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stock watch, stock split
Begin Part 5 of 5
CONTINUING CANDIDATES REMAINING PLAYS: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date.
ACS (ACS Inc.--$80.34; -3.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split in October 1996 at a stock price of $60. The annual shareholder meeting was on 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Gapped down Friday, but closed at its 18 day MVA on lower volume. ACS made a solid run into earnings at the end of July, but settled back to test its 50 day MVA and June high (both at 77.50). It pulled up from those levels this week, making a nice gain on increasing volume, but slowed to a doji Thursday before Friday's drop. Volume was lower on the move, however, down to 406,900 (average 520,000). Look at the pattern: it made a strong run off the 50 day MVA, but when it got to the new high, lower volume. Then it sold off on higher volume to the 50 day MVA and recovered on much lower volume. This lower high the second time around in the past has meant another test of the 50 day MVA. Not the best entry point right here. Better to wait and see if it tests the 50 day MVA again. The high is 86, and the stock is still well within split range.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 82.50 on above average volume. Stop: 79.50. Better: Let it test the 50 day MVA and the bottom channel line (77.50)
POSITION: Stock and/or October $80 calls to buy (ACS JP).
ASW (ACLN Ltd--$44.00; +6.35; no options): Former ACLNF (Shipping).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aclnf.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 8-14-00 at a stock price of $39. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: ASW has been quite a mover, running up and back with great volatility. Friday it made a huge move, blasting to a new high with huge volume (462,400; average 142,000). It closed right at its high, so the move might not be over. However, it is too far out there to chase, so we will look for some lower-volume profit-taking that will take if back to the 42 range. From there we will see if we want to catch it on another move. Our initial target was 45, and we will evaluate it again if we get the pullback.
BUY POINT: After a move back to the 42 range, a move back up on solid volume.
POSITION: Stock only.
BRL (Barr Laboratories--$85.20; +0.60; optionable): No announcement, but a bounce with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brl.html
BACKGROUND: Last announce a 3:2 split on 5-31-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $52. The annual shareholder meeting 10-26-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: BRL pulled back and tested its breakout over the June high, holding that support and is now slowly edging up along its 10 day MVA (82.62). Not the greatest pattern from which to launch a move, but we will see if can continue to hold support off of Friday's doji and perhaps pull laterally a bit, and look for a continuation of the upward momentum with some more gusto. The high (from late July) is at 90.60. Target on a breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive momentum: After a test of the 10 day, a move over 85.25 on above average volume (809,000; Friday 806,600). Stop: 81.25.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $80 calls to buy (BRL KP).
BRO (Brown & Brown--$47.17; -0.43; no options): Insurance Brokers. http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bro.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with its regularly scheduled board meeting. The stock price was $48. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-18-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: Agonizingly slow movement. BRO has pulled into another tight, lateral consolidation after having failed on its recent breakout attempt. It gave up its 18 day MVA (47.70) Thursday, and continued down Friday, but volume was very weak at 29,900 (average 50,000). There has been quite a bit of volume of late but the stock has remained in the tight pattern, but that volume could signal that a move is coming after these weak moves down. However, the move could be to either direction at this point. Good relative strength and very solid money flow. Target on a breakout: 58.
BUY POINT: Breakout: A move back over 50 on continued strong volume. Stop: 47.25. Aggressive: 48.50 on above average volume. Stop: 45.40.
POSITION: Stock only.
CBH (Commerce Bancorp--$74.25; -0.06; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cbh.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 5:4 split on 6-29-98. The stock price was $54.63. The annual shareholder meeting was on 6-20-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has insufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: CBH has dipped back to test its July breakout of a small saucer, holding those highs (at its 50 day MVA, at 73). After a strong push up from support last Friday the stock has run up against the short-term MVA's (18 day at 74.65), showing three consecutive dojis with volume dipping back considerably (87,800 Friday; average 138,000). We could see another visit to the 50 day, but it is too early to start talking about a move down and through that level. We are still going to look for a solid, strong recovery move. Target: 86.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: Over 76 on above average volume. Stop: 72.50. Breakout: 78.12 on continued strong volume. Stop: 74.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $70 calls to buy (CBH IN). Breakout: Stock and/or September $75 calls to buy (CBH IO).
CEFT (Concord EFS--$55.55; -0.69; optionable): Did not get the announcement with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ceft.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 8-26-99 at a stock price of $37. Prior to that announced a 3:2 split on 5-14-98 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting.
STATUS: After CEFT made a strong move back up from the 50 day (54.71) late last week, it pulled in to the current lateral consolidation along the short-term MVAs (18 day 55.95). Friday CEFT tested just below the 50 day and could not close back over the short-term averages, showing a doji. We are still watching for the potential of a bearish head and shoulders pattern breakdown (neckline back at the 53 range), but if it can hold the 50 day and move up from here we will see how it handles its late-July consolidation up to its high of 61.65. Good sector for now. Target on a breakout: 69-72.
BUY POINT: Momentum: Over 58.30 on above average volume. Stop: 55.50.
POSITION: September $55 calls to buy (EQF IJ).
FITB (Fifth Third Bancorp--$63.59; -0.77; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fitb.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split on 6-20-00 at a stock price of $61. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-20-01 at which time authorized shares were increased.
STATUS: FITB is just stair-stepping its way up the short-term MVAs (10 day 63.55, 18 day 63.09), moving in a gradually ascending pattern. Friday it pulled back to the 10 day, with volume on the selling creeping up over the average at 1.67 million (average 1.58 million). The 18 day has been strong support, and we will see if it continues to hold if we get some more selling. The 50 day is at 61.70, and FITB has not visited that level since mid-July. It could be due again, but we will also watch for this bank to finally get some serious volume on a move. It might not have it in it after this steady rise. Target on breakout: 75.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 64.90, on volume of 2.3 million. Stop: 62.50.
POSITION: Stock and/or November $60 calls to buy (FTQ KL).
FNM (Fannie Mae--$84.35; -0.65; optionable): Mortgage Investment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fnm.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 4:1 split in 1996, splitting at $120.
STATUS: The long handle continues, and FNM just has not been able to grab momentum and make a sustained move. If you want an indication as to how the housing market really is, this should be it. Everything looks good on the surface, but slower permitting and lower loan applications are showing up in stocks such as FNM. It pulled back again Friday off of a 'tombstone' doji, holding the 10 day MVA to close. Volume was weak at 1.76 million (average 2.98 million), so we will see if it can hold and continue to push back up toward the handle high of 87.87. We will see if continued consumer spending and the prospects of even lower interest rates can spur it on. Relative strength has broken out, and money flow is still pretty strong. Target on breakout: 100.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: A move over 86 on above average volume. Stop: 84. Breakout: 88 on volume of 4.5 million. Stop: 85.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or September $80 calls to buy (FNM IP). Breakout: Stock and/or September $85 calls to buy (FNM IQ).
FRX (Forest Labs--$78.49; +0.44; optionable): Drugs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/frx.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split on 12-18-00 with a board meeting. The stock price was $135. Prior to that announced a 2:1 split on 2-23-98 in conjunction with a board meeting. The stock price of $62. The annual shareholder meeting was 8-13-01 at which time no additional shares were be authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: FRX was in a nice, tight lateral consolidation but has shown some volatility the last week or so. It fell out of the pattern but recovering nicely from the 50 day MVA (75.14), showing some strength, but the subsequent move could not take out its July high of 82.33. It has pulled back into the range of the consolidation, gapping down slightly Friday but recovering a bit to close just under the 10 day MVA (78.55) on very low volume (667,700; average 1.35 million). If it can hold support here, it may rest a bit before attempting another move up. We are looking for a breakout, but could get another test of the 50 day first. Target: 94.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: a move over 80 on above average volume. Stop: 77.50. Breakout: 82.46, on volume of 1.8 million. Stop: 79.50.
POSITION: Aggressive: Stock and/or November $75 calls to buy (FRX KO). Breakout: Stock and/or November $80 calls to buy (FRX KP).
MIKE (Michaels Stores--$39.14; -0.21; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mike.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MIKE has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 9-13-00 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Continues to struggle with the 50 day MVA. After the recent breakout move, (out of an extended handle to a cup), MIKE gave it all back on strong selling, and it is now back in the range of its June-July consolidation, just under the 50 day (39.48). MIKE tried a move over the 50 day Friday, but pulled back to close with a tight doji on increased volume (245,900; average 230,500). We could see a move either way off of this pattern. The 18 day MVA is at 40, and the high in the pattern is at 44.69. A bit tigh tot the downside with potential support at 36.
BUY POINT: Very Aggressive (and a possible quick play): Over 40.25 on increased volume, watching 42 as possible resistance, as well as the pattern high. Stop: 39.25. POSITION: Stock and/or September $35 calls to buy (IKQ IG).
POST SPLITS REMAINING PLAYS:
COBZ (Cobiz--$15.75; +0.35; no options): Banking. Split 3:2 effective August 14.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cobz.html
STATUS: COBZ has made a nice move post-split, breaking from its pennant pattern and making new closing highs after an initial test of the pattern highs. Friday saw the stock push up again, although volume dipped way back to 6600 (average 10,500), and the stock pulled back to close off of its high of 15.95. We will look for it to pull back again and perhaps test the 15 range again (former pattern high 14.91). The high was a wild intraday spike in June up to 16.53.
PLAY: After holding 14.91 on a low-volume pullback, a move up to 15.50 on average or better volume, with stock. Stop: 14.70.
ESRX (Express Scripts--$54.01; -3.50; optionable): Split 2:1 June 25.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
STATUS: ESRX gapped down to open in the range of the pattern lows Friday, responding to news of certain securities transactions. It made a valiant push up to the short-term MVAs at its high of 55.85 (10 day at 55.83), but could not hold on, and fell back to close at recent lows at 54 (50 day MVA at 53.57). Volume was huge at 5.79 million (average 850,000), and while ESRX could bounce from this doji, we would not expect it to prevail to the upside. We will see if it can hold its recent range and the 50 day, but on a strong drop through that level we will initially target 50 on a put play. If it hangs on, it may take a week to gather itself.
PLAY: After failed bounce, a drop back through 53.50 on continued strong volume, with September $60 puts to buy (XTQ UL).
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson--$53.75; -1.14; optionable): Drugs. Split 2:1 June 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jnj.html
STATUS: JNJ made a nice breakout move last week, but after a doji Wednesday, it is selling as hard as it ran up. Volume was up to 13.24 million Friday (average 6.5 million), eclipsing the volume we saw on the breakout. The best thing to be said is that the stock tapped at its 50 day MVA at its low of 53.05, and was able to pull up a bit to close. However, this has been a strong drop, and we will watch carefully at how the 50 day holds, and potential support from July lows at 52. We will see if the stock can hold support, but we are not looking at plays for now as we hate the high volume reversals off of a high.
LH (Laboratory Corp--$81.65; +1.07; optionable): Health Services. Split 2:1 June 11.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lh.html
STATUS: LH is now struggling to hold onto its 50 day MVA (80.90), gapping below it Friday but managing to close back over that level. Volume continued to be rather weak, coming in lower at 182,100 (average 548,000), and the stock pulled back to close after tapping the 10 day MVA at its high of 82.30. The stock is in something in a handle to a cup pattern extending back to the beginning of the year, and arrived in its current consolidation after an abrupt pullback from its recent high of 91.35. We will see if it can continue to hang on, but it is looking weak. For now we are looking to the downside, as from it looks like a move of 85 is necessary before venturing into upside positions. The initial target is the 200 day MVA at 73, with some possible support from June lows at 75.
PLAY: On a drop below 78.50 on volume of 500,000 or better, September $85 puts to buy (LH UQ).
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock watch
stock split
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