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stock trading site, stock trading pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: STJ; VRNT; YHOO; JCP
Best Plays:
1) TIBX: Huge money flow as the stock starts a volume rebound.
2) JUPM: Surging breakout on tremendous trade.
3) JCOM: May be ready to resume its strong running.
4) HRS: Volume starting up as it is ready to resume the breakout run.
5) WITS: Nice test, getting ready.
6) YHOO: Volume surging as it starts the next breakout.
7) HNI: Dropping on rising volume.
8) KCP: Turning down from the 50 day EMA on rising volume.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 09/29/2004
CRXL (Crucell--$8.16; +0.31; no options): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crxl.html
STATUS: Pennant. Working through a 6 month pattern that is using the 200 day SMA (7.66) as support the past 7 weeks as that important support levels rises to meet the stock. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows buyers moving into the stock as it moved laterally through the base. Volume jumped back above average Wednesday as the stock posted a strong move off the 200 day. Money flow is strong, and looking to move into positions as it moves past the early September high.
Volume: 173.596K Avg Volume: 128.802K
BUY POINT: $8.32 Volume=175K Target=$10 Stop=$8.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/crxl.html
Play Date: 09/29/2004
JCOM (J2 Global Communications--$31.34; +1.58; optionable): Communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jcom.html
After Hours: $31.45
STATUS: Cup. JCOM is starting to move up the right side of a big 12 month cup base, the last part being a 12 week cup with handle base. It broke out of that smaller pattern 8 sessions back, came back to test last week, and then shot higher Wednesday on stronger trade. Solid 14 to 5 accumulation in the pattern has set the stage for a move higher. The test of this breakout puts the stock in a good risk/reward position. Looking to pick it off as it continues the move on solid volume.
Volume: 1.029M Avg Volume: 725.642K
BUY POINT: $31.75 Volume=850K Target=$37 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: JQF CF - Mar. $30c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jcom.html
Play Date: 09/29/2004
JUPM (Jupitermedia--$17.44; +1.54; optionable): Online information, images, research and events for IT
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jupm.html
After Hours: $17.56
STATUS: Breakout. JUPM is making a high volume breakout from a 5 week ascending triangle that tops off two short bases that started in April and have advanced the stock right up the 50 day EMA (14.09). The last breakout was on extremely strong volume, and the Wednesday breakout saw the same kind of volume. Excellent 8 to 1 in the bases and surging money flow to boot. Ready to pick up some positions on the further move higher and then again on the test.
Volume: 1.856M Avg Volume: 517.855K
BUY POINT: $17.57 Volume=550K Target=$21 Stop=$16.88
POSITION: EUU BW - Feb. $17.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/jupm.html
Play Date: 09/29/2004
TIBX (Tibco Software--$8.47; +0.37; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tibx.html
After Hours: $8.46
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped back up Wednesday as TIBX moved off the test of the 10 day EMA (7.95) that formed a short but nice handle. Starting the breakout from a 6 month base with a very pronounced undercut of the left leg. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base has set the stage for the breakout. Ready to pick up positions on a strong move through the recent high.
Volume: 4.772M Avg Volume: 2.591M
BUY POINT: $8.71 Volume=3.5M Target=$10.48 Stop=$8.45
POSITION: PAV BU - Feb. $7.50c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tibx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
New buy points on current plays:
Play Date: 09/14/2004
AMMD (American Medical Systems--$35.46; +0.26; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ammd.html
After Hours: $35.46
STATUS: Breakout test. Ready for the next entry point as AMMD has come back to test the 10 day EMA (34.99), tapping that level and then starting back up Wednesday. Holding the breakout from its 9 week double bottom with handle base. Strong money flow is rising ahead of the stock, relative strength ready to break higher again. Ready for more on stronger volume bouncing.
Volume: 333.977K Avg Volume: 242.7K
BUY POINT: New: $35.72 (orig. $33.64) Volume=250K Target=$40 Stop=$35.65
POSITION: FGU BG - Feb. $35c (44 delta) or FBU BF - Feb. $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ammd.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
KMRT (Kmart Holding--$88.06; +2.21; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmrt.html
After Hours: $87.99
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume started higher Wednesday as KMRT started the move off of the test of the 18 day EMA (84.61). Nice breakout test looks to be ending. Still a buy on a further volume moved higher. Strong money flow and solid 6 to 1 accumulation.
Volume: 2.006M Avg Volume: 2.775M
BUY POINT: New: 88.45 (orig. $80.22) Volume=3.6M Target=$100 Stop=$85.38
POSITION: KTQ LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kmrt.html
Play Date: 09/02/2004
YHOO (Yahoo!--$34; +1.2; optionable): Internet portal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yhoo.html
After Hours: $34.02
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped sharply Wednesday as YHOO surged off of the 18 day EMA (32.09) and toward the breakout from its 12 week base. Pretty much textbook pattern, using the 200 day SMA (27.05) as support on the low. Solid 5 to 3 accumulation in the pattern. Starting the move and ready to move into new positions.
Volume: 30.205M Avg Volume: 20.496M
BUY POINT: New: $34.12 (orig. $32.48) Volume=25M Target=$40 Stop=$32.32
POSITION: YHQ AF - Jan. $35c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/yhoo.html
Continuing not yet entered:
Play Date: 09/16/2004
FLS (Flowserve--$24.35; +0.47; optionable): Precision engineered flow control equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. FLS has bounced up off of the 50 day EMA (23.39) after tapping that level in the low of the handle to its 12 week base. It is knocking on the door of a breakout. Solid 4 to 1 accumulation in the base has set the stage for the breakout along with some strong money flow. Need to see more volume on the breakout.
Volume: 228.4K Avg Volume: 284.425K
BUY POINT: $24.44 Volume=415K Target=$28.48 Stop=$23.62
POSITION: FLS BE - Feb. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fls.html
Play Date: 09/27/2004
HRS (Harris Corp.--$53.42; +0.01; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hrs.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice, tight and low volume test of its massive breakout. HRS exploded out of a 7.5 month trading range two weeks back, making the move on very strong, above average volume. It rallied to 55 and is making its first test of the move, one of our favorite entry points. Strong 10 to 5 accumulation in the trading range and excellent money flow. It is taking those additional sessions to complete the test, but it is getting close.
Volume: 422.4K Avg Volume: 356.9K
BUY POINT: $53.88 Volume=600K Target=$59 Stop=$52.44
POSITION: HRS BK - Feb. $55c (47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hrs.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
WITS (Witness Systems--$15.66; +0.06; no options): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wits.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Waiting, waiting, waiting for the breakout test to end, but it is a very nice test, holding the 18 day EMA (15.08) on very low, below average volume. Strong breakout from the 21 week double bottom with handle early this month that used the 200 day SMA (12.32) on the low, showing institutional support. This is its second test of the 18 day since the breakout. Strong stocks tend to make 4 to 5 bounces up off the 10 or 18 day EMA after the breakout; and that leaves plenty of room for WITS to run higher on the current breakout move. Waiting for the break higher on strong trade.
Volume: 165.892K Avg Volume: 361.6K
BUY POINT: $16.21 Volume=543K Target=$19 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wits.html
Downside:
Play Date: 09/27/2004
CENT (Central Garden & Pet--$30.22; +0.05; optionable): Garden and pet supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cent.html
After Hours: $30.22
STATUS: Put. Making a modest rebound back up toward the 50 day SMA (30.59) after crashing through that level Monday. Looking for the stock to fail here and continue the move lower. Money flow remains in the tank. Looking to step in on a further move lower to ride it down near the August low at 28 for a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 102.519K Avg Volume: 211.163K
BUY POINT: New: $29.97 (orig. $29.61) Volume=200K Target=$27.88 Stop=$30.05
POSITION: EQH WF - Nov. $30p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cent.html
Play Date: 09/25/2004
HNI (HNI Corp.--$39.02; -0.58; optionable): Business equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hni.html
STATUS: Put. Looking good as it starts down from an intraday test of the 50 day SMA (39.68) on continued strong, above average volume. After dancing around the 50 day EMA and 200 day SMA it looks ready to make the dive lower.
Volume: 164.5K Avg Volume: 109.358K
BUY POINT: New: $38.98 (orig. $39.31) Volume=163K Target=$37.81 Stop=$39.95
POSITION: HNI WH - Nov. $40p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hni.html
Play Date: 09/27/2004
KCP (Kenneth Cole--$29.5; -0.33; optionable): Shoes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kcp.html
STATUS: Put. Volume remains strong as KCP tapped the 50 day SMA (29.97) on the high and rolled over on that strong trade. Looks ready to make the move lower as money flow rolls over with the stock. Looking to move in on a further drop on volume for a 46%ish gain.
Volume: 137.1K Avg Volume: 87.225K
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=126K Target=$27.75 Stop=$30.12
POSITION: KCP WF - Nov. $30p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kcp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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