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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: AMT; APCS; CAND; MVSN; SNDA
Weekend play results:
ARTI: Testing the 18 day EMA with a nice low volume pullback.
CAND: Nice rebound off the 18 day EMA on volume.
INCY: Still working on the test.
KRY: Took a breather on lower volume.
SWC: Was not quite ready to make the move but still holding the pattern.
VPWT: Continues the very nice low volume handle to its sweet base.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/11/2004
DHR (Danaher--$53.45; +0.42; optionable): General building materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dhr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice low volume test of the strong Wednesday breakout. DHR shot out of a 13 week flat trading range, following some strong money flow higher. Outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) shows almost all buyers during the base, setting up that strong breakout. Relative strength broke out on last week's move, a good corroboration of the breakout. It held above the September high, a good sign of strength. Looking for volume to rise as it continues the move back up.
Earnings: 10-21
Volume: 544.5K Avg Volume: 1.358M
BUY POINT: $53.89 Volume=1.6M Target=$60 Stop=$52.48
POSITION: DHR AX - Jan. $52.50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dhr.html
Play Date: 10/11/2004
DRS (DRS Technologies--$38.39; -0.02; optionable): Aerospace/ defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
STATUS: Ascending base. A nice fade back to the 10 day EMA (38.26) as DRS sets up to make a higher low in its 13 week base. DRS gapped higher to start July when it rejected a takeover attempt by LLL. It has shown strong accumulation (5 to 1) as it worked laterally in the base. The higher low and very narrow range the past two sessions along with the nice above average volume surge Monday is telling us to get ready for a breakout move.
Earnings: Nov. 5
Volume: 399.6K Avg Volume: 260.045K
BUY POINT: $39.34 Volume=400K Target=$45 Stop=$38.18
POSITION: DRS CH - Mar. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drs.html
Play Date: 10/11/2004
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$15.82; +1.33; optionable): Thin-film solar cell products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
After Hours: $15.85
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Volume surged Monday as ENER broke out from a 13 month base sporting solid 13 to 9 accumulation. Right stock at the right time.
Volume: 490.682K Avg Volume: 115.636K
BUY POINT: $15.97 Volume=200K Target=$19 Stop=$14.97
POSITION: EQI CC - Mar. $15c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ener.html
Play Date: 10/11/2004
TZOO (Travelzoo--$56.88; +5.89; no options): Internet travel databases
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tzoo.html
After Hours: $56.50
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume surged back above average Monday as TZOO surged higher after the Friday 50 day test (50.10). It has been one of the hottest stocks in the market and one that has made us money before. Want to see it move over the 18 day EMA (57.83) on continued strong volume to move into this stock that can run like the wind. Earnings are out before the open; if they are good we can expect the stock to shoot higher. We will look for the first test that holds to start positions, then see where it is in the afternoon.
Volume: 2.944M Avg Volume: 1.943M
Earnings: 10-12 before the open.
BUY POINT: $57.95 Volume=2.9M Target=$76 Stop=$56.48
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tzoo.html
Play Date: 10/11/2004
WWCA (Western Wireless--$27.70; +0.24; optionable): Wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wwca.html
After Hours: $27.73
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Very nice handle is forming to this shapely 17 week base. Strong 6 to 3 accumulation in the base shows solid buying as the stock consolidates. The base formed using the 200 day SMA (24.90), an important institutional support level; when it holds and a stock continues forming its base that is a bullish sign. Very nice base. Just waiting for volume to surge as it continues its move higher through the buy point.
Volume: 660.207K Avg Volume: 909.136K
BUY POINT: $28.06 Volume=1.4M Target=$32.48 Stop=$26.88
POSITION: WRQ BE - Feb. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wwca.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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