|
|
stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: With that market surge there were many.
Thursday night play results:
AMT: Jumped on strong volume but gave it al back by the close.
NCR: Ready for the breakout.
CGNX: Tested a bit higher but still looks ready to fade.
RGS: Nope. Up through the 50 day EMA.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/02/2004
BMET (Biomet--$47.94; +1.06; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmet.html
After Hours: $47.94
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Friday as BMET started higher in the handle of its 12 week base. The pattern formed over the 50 day EMA (45.76), a good sign of institutional support. Accumulation in the base is 3 to 2 (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers during the consolidation. Volume has been solid the past two sessions, and then looking for a strong breakout move.
Volume: 2.195M Avg Volume: 2.024M
BUY POINT: $48.32 Volume=2.5M Target=$56 Stop=$47.48
POSITION: BIQ AW - Jan. $47.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bmet.html
Play Date: 10/02/2004
EMR (Emerson Electric--$63.90; +2.01; optionable): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
STATUS: Cup. EMR shot off of the 50 day EMA (62.02) Friday on a second day of strong, above average volume. The stock is following some surging money flow, ready for the breakout from its 8.5 month base. Accumulation is positive at 8 to 6, showing net buyers, and that sets the stage for a strong breakout and run higher. Excellent base and a market leader ready to make a breakout move.
Volume: 1.726M Avg Volume: 1.247M
BUY POINT: $64.34 Volume=1.9M Target=$74 Stop=$63.15
POSITION: EMR LM - Dec. $65c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/emr.html
Play Date: 10/02/2004
FFIV (F5 Networks--$31.63; +1.17; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/ffiv.html
After Hours: $31.55
STATUS: Cup. FFIV is coming off a 200 day SMA (28.53) test that formed the 3 week handle to its 8.5 month base. This is the second solid move off of the pattern lows at 22, using the 200 day as the launch pad. It did not attract much volume on this bounce; looking for that to come in as it continues the move. Very solid action that just needs some volume.
Volume: 815.388K Avg Volume: 962.654K
BUY POINT: $31.82 Volume=1.4M Target=$37 Stop=$30.98
POSITION: FLK AF - Jan. $30c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ffiv.html
Play Date: 10/02/2004
MRVL (Marvell Technology--$28.04; +1.91; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html
After Hours: $28
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Explosive breakout move Friday as MRVL surged past its Sept highs and cleared the handle to its 12 month base. Volume was up, but was not what you would call blowout. Still, a very solid pattern sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation and surging money flow leading the way higher. Relative Strength posted a strong breakout on the move as well, a very good corroboration of the move. Looking to start positions on a further move from here and then add some on a breakout test.
Volume: 6.024M Avg Volume: 4.766M
BUY POINT: $28.32 Volume=700K Target=$32.62 Stop=$27.22
POSITION: UVM BY - Feb. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mrvl.html
Play Date: 10/02/2004
SWKS (Skyworks Solutions--$9.99; +0.51; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/swks.html
After Hours: $10.04
STATUS: Cup. Another chip that has broken through the 200 day SMA (9.47) in September twice and then failed twice. It ended the week, however, with a strong move back above that key level on a solid volume shot. It is continuing the work on the right side of its 6 month base, showing excellent volume the past three weeks as it started the move; that is the exact price/volume action you want to see in this stage of the base. Looking to pick it up as it clears some resistance at 10. Excellent money flow is leading the way higher.
Volume: 4.353M Avg Volume: 3.256M
BUY POINT: $10.16 Volume=4.9M Target=$12.49 Stop=$9.72
POSITION: GAK BB - Feb. $10c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/swks.html
Downside:
Play Date: 10/02/2004
CX (Cemex SA--$28.55; +0.41; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
STATUS: Put. Not all building materials stocks are moving higher. CX thudded lower Monday, crashing through the 200 day SMA (28.58) on tremendous volume. It has made a reflex bounce, but on lower and lower volume. Heavy distribution and tanking money flow underscore the weakness. Looking for it to roll over here at the 200 day SMA and continue the selling for a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 1.341M Avg Volume: 920.408K
BUY POINT: $28.41 Volume=950K Target=$27.15 Stop=$28.67
POSITION: CX WF - Nov. $30p (-70 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
stock recommendation
stock pick
|
