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us stock market, stock watch
Begin Part 4 of 5
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS REMAINING PLAYS
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TECD (Tech Data--$35.34; -2.05; optionable): Computers wholesale. Forecast to announce a split on 8-29-01 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tecd.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in March 1994. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-19-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: TECD is moving in the right side of a 12 month cup base (September highs at 55.88), and trying to make its way out of a smaller base within that pattern, which started with the high of 39.50. The stock has been moving in something of a handle but after a weak move up Thursday it dipped back Friday on increased volume (494,800; average 576,000). TECD tapped its 50 day MVA at its low of 34.99 but held on to close. The higher volume selling is not what we like, but we will see if it can hold support and manage a move back up toward the handle high of 39. A ways to go now, and if it cannot hold on the 200 day MVA awaits at 32.50, although there could be some intervening support in the 33-34 range.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move back over 37.40 on increased volume. Stop: 34.80. Breakout: 39.12 on volume of 864,000. Stop: 36.50.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (TDQ IG).
CPRT (Copart--$35.34; -0.29; optionable): Auto parts. Forecast to announce a split in August in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cprt.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-28-99 at a stock price of $41. The annual shareholder meeting was on 12-5-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CPRT had been moving in a pennant begun in late June, but has taken a significant fall out of that pattern. We looked at a put play recently, and the stock found the first level of support at 24 and turned back up. However, its move up has been very weak, finding resistance at its 10 day MVA (25.70). Friday it pulled back, but just a bit, selling on volume that continued to be low at 188,000 (average 580,000). We are still looking for the heavy selling to kick in again and drive the stock back down toward the 200 day MVA (21.70).
BUY POINT: A move below 24 on above average volume.
POSITION: September $30 puts to buy (KQJ UF).
WHR (Whirlpool--$66.63; -1.25; optionable): Consumer Durables: Appliances. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/whr.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that WHR has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-17-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: WHR broke out of a 14-month cup with handle in early July, hitting a high of 71.93 before pulling back to test the breakout, catching support at the 50 day MVA (65.93). It has been holding that support (which is also at the June highs) for the past week, unable to sustain a move over the short-term MVA's (10 day at 67.98). It has pulled back the last couple of sessions, Friday dipping back toward the 50 day but on lower, below average volume of 515,000 (average 658,000). We will see if it continues to consolidate for a run toward the breakout. The high in the handle is at 71.93. Target: 82.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 69 on above average volume. Stop: 65.50. Breakout: 72.06 on volume of 988,000. Stop: 67.50.
POSITIONS: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (WHR IM). Breakout: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (WHR IN).
DSL (Downey Financial--$57.64; +0.29; no options): Savings & Loan. Researching a possible announcement date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsl.html
STATUS: DSL is moving in an 8-month cup with handle, and fell back hard Tuesday to its 18 day MVA (then at 56, currently at 56.34). It has crept back up from that support, but the volume has been nowhere close to the selling volume we saw on Tuesday. Friday saw the stock show a loose doji over the 10 day MVA (57.35), on volume down to 130,800 (average 180,000). Looking at lest like another test of the 18 day, and we will see if it can hang on and regroup for a move on the handle high of 60.10. Not really a play now, but still a good pattern if it can show us that it can hold. Excellent relative strength.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 60.22 on volume of 270,000. Stop: 56.
POSITION: Stock only.
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$72.22; +4.41; optionable): Health services. We are working on a date for this one.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/advp.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 10-12-99 at a stock price of $50. The company does not have sufficient shares for a 2:1 split, but does have sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: ADVP has made quite a rebound from the 66 level the past two sessions, and it blasted up Friday to hit a new all-time high. It has been extraordinarily volatile the past week as it makes its way out of a jagged saucer pattern, and although it has made a new high, we are wary. Why? The stock's downside moves earlier this week showed heavier volume than its upside moves, and we have seen this type of action before preceding market troubles. That is not to say that we cannot play ADVP, and in fact the volatile movers can be some of our best plays in this market. However, we need to exercise caution and keep our stops tight, recognizing that one day's refuge can be the next day's sell-off.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move up from here up to 73.50. Stop: 69.50. Pullback: A move up after a pullback that hold the 70 level. Stop: 67.50.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (QVD IN). Pullback: Stock and/or September $65 calls to buy (QVD IM).
THC (Tenet Health Care--$54.38; -1.27; optionable): Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thc.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a stock split in September 1991 in the $45 range. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-11-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Could not hold Thursday's gain. THC fell below the 18 day MVA (54.55) Friday, but still held support at the current consolidation lows (54 range), moving on increased, but below average volume of 1.5 million, (average 1.76 million). Since breaking out in mid-July (from another lateral consolidation), the stock has generally channeled in the 56 and 54 range, and we are looking for THC to hold support here and mount the next move up. The move down on higher volume, however, was disappointing as it has rarely been below the 18 day MVA in the past three months. We are still looking for a breakout; the aggressive play remains a strong move over recent resistance at 56. Relative strength has broken out ahead of price. Target: 65.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 56 with above average volume. Stop: 54.50. Breakout: 57.12 on volume of 2.38 million. Stop: 54.50.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or November $50 calls to buy (THC KJ). Breakout: Stock and/or November $55 calls to buy (THC KK).
KRB (Mbna Corp--$35.85; -0.58; optionable): Banks. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/krb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split was on 7-14-98 at a stock price of $40. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-30-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: Showing quite a bit of volatility lately, and has dropped back again from its down trendline (connecting the September, January and May closing highs) the last few sessions. Friday it tapped just below the 50 day MVA (35.40) at its low, rebounding a bit to close. It is a tough one to read here, but we see a double top this month with peaks below the May high; not a bullish pattern. Still, this is one of the top market sectors, so for a short play, there are better places to look. For upside positions we will still need to see it move back over that resistance. Might not happen for a bit. Target if we get that move: 45.
BUY POINT: Over 37.75 on above average volume (2.5 million; Friday down to 1.95 million). Stop: 36.
POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (KRB IG).
THQI (THQ Inc.--$53.25; -1.00; optionable): Looking for the announcement, and are working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 10-26-99 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 7-23-98 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was $33. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: THQI has made an orderly retreat the last two sessions, closing with a tight doji over its 10 day MVA (tapped at its low of 52.50) on volume that continued to decrease (294,000; average 792,400). The pullback came after a strong move that saw THQI battle back, making a solid run back up from 43 after having taken a hard fall back from recent highs at 60 (all-time high at 62). Unfortunately, all the fighting back may not do THQI too much good. Volume on the recent selling was higher than when it made its new high in July. Moreover, it has broken its long term trendline, and these recent tops are failing at the bottom of that trendline. It may try a run to 60 again, but unless it attracts a lot of volume, it looks as if it has topped for now. The high this week before the pullback was 55.29.
BUY POINT: Put: If it breaks through the 50 day MVA at 51.60 on strong volume. Stop: 54.
POSITION: September $60 puts to buy (QHI UL).
BBBY (Bed Bath & Beyond--$35.85; -0.16; optionable): Retail. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbby.html
STATUS: BBBY tried to make a move back over its up trendline (connecting March and August 2000 and May 2001 levels), but after gapping up it dropped again, hitting 28.65 at its low (and our downside buy point, but volume never got close). There is a lot of resistance here, with the 10 day MVA at 29.97 and the 50 day at 30.41. We could still see the stock try to hold on and put in a bottom here, but we would need to see quite a solid move up for upside positions. In the meantime, we will see if it makes a run back down, and we can concentrate on a quick put play before we concentrate on the upside again. The target is support back the 200 day MVA, at 26.78.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move below 29 on above average selling volume.
POSITION: September $35 puts to buy (BHQ UG).
NDN (99 Cents Only Stores--$32.93; -0.91; optionable): Retail. Researching a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ndn.html
STATUS: We knew it would go one way or another out of its pennant, and Friday it took a drop back, falling through its short-term MVA's (10 day at 33.61). Volume was not that significant at 136,800 (average 204,000), and this could be shaking out the weak holders before the stock makes a move. However, the market will have to give it a chance. If we get more selling, the recent lows and 50 day MVA are at 32. If we get a decent bit of action with the retailers, we are still looking for it to come to life and make a move over recent highs in the pattern (35.20 and the all-time high of 37.55). Target on a new high: 43.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 34.45 on average or better volume. Stop: 33.20. Breakout: 35.33 on above average volume. Stop: 33.20.
POSITION: Both buy points: Stock and/or September $30 calls to buy (NDN IF).
FDC (First Data--$53.25; -0.74; optionable): Working on a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fdc.html
BACKGROUND: Last split was a 2:1 on 11-18-96 at a stock price of $80. The annual shareholder meeting was on 1-11-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FDC broke from a lengthy consolidation in July, but since has dropped back and is perhaps forming a pennant pattern. It recovered back over its 50 day and short-term MVA's the past week (50 day and 18 day at 67.4 and 68.04), but on below average volume. The stock retreated the last two sessions, but volume was even lower (765,000 Friday; average 1.48 million), and the stock held the 50 day to close. We will look for it to hold, but on giving up support it has some recent lows at 66 as additional support. Not that bad a pattern, but not very playable at the moment. We will need to see a move up that takes out some recent highs, and see some volume behind it. The pattern high (and all-time high) is at 72.25.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 69.50 on above average volume. Stop: 67.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $65 calls to buy (FDC KM).
PRE-SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS: With these stocks we keep an eye out, waiting for the start of a pre-split run.
ALLY (Alliance Gaming--$36.45; +0.62; no options): Splits 2:1 effective 8-21-01.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ally.html
STATUS: May be ready for a pullback. Friday ALLY continued its winning ways, but pulled back to close well off the intraday high (37.76), with volume slightly down but still strong at 589,700 (average 348,000). The candlestick pattern suggests a pullback as we go toward Tuesday's split. A pullback does not leave us any time for a final pre-split move, but the aggressive can watch for a continuation of this move, ready to pull out at the signs of weakness. After a $10 run into the split, that is asking a bit too much. Better profits in the pocket than profits vaporized before your eyes. Late June high: 41.
PLAY: Very aggressive: A move up from here, with stock. This would be a quick play that would not be ridden back down.
DCOM (Dime Comm. Bancshare--$42.25; +0.50; no options): S&L. Splits 3:2 effective August 22.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dcom.html
STATUS: DCOM made a strong move recently, but appears to have topped. It hit up to 42.88 Tuesday and Wednesday, and hit 43.10 Friday but again it pulled off of that high to close and then pulling back off to close. This is the third consecutive doji, and it looks like the stock will pull back, perhaps to the 10 day MVA (40.20). That does not give much of a chance at a play before Wednesday's split, but it gave us a nice run to this point. No options for a possible put after the split. No positions.
NVDA (Nvidia--$83.77; -5.80; optionable): Semiconductor. Announced a 2:1 split as forecast, effective August 28!
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
STATUS: Could not sustain Thursday's move, which had come on a relatively low volume bounce from the 50 day MVA. Up one day, tank the next. NVDA gapped down and continued to lose ground Friday, catching support at the 50 day to close at that level. That happens to coincide with the longer term up trendline; not bad support. Volume was very strong, up significantly to 6.95 million (average 4.6 million). Not a healthy sign, and with the price/volume action we have seen of late we will watch carefully for the 50 day to give way and for NVDA to provide a quick put play here. Not usually what we look for in a pre-split, but we always take what the market gives. If institutional support steps in and the 50 day holds, we still have time to get a pre-split upside play if the market gives it a chance. We will keep our eyes to the downside for the moment. Our initial target will be 75.
BUY POINT: A move below 82 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: September $90 puts to buy (RVU IR).
KMP (Kinder Morgan--$72.80; -0.95: optionable): Splits 2:1 effective September 4.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmp.html
STATUS: After all the patience waiting on the breakout, KMP then sells on heavy volume. Testing the recent breakout. Friday KMP lost some ground, selling back through the 10 day MVA (72.95; 18 day at 72.54) to close. Volume was up sharply on the move, to 153,200 (average 113,500). We don't like the strong volume, but the stock has some support here over the 18 day and recent saucer highs in the 72 range. We are carefully watching support here, as we have seen a lot of short-lived breakout attempts in this market. We still have time before the split watch for a recovery. Target: 82.
PLAY: Aggressive: After holding support here, a move back over 73.25 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or September $70 calls (KMP FN). Breakout: 74.52 on continued strong volume, with the same positions. Both stops: 71.75.
CECO (Career Education--$42.50; -0.79; no options): Announced a 2:1 stock split, with the effective date TBA.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceco.html
STATUS: CECO has been consistent in holding the 50 day MVA (59.58) as it has made its way up the past several months, and is trying to fight back yet again. Friday it pulled back again, closing just under the short-term MVA's (10 day at 61.88). However, volume was very low (109,200; average 217,000), and the stock does not appear to be in imminent danger of a free-fall. However, it is not showing a lot that would lend it to a solid upside move either, but we will watch for it to hold on gain some momentum. It has certainly showed us some solid moves in the recent past when it gets some strength behind it.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 63.50 on above average volume, with stock. Stop: 59.25.
End Part 4 of 5
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