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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AH; AKS; APCS; BYD; CYTC; SBAC; TWTI; VRSN
Thursday night play results:
ASKJ: Tested the 10 day EMA again in the handle.
FCEL: Testing the 200 day SMA breakout.
MRVC: Gapped higher and moved up again on strong trade.
PER: Started up off the 18 day EMA, but no volume yet.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/16/2004
CDIS (Cal Dive--$36.08; +0.23; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
After Hours: $36.02
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Energy stocks came under pressure the past week, sending many reeling lower. CDIS sold back, but it was not one of those careening lower on high volume. It fell back to the 18 day EMA (35.62) on Wednesday, held its ground on Thursday with some solid volume, and closed out he week still holding that level as volume backed off. CDIS broke out from an 8 week base in early September and ran to 38.75 on the first breakout run. Stocks typically use the 18 day EMA as support for a test of the breakout move, exactly what CDIS appears to be doing here. Indeed, money flow is still strong and has started to turn higher ahead of the price. We expect CDIS to follow it higher.
Volume: 246.619K Avg Volume: 426.681K
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=640K Target=$42.65 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: KPQ CG - Mar. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cdis.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
CREE (Cree, Inc.--$28.78; +0.44; optionable): Semiconductor equipment and research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cree.html
After Hours: $28.76
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CREE made us some excellent profit on its September breakout and run as it exploded out of an 8 month cup with handle base. It peaked near 33 and has spent October testing the move, coming back to the 50 day MA this past week. Friday it tapped the 50 day SMA (26.82) on the low and then rebounded on the strongest volume in 3 months to post a nice gain. That shows us a lot of big money moving in at that important support level to pick up this stock. Money flow remains strong, and we are looking for a move through the 10 day EMA (29.58) on continued strong volume to move back in and catch the next phase of the breakout run.
Volume: 6.95M Avg Volume: 2.512M
BUY POINT: $29.64 Volume=3.8M Target=$34 Stop=$27.88
POSITION: CQR AF - Jan. $30c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cree.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
NEW (New Century Financial--$56.88; +0.38; optionable): Mortgage investment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/new.html
After Hours: $56.85
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. NEW made us some great money on the Stock Splits Report on its August to September breakout and run from its 6 month cup with handle base. It peaked at 63 in late September, and is now testing the breakout move, coming back on low volume to test the 50 day EMA (55.70). Even as it has made this pullback, money flow has remained strong. A leader that has merely tested its breakout as the rest of the market sold off. Looking for volume to surge back up as it moves through the 18 day EMA (58.27).
Volume: 802.3K Avg Volume: 1.146M
BUY POINT: $58.35 Volume=1.4M Target=$68.38 Stop=$56.75
POSITION: NEW BL - Feb. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/new.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
RSTI (Rofin-Sinar Tech--$30.11; +0.86; optionable): Lasers for various applications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rsti.html
After Hours: $30.06
STATUS: Cup w/handle. RSTI is moving laterally and lower on very low, below average volume as it forms the handle to its 9 month base. Strong 7 to 4 accumulation in the base (7 up price weeks on rising volume to 4 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers moving into the stock. Outstanding money flow continues to run higher ahead of price even as the stock makes this low volume pullback. The handle is holding above the 200 day SMA (28.32) on this test, a key support level it broke on strong volume to start the month. Setting up for the breakout and run.
Volume: 63.907K Avg Volume: 131.772K
BUY POINT: $31.02 Volume=200K Target=$37.75 Stop=$29.78
POSITION: QRT CF - Mar. $30c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rsti.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$10.93; +0.29; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Thursday and Friday as TEO jumped off of the 18 day EMA (10.60), the level acting as support in the handle to its 30 week base. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the base has set the stock up for a nice breakout move. Volume is surging as it starts the move off of the bottom of the handle as TEO starts to follow the money flow higher. In addition, relative strength broke out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication that the stock price is going to follow.
Volume: 361.7K Avg Volume: 165.863K
BUY POINT: $11.12 Volume=285K Target=$13.38 Stop=$10.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/teo.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
TV (Grupo Televisa--$53.3; +0.02; optionable): Spanish broadcast television
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tv.html
STATUS: 18 day EMA test. TV is making its second test of the breakout from its 22 week base formed from April to September. It broke out on strong volume and rallied to 55.39 on the run. It is now coming back for its first test of the 18 day EMA (52.90; it tested the 10 day EMA, 53.64, on the first test.). Very solid price/volume action in the pullback with up sessions on rising volume and lower volume on down sessions. Money flow remains strong, holding easily ahead of the price even as the stock makes this test. The 18 day EMA is a logical point to hold on a breakout test, and we are looking for volume to rebound as the stock makes the rebound off of this support. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces off the short term MA (10 or 18 day EMA) after the breakout, and that leaves TV with plenty of upside on this breakout move.
Volume: 230.4K Avg Volume: 380K
BUY POINT: $53.78 Volume=570K Target=$61 Stop=$52.78
POSITION: TV DJ - Apr. $50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tv.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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