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stock ticker, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AH; AKS; BYD, CYTC; PMTC; SBAC; TWTI; VRSN
Thursday night play results:
IDNX: Held steady on lower volume Friday. Still poised for the breakout.
MRVC: Gapped higher and moved up again on strong trade.
PER: Started up off the 18 day EMA, but no volume yet.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/16/2004
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$29.89; +1.29; no options): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume surged Friday as ODFL moved toward the breakout from its 16 week flat base that formed along the 50 day EMA (28.41). The 50 day EMA is a key level because it is where institutions step in to support a stock if they are so inclined. Trucking came under pressure last week as all of the recent leaders (metals, oil and gas, shipping) were sold. ODFL checked up at the 50 day EMA and surged as volume came back in and pushed it right to the breakout point. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, and sets up the breakout.
Volume: 380.255K Avg Volume: 159K
BUY POINT: $30.28 Volume=250K Target=$36 Stop=$28.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/odfl.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$26.38; -0.52; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A top rated stock in terms of earnings and sales. SAY is working laterally the past week after a strong surge Monday and Tuesday on solid trade. You could argue that those moves were the breakout from its 9.5 month base sporting solid 9 to 7 accumulation. It has formed a nice, quiet base with excellent price/volume action: volume dried up well below average in June, July and August, then swelled as the stock moved higher in September and October as it rallied to start forming the right side of the base. It dipped lower to end the week, tapping the 10 day EMA (25.64) on the intraday low as volume faded. Preparing for the next move higher, and it only has to make it to the prior high to give us a nice gain.
Volume: 273.5K Avg Volume: 288.772K
BUY POINT: $27.78 Volume=450K Target=$34 Stop=$26.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/say.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$10.93; +0.29; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Thursday and Friday as TEO jumped off of the 18 day EMA (10.60), the level acting as support in the handle to its 30 week base. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the base has set the stock up for a nice breakout move. Volume is surging as it starts the move off of the bottom of the handle as TEO starts to follow the money flow higher. In addition, relative strength broke out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication that the stock price is going to follow.
Volume: 361.7K Avg Volume: 165.863K
BUY POINT: $11.12 Volume=285K Target=$13.38 Stop=$10.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/teo.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
TV (Grupo Televisa--$53.3; +0.02; optionable): Spanish broadcast television
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tv.html
STATUS: 18 day EMA test. TV is making its second test of the breakout from its 22 week base formed from April to September. It broke out on strong volume and rallied to 55.39 on the run. It is now coming back for its first test of the 18 day EMA (52.90; it tested the 10 day EMA, 53.64, on the first test.). Very solid price/volume action in the pullback with up sessions on rising volume and lower volume on down sessions. Money flow remains strong, holding easily ahead of the price even as the stock makes this test. The 18 day EMA is a logical point to hold on a breakout test, and we are looking for volume to rebound as the stock makes the rebound off of this support. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces off the short term MA (10 or 18 day EMA) after the breakout, and that leaves TV with plenty of upside on this breakout move.
Volume: 230.4K Avg Volume: 380K
BUY POINT: $53.78 Volume=570K Target=$61 Stop=$52.78
POSITION: TV DJ - Apr. $50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tv.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
HDWR: Holding over the 50 day EMA on low volume. Setting up nicely for the next move.
MSFT: Forming a handle after the early October move off the 200 day SMA consolidation.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
SLM: Moving laterally over the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume following a strong breakout in September. It is not giving up its gains, a sign of strength.
RNOW: A new issue in August, RNOW gapped higher in early October. It has moved laterally the past three weeks, holding the 10 day EMA on low volume. Looks ready to continue its run.
Downside:
FLML: Has rallied back up to the 50 day SMA after a nasty gap lower in mid-September. Spent two weeks trying to break through but turned lower Friday on rising volume.
RI: After a nasty gap lower to start the month, RI has rebounded to the 10 day EMA on lower and lower volume. Looks to have run out of gas on the rebound.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock ticker
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