan. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/yhoo.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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