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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 3 of 4
WHR (Whirlpool--$67.88; -0.70; optionable): Consumer Durables: Appliances. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whr.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that WHR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: WHR broke out of a 14-month cup with handle in early July, hitting a high of 71.93 before pulling back to test the breakout, catching support at the 50 day MVA (65.87). It bounced from that level and made it through its short-term MVA's (10 day at 68.02) Wednesday, pulling back today on slightly higher volume but holding near support. Not that exciting yet as volume is timid, so we will see if it continues to consolidate for a run toward the breakout. The high in the handle is at 71.93. Target: 82.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 70 on increased volume (675,100 today; average 658,700). Stop: 67.50. Breakout: 72.06 on volume of 988,000. Stop: 67.50.
POSITIONS: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (WHR IM). Breakout: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (WHR IN).
DSL (Downey Financial--$57.35; +0.42; no options): Savings & Loan. Researching a possible announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsl.html
STATUS: DSL is moving in an 8-month cup with handle, and fell back hard Tuesday to its 18 day MVA (56.30, in the range of its July highs). It has held that level the last two sessions, today showing a doji on the 10 day. Holding support is a solid signal, and we will look for it to continue in the handle and give us a breakout.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 60.22 on volume of 270,000. Stop: 56.
POSITION: Stock only.
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$67.81; +1.55; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2:1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has made a strong move up, forming a cup pattern. It has shown some volatility, hitting 71.15 at its high before pulling back to its 10 day MVA (65.31). Today it launched another move, but after hitting up to an intraday high of 70.70 the stock pulled way back to close, still holding a gain on very solid volume (1.87 million; average 743,000). Off of this pattern it looks like it could retreat some more; we will see if it settles down here and forms a handle. From that pattern we can look for another good move. Target: 80.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: After settling down and forming a handle, holding the 10 day, a move back over 68 on continued strong volume. Stop: 65.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (QVD IM).
KRB (Mbna Corp--$36.43; -0.40; optionable): Banks. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split was on 7-14-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: After the nice move Tuesday, the stock again turned back at its down trendline (connecting the September, January and May closing highs). That line has been stiff resistance, turning back KRB in early August as well. Today it gapped down, touching its 18 day MVA (36.12) before showing a doji. It has formed something of a cup since late May, and we will need to see it take out the recent highs over the trendline for positions. Target: 45.
BUY POINT: Over 37.75 on above average volume (2.5 million; today up to 2.33 million). Stop: 36.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (KRB IG).
THQI (THQ Inc.--$54.25; -0.93; optionable): Looking for the announcement, and are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-26-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $33. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: THQI has battled back, making a solid run back up after having taken a hard fall back from recent highs at 60 (all-time high at 62). It hit lows below 43 on the last drop, perhaps shaking out the sellers, and it made a strong surge last week up through the 50 day MVA (51.54). The momentum has slowed somewhat, today seeing THQI tap back toward the 50 day before reaching back up to close with a doji. Volume was low at 641,000 (average 792,400), and we could get another test back to support before a continuation of the move (recent high on the move 55.29). On a move, we will initially target the high at 62 and see how it handles that, ready to take profits on weakness.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: 55.41 above average volume. Stop: Just below the 50 day MVA.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $50 calls to buy (QHI IJ - low open interest).
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$29.46; +0.10; optionable): Retail. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: BBBY gapped back below its up trendline (connecting March and August 2000 and May 2001 levels), tapping back over it at its high of 29.90 but retreating back to close on the line. The move was weak at 1.55 million (average 3 million), and there is a lot of resistance here, with the 10 day MVA at 30.10 and the 50 day at 30.45. It could try to hold on and put in a bottom here, but we would need to see quite a solid move up for upside positions. In the meantime, we will see if it makes a run back down, and we can concentrate on a quick put play before we concentrate on the upside again. The target is support back the 200 day MVA, at 26.74.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move below 29 on above average selling volume.
POSITION: September $35 puts to buy (BHQ UG).
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$33.84; -0.16; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: Still tightening up in a pennant, holding with tight daily candlestick patterns over its short-term MVA's (10 day at 33.70). Volume is low (90,000 today; average 207,000), decent action in this type of pattern. Still looking for it to come to life and make a move over recent highs in the pattern (35.20 and the all-time high of 37.55). Target on a new high: 43.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 34.45 on average or better volume. Stop: 33.20. Breakout: 35.33 on above average volume. Stop: 33.20.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (NDN IF).
FDC (First Data--$68.20; -0.98; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC broke from a lengthy consolidation in July, but since has dropped back and is now forming a pennant pattern. It recovered back over its 50 day and short-term MVA's the past week (50 day and 18 day at 67.41 and 68.10), rising on volume that continued to be below the average. Today it dipped back a bit but held the short-term MVA's to close, moving on slightly lower volume (down today at 1.35 million; average 1.48 million). Not a bad move, so we will see if it can hold and then make a move with stronger volume over its recent highs. The pattern high (and all-time high) is at 72.25.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 69.50 on above average volume. Stop: 67.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $65 calls to buy (FDC KM).
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.
DCOM (Dime Comm. Bancshare--$42.25; +0.50; no options): S&L. Splits 3:2 effective August 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: DCOM made a strong move this week, but appears to have topped after hitting up to the 42.88 Tuesday and Wednesday and then pulling back off to close. Today it showed a second consecutive doji as volume remains strong (118,900; average 54,400), and we will see what it can do going into Wednesday's split. Still looks like a pullback,w with the 10 day MVA below at 40.15, and there is not much time for a bounce.
PLAY: After a move back that holds 40-41, a run back up, with stock. Stop: 39.
FRK (Florida Rock Industries--$55.00; +0.15; no options): Announced a 3:2 stock split last week, effective September 4.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frk.html
STATUS: FRK has rebounded nicely from its 50 day MVA (50.46) and is now in a small lateral consolidation formed in the range of its former pennant pattern from late July. Volume has dipped the last two sessions (30,400 today; average 42,700), and today it showed a doji. We could get a test back to the 10 day MVA (53.37) or the 54 level, but we will continue to look for a move from here as well. Initial target: 65.
BUY POINT: After holding support at the 53.37-54 level, a move back over 55. Stop: 52.
POSITION: Stock only.
POOL (SCP Pool--$40.20; -0.05); no options): Wholesale basic materials. Splits 3:2 effective September 7.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pool.html
STATUS: POOL broke from its small lateral consolidation Tuesday but has not been able to continue up, instead showing consecutive dojis and testing 40 at its lows. We will see if it is just resting, and if it blasts up from here it is still a buy up to 42.02. We could also see it test the 10 day MVA (39.71), and if it does we will watch for a strong bounce back up. Target: 48.
PLAY: A buy up to 42.02 on continued strong volume, with stock only. Stop: 39. Pullback: After a test of the 10 day, a move back over 40.30. Stop: 38.50.
CECO (Career Education--$62.45; +0.86; no options): Announced a 2:1 stock split, with the effective date TBA.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: CECO is trying to fight back yet again from its 50 day MVA (59.48), from where it has made numerous successful bounces in recent months. The stock made a good move after the split announcement, hitting a new high of 67.09, but fell back before finally catching support in the range of the 50 day. Today CECO finally was able to hold a move back over its short-term MVA's (10 day at 61.89), but volume dipped back below average at 188,800 (average 217,000). We will see if CECO can capture some momentum, as it has certainly showed us some solid moves in the recent past when it gets some strength behind it. Not much of a pattern here, however.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 63.50 on above average volume, with stock. Stop: 59.25.
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
ACF (Americredit--$56.87; -3.82; optionable): Credit Services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 8-18-98 at a stock price of $35. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-7-00 at which time no authorized shares were increased. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2:1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Tried to make the move but then finally gave in, dropping back through its recent consolidation at 60 and closing just above its 50 day MVA (56.50). It tapped 55.30 at its low, where it has support from its May high, but volume on the selling was huge at 4.29 million (average 1 million). We will see if it can hold, and if not, we could be looking soon at a put play. Nothing for Friday.
ASW (ACLN Ltd--$37.65; -0.78; no options): Former ACLNF (Shipping).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aclnf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 8-14-00 at a stock price of $39. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ASW continues the volatility, bouncing up and down without taking much time for any type of consolidation. It made a solid move Monday (continuing from the prior week), but after hitting 40.98 it has tumbled back, albeit on much lighter volume (84,900 today; average 142,000). We will see if it can hold its short-term MVA's (closed at the 10 day, and tapped the 18 day at its low of 36.60 today - also the level of its short-term up trendline connecting July and August lows). If it holds we could see another solid move up, but it would be a play geared toward grabbing the short term bounce and then getting out. We will watch the recent high at 41 carefully on such a move. The stock shows excellent money flow and buying. Target: 45.
BUY POINT: Aggressive bounce: After holding the 37 range, a move back over 38.50 on increased volume near the average. Stop: 36.75.
POSITION: Stock only.
BRL (Barr Laboratories--$84.60; +0.25; optionable): No announcement, but a bounce with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BRL pulled back and tested its breakout over the June high, holding that support and is now slowly edging up along its 10 day MVA (82.59). Not the greatest pattern from which to launch a move, but we will see if can continue to hold support off of today's doji and perhaps pull laterally a bit, and look for a continuation of the upward momentum with some more gusto. The high (from late July) is at 90.60. Target on a breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: After a test of the 10 day, a move over 85.25 on above average volume (809,000; today 806,600). Stop: 81.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $80 calls to buy (BRL KP).
BRO (Brown & Brown--$47.60; 0.00; no options): Insurance Brokers. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with its regularly scheduled board meeting. The stock price was $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-18-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: BRO has pulled into another tight, lateral consolidation after having failed on its recent breakout attempt. It gave up its 18 day MVA (47.71) today, showing a very tight doji on very low, sharply down volume of 23,100 (average 50,000). There has been quite a bit of volume of late but the stock has remained in the tight pattern, but that volume could signal that a move is coming. We will see if it is to the upside. Excellent relative strength and very solid money flow. Target on a breakout: 58.
BUY POINT: Breakout: A move back over 50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.25. Aggressive: 48.50 on above average volume. Stop: 45.40.
POSITION: Stock only.
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$74.31; +0.02; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH has dipped back to test its July breakout of a small saucer, holding those highs (at its 50 day MVA, 72.96). After a strong push up from support last Friday the stock has run up against the short-term MVA's (18 day at 74.69), showing three consecutive dojis with volume dipping back considerably (87,800 today; average 138,000). We could see another visit to the 50 day, but are looking for a solid, strong recovery move. Target: 86.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 76 on above average volume. Stop: 72.50. Breakout: 78.12 on continued strong volume. Stop: 74.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (CBH IN). Breakout: Stock and/or September $75 calls to buy (CBH IO).
DV (Devry--$37.00; +0.18; optionable): Education services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dv.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 5-6-98 at a stock price of $39.76. The annual shareholder meeting was on 11-14-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: DV was moving in a steady handle consolidation to an eight-month cup, holding support over the 10 day MVA (38.03), but that changed early this week, as the stock sold back through support on big volume and continued down to catch support at the 50 day MVA (36.69). We did not get the announcement, and the stock is slightly below the historic split range. However, DV is still holding the range of the early July consolidation and the 50 day MVA, so we will watch to see what develops. On further selling we don't have a lot of room for a put play, and it is not an upside play from here. Nothing new for Friday.
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$64.36; +0.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 6-20-00 at a stock price of $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: FITB is just stair-stepping its way up the short-term MVAs (10 day 63.56, 18 day 63.10), moving in a gradually ascending pattern. The stock has cleared 64, today showing a lower volume doji just above that level (down to 1.34 million, average 1.58 million). But, if FITB holds true to form, we may see another test of the 10 or 18 day before we see another move up. We've seen generally below average volume during the month of August, and it hasn't been enough to propel FITB up in a solid move. We are looking for very heavy volume on a run out of the pattern. Target on breakout: 75.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 64.90, on volume of 2.3 million. Stop: 62.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $60 calls to buy (FTQ KL).
End Part 3 of 4
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stock watch
stock split
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