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Free Weekend Newsletter
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Table Of Contents
1) MARKET SUMMARY
2) PRE-SPLIT PLAY
3) TECHNICAL PLAY
4) COVERED CALL PLAY
5) PUT WRITE
6) IPOs
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The following Investment Newsletter is provided by the InvestmentHouse.com family of websites which include StockSplits.net, CoveredCall.Com and TechnicalTraders.com.
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Investing Q & As
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1) MARKET SUMMARY
The holiday relief rally finally emerges on Friday.
-Friday was a start, but the market has a long way to go with overhead and remaining worries.
-Shoppers were out on Friday, but the economy is far from solid.
-Lots of economic news scheduled for this week along with more election fun.
- Subscriber questions
- Team Trades
Click Here to read the full text of our Weekend Market Summary. Topics this weekend include: The Economy, The Markets, This Week's Economic Calendar; What To
Expect This Week In The Markets and our popular Team Trades column.
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2) STOCK SPLITS
Be sure to read our Stock Splits Manual. Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how.
Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength).
We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don’t let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock’s movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down.
Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don’t try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us.
Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.
UNH(United Health--$115.06; +2.37; optionable): Announced a 2:1 stock split, effective December 22.
Company Profile
STATUS: After pulling back Wednesday the stock again held support at its 18 day MVA (112.08) for a push back up Friday, staying in the range of its recent consolidation as the stock moves in what appears to be an ascending wedge. The stock reached up to a high of 117.94 last week, and we will look for the stock to move over that level for positions.
BUY POINT: A move over 118 on volume in the 1.5 million range.
POSITION: Stock and/or January $115 calls to buy (UNH AC).
Chart by StockCharts.com
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3) A TECHNICAL PLAY
MSFT MSFT (Microsoft Corporation--$69.94; +1.69; optionable (MSQ))
Company Profile
STATUS: The stock is in a pennant pattern above support of its 50 day and
short term moving averages (10 day MVA is at 68.56). Volume has
appropriately declined throughout (reaching 17.2 million by Friday; avg.
41.6 million). On a certification of votes in Bush's favor (perhaps Sunday
night), look for a breakout over the pattern high of 72.38. The
widely-held view is that a Republican presidency will end Microsoft's
legal difficulties. The 200 day MVA is ahead at 74.72. Relative strength
continues a steady uptrend.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: On a move up from here on a rise in volume.
Safer: Over 72.51, on volume of 56 million or better.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or January $65 or $70 calls to buy (MSQ
AM or AN). Safer: Stock and/or January $70 calls to buy (MSQ AN).
Chart by StockCharts.com
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4) A COVERED CALL PLAY
AFL Aflac Inc. is currently trading at $65 5/8 The Jan $65 calls (AFLAM) are trading at $4.50. That provides downside protection of 6% and a return of about 6% in two months if the stock is above $65 on expiration Friday in January.
Chart by StockCharts.com
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5) PUT WRITE
We have a put write for your review for those of you that are interested in this strategy. Since put writing is a "naked" position, please don't enter this trade unless you are very knowledgeable about this type of play. Consider buying puts below the mentioned put as well (ie, a spread position).
BCGI - Bed Bath & Beyond is trading at $21 3/8. The Dec 20 puts (BHQXD) are currently trading at $1 1/8.
Chart by StockCharts.com
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6) IPOs
ADR IPOs Ride Wave of Volatility
Kyle Huske
As volatility rolls through global markets, the latest ADR offerings are getting swept along for the ride. The last 15 ADRs to price are down an average of 15% with most between 5% and 40% below their offering prices.
ADRs typically track the shares trading in the company’s home country. That eliminates arbitrage opportunities and leaves ADRs to react to domestic political problems such as the violence in the Middle East or the leadership crisis in Taiwan. Meanwhile in the U.S. the uncertainty of the undecided presidential election has depressed the Dow and the Nasdaq. Perhaps it is more valuable to see how the individuals fared in the broader markets after opening day.
(This IPO story is continued on our website in the IPO Forum.)
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Good Investing! See you right here next week!
Your Friends at
InvestmentHouse.com
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For return calculations on our covered call, credit spread or put plays Click Here.
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Eric J. Aafedt of Online Investment Services, LP., or Jon Johnson of Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Eric J. Aafedt or Jon Johnson may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. Eric J. Aafedt and Jon Johnson do not receive compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter.
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