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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: CHK; ECL; ENWV; GLDN; OPTV; PRXL; SYNA; VRNT
Best Plays:
1) SOX: Looks ready to make the move off the 50 day EMA and support at 400.
2) FDS: Making the breakout move on volume.
3) SGMS: Volume surge on a breakout move.
4) VMSI: Money flow is surging.
5) NXTP: Getting ready.
6) PPDI: Just needs some volume on this move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/06/2004
SOX (Philly Semiconductor Index--$406.2; +1.62; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/^/^sox.html
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. After making a higher low to close out September, SOX surged through the 50 day EMA (395) last Friday. It has tapped at some support at 400 the last two sessions, rebounding on the close. Chips were one of the leaders up off the recent lows, and after this breather it will be ready for the next leg higher.
BUY POINT: $408.78 Target=$445 Stop=$404.55
POSITION: SXX KB - Nov. $410c (46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/^sox.html
Play Date: 10/06/2004
FDS (Factset Research--$50.51; +1.79; optionable): Information and delivery software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fds.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume has really improved the past three weeks as FDS surged off of the 50 day EMA (46.15) to form the right side of its 15 week base. It moved laterally on lower though still solid trade, then jumped off the 10 day EMA (48.73) Wednesday on another shot of solid, above average volume. It is starting the breakout move, and we are looking to start a position on a further solid breakout, then look for a test of the breakout to add to positions.
Volume: 464.6K Avg Volume: 278.545K
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=335K Target=$58 Stop=$47.55
POSITION: FDS CJ - Mar. $50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fds.html
Play Date: 10/06/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$19.88; +1.22; optionable): PC hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
After Hours: $19.88
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume is surging as SGMS makes the breakout from its 6 month base. A classic pattern with the August low, the second low in the base, undercutting the May low. It used the 18 day EMA (18.75) as support for the handle as volume dried up. Just the action you want to see in the handle. Solid volume breakout and looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 974.195K Avg Volume: 553.227K
BUY POINT: $20.12 Volume=650K Target=$24 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: TUJ AD - Jan. $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
Play Date: 10/06/2004
VMSI (Ventana Medical Sys.--$51.77; +1.15; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmsi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. VMSI is sitting near an all-time high as it works in the handle of its 12 week base. The pattern formed using the 200 day SMA (46.16) on the low, a good sign of institutional support. It then rallied and formed the current handle, using the 50 day EMA (49.36) as support. Strong 3 to 0 accumulation in the pattern has set up the breakout move, showing net buyers as it consolidated. Excellent money flow is out ahead of price and pointing the direction. Volume was up Wednesday as it moved toward the breakout. Looking to step in on a further volume move.
Volume: 180.325K Avg Volume: 162K
BUY POINT: $52.08 Volume=243K Target=$59 Stop=$50.25
POSITION: UMI CJ - Mar. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vmsi.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/02/2004
EMR (Emerson Electric--$63.75; +0.91; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
STATUS: Cup. EMR has been knocking on the breakout door, moving up to 64 Monday, backing off Tuesday, and then rebounding off the 18 day EMA (62.75) Wednesday. Still hanging in there in its 9 month base. Money flow is surging higher. After this higher low we anticipate EMR will follow the money.
Volume: 1.094M Avg Volume: 1.236M
BUY POINT: $64.34 Volume=1.9M Target=$74 Stop=$63.15
POSITION: EMR LM - Dec. $65c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/emr.html
Play Date: 09/16/2004
FLS (Flowserve--$24.80; +0.33; optionable): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fls.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. FLS is trying to make the breakout from its 13 week base, but volume has not been there this week. Still a very nice base that used the 200 and 50 day EMA as support as it worked laterally. Money flow is rallying ahead of the stock, and FLS looks ready to follow it higher.
Volume: 179.2K Avg Volume: 268.454K
BUY POINT: $24.44 Volume=415K Target=$28.48 Stop=$23.62
POSITION: FLS BE - Feb. $25c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/fls.html
Play Date: 10/02/2004
KOOL (Thermogenesis--$5.13; +0.06; no options): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kool.html
STATUS: Cup. KOOL hit the buy point late in the session, with basically no time left. Volume was not there anyway, so we were not too upset. It is moving over some resistance in its 9 month base, and if gets some more trade we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 111.496K Avg Volume: 112.636K
BUY POINT: $5.11 Volume=200K Target=$6.49 Stop=$4.89
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/kool.html
Play Date: 10/05/2004
NXTP (Nextel Partners--$16.6; +0.04; optionable): Telecom wireless
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtp.html
After Hours: $16.52
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume dropped off the table as NXTP continued its work on a weeklong handle to its 14 week base sporting solid 6 to 4 accumulation. Excellent money flow is rallying higher ahead of the price. Getting ready for the move.
Volume: 748.966K Avg Volume: 1.739M
BUY POINT: $16.88 Volume=2M Target=$20.25 Stop=$15.88
POSITION: KTU BW - Feb. $17.50c (43 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nxtp.html
Play Date: 10/04/2004
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Product Dev.--$37.03; +0.84; optionable): Medical labs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
After Hours: $37
STATUS: Breakout test. PPDI was making the price move but volume simply was not there. We were tempted to move in as it moved off the 10 day EMA (36.20), but without the volume we held back. Still a solid 9 week cup with handle base breakout and solid 3 to 0 accumulation during the pattern. Just want to see more volume on a continued move that follow the money flow higher.
Volume: 288.471K Avg Volume: 460.59K
BUY POINT: New: $37.12 (orig. $36.55) Volume=683K Target=$42.54 Stop=$35.66
POSITION: PJQ AG - Jan. $35c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ppdi.html
Play Date: 10/04/2004
SAPE (Sapient--$8.49; +0.15; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sape.html
After Hours: $8.40
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. SAPE stalled after the strong Monday move, but it is holding its ground, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low (8.11) and rebounding to post a gain. Money flow continues to lead higher after the 50 day EMA, and we are just looking for volume to resume as the stock moves through the buy point. To recap: after a late July breakout and run up the 18 day EMA (7.91), SAPE has come back to test the 50 day EMA (7.40) on much lower, below average volume. It found that support and then exploded higher Monday on a very strong volume surge, helped along by the SEBL announcement. Strong money flow is leading higher and relative strength is breaking out as well, a good corroboration of the stock's strength. Strong stocks breakout, rally 4 to 5 bounces up the 18 day EMA, test the 50 day EMA, and then start back up.
Volume: 795.235K Avg Volume: 1.388M
BUY POINT: $8.62 Volume=1.6M Target=$10.35 Stop=$8.28
POSITION: SQC AU - Jan. $7.50c (76 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sape.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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