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world stock market, us stock market
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10/13/04 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts issued Wednesday: AIRT
Buy alerts issued: HURC; BYD; UPCS
Trailing stop alerts: DO; GRA
Stop alerts: PAAS; NVTL; GW; LPX
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdly.htm
SUMMARY:
- Stocks start higher but reverse on volume once more.
- Oil continues to rise but other commodities sink on slowdown fears.
- Intraday volatility rising as stocks trade in a narrow range.
- Earnings season off to rocky start as indexes try to hold next support levels.
Modest earnings try to start a rebound but fail 5 minutes into the session.
Oil was lower, INTC's chip inventory looked stable, and more companies are advertising on the internet. What more could you ask for? For investors, apparently a lot more. After gapping higher stocks spent the next 4.5 hours giving the gap back and also some important support (SP500 fell back through the 200 day SMA and the 50 day EMA).
The early move higher was not broad. It was led by semiconductors and technology. The other large caps (e.g. financials) and small caps struggled from the open. Indeed, the rally had a big hole in it as the commodities and commodity related stocks were hammered. They were not pulling back to take a breather; they were being sold hard and on high volume, gapping lower and never really trying to come back from that early machine gun barrage. The tech rally on rather flimsy numbers did not hold for long (a matter of minutes) before they too started to sell after the eager buyers and nervous shorts did their work.
The commodities sold on high volume as money definitely moved elsewhere. We say elsewhere; it really went into cash because most everything moved lower with no sectors showing any real accumulation. Volume was up in the commodities and related stocks, and it was up in the overall market as well. Stocks sold, broke sharply lower right after lunch, then wandered aimlessly into the close, unable to mount any comeback of note.
Once more stocks have reversed from a solid move, and it is happening in both directions. They reversed from a good upside move in September, selling sharply in price on some rising volume. A week to the downside and then a sharp upside reversal on strong volume off the 50 day EMA. The Wednesday selling was a continuation of the most recent reversal that started last week. It was, however, the second distribution session on SP500 during this particular round.
While stocks suffer sharp jolts up and down, accumulation and distribution are constants in measuring the market's moves. Since mid-September, SP500 accumulation/distribution stands at 5/5. On NASDAQ it is a much stronger 7/2. When dealing with institutional selling, however, it is the weak link that you have to be concerned with. With 2 distribution session in the last 4 and heading back for another test of the 50 day SMA, SP500 is the focus. Wednesday was an ugly session, but SP500 has not taken out that support that held on the last selling round. With the volatile swings within this relatively narrow range, it could easily hold that level and rebound right back up.
THE ECONOMY
Oil starting to wear down economic activity?
Higher oil prices have thus far failed to stall out the US consumer. Indeed, as we are seeing in the weekly sales reports, consumption is actually picking up. Small business enthusiasm continues to rise and they anticipate strong capital investment heading into the end of the year. Sounds pretty good even with oil prices above $40/bbl and now $50/bbl for a few months.
As for the bigger picture, however, copper consumption, despite the supposedly strong world economy, is slipping. It fell 3.3% worldwide in July. Chinese copper usage fell 21% that month. Copper is deemed an economic canary because it is a basic commodity used in so many industrial applications, e.g. wire. When there is uncertainty about an economic recovery, look at copper prices and stocks.
Copper prices fell 10% Wednesday, but it was on the news that China's and the world's usage was down. In other words, price was not acting as an indicator, but reacted to news that usage was lower. Typically the price is the indicator of usage; it forecasts as opposed to reacting. It was not showing a decline in demand nor were copper stocks before this news. Thus we are somewhat skeptical of this announcement. It definitely has a short term impact on prices, but demand, not headlines, ultimately determines price. Thus we would not be very surprised to see this sharp pullback end up being just that. For the continued expansion of the global economy, that is definitely what we want.
If copper prices are truly starting to soften, however, what is the cause? China has said it was going to slow its economy, but it has not had a lot of success thus far. That is not surprising when you look at the historical data when governments try to control their economies. Much as with training a puppy, you say 'no' a dozen times with rate hikes and the puppy does nothing. Then the central bank takes out a rolled newspaper and knocks the crap out of the economy. It then goes into the corner and sulks, and that shuts things down almost immediately.
In addition to the Chinese government trying to artificially slow its economy, there is also the rising oil price. When oil gets high enough, money that would go into development has to fund more and more of the energy cost. At some point it is not economically feasible and the project is shut down. Perhaps oil is reaching a stage where some of this is occurring in China. It is very early in the process, but we do know that Chinese oil imports rose 47% in July. That higher price is going to pinch more and more as more oil is imported.
THE MARKET
A gap higher and then a reversal on rising volume is never positive upside action, particularly if some key support is broken. Stocks were set to try the next rebound after selling last Thursday and Friday. The gap higher was used to sell into, and though the selling abated in the last two hours, stocks could not mount a rebound.
This reversal was just the last in a volatile 6 weeks where the indexes have ricocheted in a relatively narrow range. Stocks have surged on rising volume and they have sold on rising volume. There is definitely turmoil, definitely a battle ongoing between buyers and sellers with volume surging after lying dormant through the summer. SP500 distribution sessions are a red flag, but we also note that leadership has been overall sold. Wednesday saw some leadership groups in commodities and related areas take a beating on volume. Others held up very well (e.g. internets). Leadership is always the key to any move, and thus far overall leadership is holding the line. The failure of the oil and gas, steel, copper and other commodity and related stocks, however, along with the rise in overall volume, is definitely a blow to the rally attempt.
Market Sentiment
VIX: 15.42; +0.37. Volatility is creeping back up, but it is just creeping, not yet passing the September high at 16.
VXN: 22.13; +1.2
VXO: 16.25; +1.08
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.07. Second consecutive close at or above 1.0. This is a contrary indicator, and when enough closes over 1.0 pile up that often indicates an upside move. With the other indicators such as volatility and bulls versus bears still far from extreme levels, however, a series of closes over 1.0 has only led to modest upside moves when they have occurred this year.
NASDAQ
Gapped higher on earnings hopes, but that turned out to be a lot of short covering as the index reversed and sold on volume. It held up the best, however, managing to hold at the 18 day EMA by the close.
Stats: -4.64 points (-0.24%) to close at 1920.53
Volume: 1.799B (+18.11%). Big volume surge as shorts covered early and sellers then jumped on stocks and sold them off. Only the first distribution session on NASDAQ for the month.
Up Volume: 901M (+279M)
Down Volume: 821M (-36M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.57 to 1. Strength in semiconductors and internets kept downside breadth under control.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.33 to 1
New Highs: 104 (+28). New highs rose despite the selling. Not that vicious a day judging from the internal indicators.
New Lows: 52 (-3)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
Gapped to some resistance at 1950ish and that was as far as it was going. NASDAQ spent the remainder of the session selling back though it managed to hold the line at the 18 day EMA (1917) after slightly undercutting that level intraday. Volume surged on the reversal; sellers came in hard after the upside open prompted by some so-so earnings from Intel. Unlike its counterparts, NASDAQ was able to hold its near support level on the close (18 day EMA and the September consolidation range). It is in position to hold the line and rebound, but with the other indexes sagging below support, NASDAQ is going to have to be a real leader to do so.
NASDAQ 100 gapped over the 200 day SMA but could not hold the move. It too managed to hold above the 18 day EMA on the close. QQQ volume was the strongest since early August.
SOX was the lone winner Wednesday, but it was unable to hold a move over the 50 day EMA (394.57) as it rolled over after hitting resistance at its intraday high at 400. Still below the late September and early October highs.
S&P 500/NYSE
The large caps had a tough time, unable to hold the 200 day SMA or the 50 day EMA as volume spiked on the selling.
Stats: -8.19 points (-0.73%) to close at 1113.65
NYSE Volume: 1.546B (+17.09%). Highest volume since the last session of September when Q3 ended. You have to go back to July before that session to find comparable trade. Definitely selling ongoing as the large cap oil and gas and commodity stocks took a solid beating. Two distribution sessions in the past four. Another one and SP500 most likely undercuts the 50 day SMA and is in serious trouble.
Up Volume: 391M (-46M)
Down Volume: 1.14B (+268M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.06 to 1. The selling in both small and large caps pushed most stocks lower.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.12 to 1
New Highs: 105 (+14)
New Lows: 43 (+4)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^spx.html
SP500 tried to build upon the nice Tuesday reversal and doji, gapping higher at the open. As with NASDAQ, that was all she wrote, however, as it rolled over, cut through the 200 day SMA (1120) and the 50 day EMA (1115). It did manage to hold easily above the 50 day SMA (1107) and recover late toward the other 50 day. Minor victory. It was not a positive session, and about all SP500 can do at this point is test and hold the 50 day SMA, making a modestly higher low as it rebounds from that level.
After a nice doji at the 18 day EMA Tuesday, SP600 folded and closed well below that level, posting the largest loss of the major indexes. It has the 50 day EMA (286.95) as its next potential support level where it found traction in late September.
DJ30
The blue chips continue their fade lower, tapping the February/April down trendline on the low (9957) and rebounding to hold 10,000. Volume surged on the distribution. This is where DJ30 held in late September, and where it needs to hold here or it is back to 9900 or the August low at 9800.
Stats: -74.85 points (-0.74%) to close at 10002.33
Volume: 276 million shares Wednesday versus 215 million shares Tuesday.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
THURSDAY
The trade numbers are out before the open, but the focus now is on earnings (and the ever present oil watch). After hours we saw the divergence in where the money is flowing. AAPL blew away its number on strong iPod sales. SNDK (storage devices) warned for the future and was slaughtered. NVLS reported lackluster results and it was down as well.
Which will prevail? Looking at QQQ after hours, after a modest early spike it railed off and was trading lower. Thursday is setting up for another fight between the bulls and the bears, both hitting the market with more strength than in August and early September when the bears hibernated and the market was able to rally on low volume. Now they are fighting for control heading into year end. The major indexes are still in position to make higher lows and continue the move higher, but they certainly did not show that inclination Wednesday.
The key test for this current move lower now shifts to the 50 day SMA for SP500 and the 50 day EMA for NASDAQ. NASDAQ has the leadership potential given its solid accumulation, but it cannot do it without SP500. The latter has those recent distribution sessions as a concern; if the commodities and related stocks suffered just a short and sharp pullback, it will be ready to rebound after a test lower toward the 50 day SMA.
We are looking for that test and anticipate it will hold for another rebound. We are looking at leadership stocks that have pulled back but have not broken near support; those are the stronger stocks and when unleashed will rebound the best.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1920.53
Resistance:
October gap up point at 1952.
The 200 day SMA at 1964
January/late June down trendline at 1970
Price resistance at 2050
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 1115
The 18 day EMA at 1917
The low of the September range at 1900
September gap up point at 1894
The 50 day EMA at 1898
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1887
S&P 500: Closed at 1113.65
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 1120
1125 to 1130 is prior price resistance, and 1128 is the September closing high.
The March/June down trendline at 1128
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
The 50 day SMA at 1107
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1064 (August low).
Dow: Closed at 10,002.33
Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 10,118
The 50 day EMA at 10,145
The February/June 2004 down trendline at 10,247
The 200 day SMA at 10,293
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
9980 to 10,000 held again on Wednesday.
9900 is some support from the May and July lows.
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 14
Trade Balance, August (8:30): -$51.4B expected and -$50.1B prior
Export Prices ex-agriculture., September (8:30): 0.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.4% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 10/09 (8:30): 340K expected and 335K prior
October 15
Business Inventories, August (8:30): 0.6% expected and 0.9% prior
PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected and -0.1% prior
Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior
NY Empire State Index, October (8:30): 25.0 expected and 28.3
Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.7% expected and -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.3% expected and 0.2% prior
Industrial Production, September (9:15): 0.3% expected and 0.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, September (9:15): 77.5% expected and 77.3% prior
Michigan Sentiment-Preliminary., October (9:45): 94.0 expected and 94.2 prior
Treasury Budget, September (2:00): $22.0B expected and $26.3B prior
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: AIRT; BYD; ENER; HURC; UPCS; WMGI
Tuesday night play results:
HURC: Strong volume as it continues the move off the 18 day EMA.
MFE: Still testing the 18 day EMA in the breakout test.
UPCS: Nice volume as it continues the breakout move.
WIND: Testing the breakout, holding the 18 day EMA.
New plays for Thursday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/13/2004
ALDN (Aladdin Knowledge System--$24.20; -0.08; no options): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aldn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. ALDN is moving laterally over the 10 day EMA (23.75) on low, below average volume as it sets up for the breakout from its 18 week base. It formed over the 200 day SMA (18.29), a good sign of institutional support. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume) in the base shows strong buying. It has been ignoring the rest of the market, forming its pattern as it has sold back the past week. Just being patient and waiting for the breakout move.
Volume: 134.204K Avg Volume: 304.909K
BUY POINT: $25.55 Volume=457K Target=$30.68 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/aldn.html
Play Date: 10/13/2004
ALVR (Alvarion--$14.98; +1.47; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alvr.html
After Hours: $14.86
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Making a high volume breakout from its 30 week base, showing excellent action in a market that reversed its course intraday. Strong 8 to 4 volume in the base sets a strong foundation for a breakout run, showing 2 to 1 buyers accumulating shares. Very nice base and a solid breakaway move. Looking to start positions on a continuation of this move and then on a successful test we will add more positions.
Volume: 3.987M Avg Volume: 650.818K
BUY POINT: $15.12 Volume=750K Target=$18.15 Stop=$14.25
POSITION: QBY CC - Mar. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/alvr.html
Play Date: 10/13/2004
CVNS (Covansys--$11.99; +0.19; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvns.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CVNS is working on a two week handle to its 23 week pattern sporting strong 6 to 2 accumulation. Money flow is surging ahead of price even as it works laterally over the 18 day EMA (11.51) on very low volume. Lots of upside room here to breakout and give us a good gain without even having to take out the April high where the base started.
Volume: 62.434K Avg Volume: 94.909K
BUY POINT: $12.12 Volume=142K Target=$14.75 Stop=$11.38
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cvns.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Gapped down and tested the 50 day EMA, holding it on the low.
EBAY: Gapped higher on the solid YHOO earnings.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
BCON: Moving in an 8 month cup base. It has started to come to life in September, rallying through the 200 day SMA (0.72) Tuesday on strong volume. Wednesday it tested back to that level on lower volume. Good price/volume action as it starts setting up the right side of the base.
PARL: Nice breakout from a 7 month base. In the recent selling it has started moving laterally as the 10 day EMA rises to meet it. That often sends it off on its next leg higher in the breakout.
ASVI: Trying to make a breakaway move from its 9 month cup with handle base. Volume has surged the past two weeks. A move over 40 could do it.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AAPL 09/14 Test BO 39.75 +1.46 36.32 42 20M 8.5M 38.88
Trailing Stop. Reported huge earnings after hours and was up $3 from the close. It shook us out earlier in the session after
it gapped higher & started to sell back & we did not
want a pre-earnings sell off. Obviously it did not.
AH 09/08 DB hdl 41.33 -1.22 38.89 44.12 618K 1M 41.21
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed holding above the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. May test back to 40.79 (18 day MVA)
AIRT 10/05 Test BO 32 +3.07 26.42 32 7.2M 2.2M 30.97
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table as stock gapped up and continued to soar for a great move on stronger above average volume.
AKAM 10/05 Cup 15.44 +0.1 15.63 18.55 2.3M 3.7M 14.94
Current. Gapped up at the open, but then gave some of it back on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape.
AKS 09/22 Cup hdl 9.4 -0.79 7.85 9.38 4.8M 1.9M 9.97
Current. Pullback tapping 8.64 at the low and made a fierce rally on very strong volume surge. Showing strength in coming off the day's low.
AMT 09/30 Flat 16.2 -0.23 15.55 18.68 2.6M 1.8M 15.97
Current. Gapped up at the open, but then gave it back on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in good shape.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 9.35 +0.1 8.91 10.72 3.4M 1.6M 8.48
Current. Continue with uptrend showing a doji on very strong volume surge. Came off the day's high of 9.60.
AVN 10/07 FlyPlat 3.15 +0.07 3.22 4.14 770K 1M 2.99
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Some resistance at 3.20
BEV 10/11 Cup hdl 7.78 -0.17 8.29 10 798K 1.1M 7.79
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down holding at some support, but below the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Needs to hold here or will drop.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 28.85 +0.82 28.79 33.54 652K 400K 28.05
Entered today. Kept an eye on this one and it blasted higher Wednesday, clearing a 6 week sideways move at 28.
CRZO 10/09 Cup hdl 9.73 -0.37 10.22 12.45 179K 262K 9.63
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding just below the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. May test back to the 18 day MVA (9.59)
CVS 10/02 Cup hdl 42.74 +0.45 43.58 49.58 1.7M 2.5M 42.48
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 43.18. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
CYTC 10/04 Flat 25.52 -0.89 25.05 29.58 1.1M 1.7M 25.34
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 25.23.
DO 08/31 Cup hdl 32.34 -0.09 25.48 29 2.1M 1.3M 33.05
Trailing Stop. Continue to move down holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
DOVP 09/30 Cup hdl 17.25 -0.02 17.04 19.95 105K 447K 17.12
Current. Making a lateral move just above the 10 day MVA on low volume.
DRIV 10/09 Cup hdl 29.44 -0.58 30.12 35 366K 1.1M 29.05
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. May test back to support 29.05.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 94.56 +1.07 88.05 99.94 10M 14M 93.25
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave some of it back on stronger above average volume. Still in uptrend.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 94.56 +1.07 71.78 82.25 10M 10M 92.48
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 94.56 +1.07 34.72 46 10M 12M 89.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 94.56 +1.07 31.22 46 10M 12M 89.55
Current.
ELGX 08/26 Cup hdl 6.65 0 6.54 7.84 37K 120K 6.48
Current. Making a lateral move on very low volume.
ENER 10/11 Cup hdl 18.4 +2.27 16.08 19 1.3M 200K 14.97
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued with explosive move on very strong volume surge.
FFIV 10/02 Cup hdl 32.09 +0.28 32.85 38 748K 1.4M 31.88
Current. Tapped 31.37 at the low and rallied back showing a tight doji on rising, but average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
GRA 09/27 FlyPlat 9.68 -0.51 9.77 11.66 1.3M 1.5M 9.81
Trailing Stop. Pullback on holding the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume.
GW 09/25 Rv H&S 4.95 -0.09 4.84 6.22 2.7M 1.2M 4.87
Exited. Pullback tapping 4.61 at the low and made a fierce rally holding the 10 day MVA. The big drop shook up out.
HURC 10/12 Test BO 15.76 +0.56 15.76 19 341K 150K 14.66
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
LPX 10/04 DB hdl 26.56 -1.43 27.51 31.75 1.7M 1.2M 26.62
Exited. Gapped up at the open, but tanked holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
MFE 10/12 Test BO 20.46 -0.04 20.78 24.42 934K 1.8M 20.32
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 20.93 at the day's high, but gave it back holding the 18 day MVA on very low volume. Did not enter the play, because stock spent day's coming off the high on low volume.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 14.62 +0.13 15.25 19 438K 1M 14.68
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave back most of the move on lower, below average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
MSSN 09/15 Cup hdl 5.75 -0.6 6.56 7.92 905K 538K 6.19
Tanked on strong volume surge holding below the 50 day MVA.
NVTL 09/25 Asc Tri 22.39 -0.17 24.62 29.38 1.4M 1.8M 24.12
Exited. Tapped 23.41 at the day's high, but then gave it all back on average volume holding just above the 50 day MVA.
PAAS 10/05 Cup 16.14 -0.4 17.48 20.98 1.6M 1.1M 16.47
Exited. Gapped down to open below the 18 day MVA showing a doji on strong volume surge. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. Will keep our eye on it so see if there is a possible play.
PDC 09/30 Test BO 7.93 -0.43 8.72 10.25 122K 293K 8.18
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 7.63 at the intraday low and rallied back holding just above the simple 50 day MVA. Stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop.
PMTC 10/04 BO 5.49 +0.02 5.66 6.88 2M 1.3M 5.28
Current. Volatile session testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 41.55 +0.01 38.82 45 11M 11M 38.88
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Still in uptrend.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 41.55 +0.01 35.42 40.48 11M 11M 38.88
Current.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 7.48 -0.61 5.88 7 2.6M 635K 7.44
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on stronger above average volume holding at some support above the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 33.64 +0.83 31.32 36.85 1.6M 1.2M 31.78
Current. Gapped up at the open showing a tight doji and filled in the gap intraday on lower, but still strong volume. Continue with uptrend.
SWKS 10/02 Test 20 10.27 +0.16 10.55 12.78 6.4M 4.9M 9.98
Current. Gapped up at theopen showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern. Still in good shape.
TV 08/10 Cup hdl 54.01 -0.71 47.48 53.88 290K 561K 53.88
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday on lower, below average volume holding at some support. Looking good.
TWTI 09/30 Test BO 7.62 +0.09 6.97 8.32 225K 236K 7.17
Current. Tapped 7.30 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a doji on average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
UPCS 10/12 Flat 4.77 +0.16 4.82 5.99 1M 600K 4.49
Entered today. Explosive move on very strong volume surge.
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 20.84 +0.1 20.44 24.44 3.9M 2.6M 20.25
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back testing the 10 day MVA intraday on stronger above average volume. Some resistance at 21.
VWPT 10/09 Cup hdl 2.78 -0.1 3.11 3.89 471K 683K 2.89
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 2.98 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Still in the pattern.
WIND 09/30 DB hdl 12.36 -0.34 12.16 14.48 570K 973K 12.45
Current. Tapped 13 at the high, but gave it back testing the 18 day MVA intraday. Testing the breakout.
WWCA 10/11 Cup hdl 27.89 +0.34 28.06 32.48 1.5M 1.4M 26.88
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session tapping 28.92 at the high, but gave much of it back on stronger above average volume. Did not enter the play because stock spent much of the session coming off day's high.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 25.29 -0.12 26.95 32 436K 525K 25.74
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but then reversed on much stronger, below average volume holding just under the 18 day MVA. Needs to hold here or will drop.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
ACDO 09/30 Put 23.37 -0.28 23.55 21.55 214K 1.1M 23.52
Current. Gapped up at the open, but then rolled over for a nice move down the 10 day MVA on low volume.
PTEK 09/27 Put 8.8 -0.1 8.71 7.38 435K 825K 9.02
Buy Not Issued. Moving down the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Broke through some resistance at 18 day MVA.
WMGI 09/27 Put 23.06 -0.64 25.22 23.68 424K 525K 24.37
Nice move down the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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