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world stock market, us stock market
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10/16/04 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts issued Friday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: MRVC
Trailing stop alerts: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
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SUMMARY:
- Market limps home with small Friday gain, small consolation prize after the selling.
- Economic data overload, but data showing Q3 stronger than Q2.
- Friday fails to change market complexion.
- Early results disappointing, but the torrent starts this week.
Slight rebound in a volatile expiration Friday.
SP500 and NASDAQ held near support after a week of selling, managing a modest rebound and a positive close, but that is about all you can say for the session. Stocks closed well off their highs and there were few breakouts even though volume surged. That volume surge was due to the October expiration, so no grand conclusions about the return of buyers can be made.
Investors were deluged with economic, earnings, and political data, and stocks did the ping pong bounce all session. Retail sales better than expected, PPI core a bit hotter, industrial production lower, Michigan sentiment (preliminary) cooler, but Greenspan saying oil is not going to be a problem. Volatility associated with expiration is expected, but each piece of economic data exacerbated the moves. SP500 managed to hold above the September lows, what it needed to do to stay alive, but hardly a strong endorsement for a rebound. Once again NASDAQ, with some potential small cap help, has to provide the leadership.
THE ECONOMY
Economic expansion may be slowing and there are headwinds, but this is not a weak economy.
Not since 1991 has the US economy been so maligned. What was grossly exaggerated as the worst recession since the Great Depression was just about the mildest. Indeed, the economy grew at 4% in Q4 1991 and was already well on the road to recovery earlier that year as the bogus claims were made. Ah the fog of election years.
The fog is equally as thick this time around. The recession of 2000 to 2002 hardly received a peep because there was no election ongoing. Now that it is an election year the economy is once more being compared to all-time slumps. Never mind the best growth rates in 20 years in 2003 as the investment incentives kicked in as they did in the early 1980's and the continued expansion, though at a slower pace, in 2004 (3.2% Q2 GDP isn't chopped liver, and Q3 is going to be closer to 5% than it is to 3%). There is still a dearth of conventional jobs and large, mature companies are still announcing layoffs as the fundamentals of the economy undergo another 20 year cycle change. These changes always generate fear about the unknown future, and it plays into politics.
We hear a lot about a horrible economy, once again the worst in decades. It is not perfect by any stretch, but it is still in recovery from a stock market crash, a quick plunge from 7+% GDP growth to negative, 9-11, Afghanistan war, corporate scandal, Iraq war, and the cost of security. Considering all of the obstacles the recovery is well heeled at this stage. Indeed, the economic data to this point this year is better across the board (yes, including job creation) versus 1996 when President Clinton was up for reelection. Somehow those numbers were good enough for economists to push for his reelection, but these better numbers are a "disaster for the American worker." Again, Q3 GDP numbers are going to surprise to the upside. Oil will play an increasing role moving ahead, and will even work to reduce the GDP gains as it is a rising import cost. It remains a major factor in continued economic recovery despite Greenspan's sanguine words Friday. For now the economy is still expanding and solid overall, but it does have those headwinds in front of it.
The good news: Retail sales surprise upside on strongest auto sales in 3 years.
September sales rose 1.5% overall, boosted by strong autos. That is the best gain since the March 2.1% jump. Ex-autos sales rose 0.6%, the strongest since a 0.9% gain in May. Recall that much was made of August's drop in auto sales (retail sales -0.2% with autos but +0.2% without) as some sort of sign that the consumer had dropped off. As we noted then, for the past two years auto sales have alternated jumping and tanking from month to month as consumers alternate what they are buying and also wait for incentives. The constant is that consumers remain strong as they have done all through the recession. They were strong when several trillion were lost in the stock market crash, and now that personal wealth is back to levels pre-crash, there is even less reason to stop consuming now.
Despite the woes of this supposed horrid economy, personal income is rising. Average hourly earnings are up 3.1% annually through September. Personal income (wages, salaries, rents, interest, dividends and social security payments) the past year is growing at a 5% clip. That is how the 'surprising consumer' as some put it continues to consume despite all they have been through and despite debt levels. Moreover, history tells us that as long as sentiment remains above certain low levels, there is little worry about consumers going into hibernation to the extent to cause an economic downturn.
Michigan preliminary sentiment drops.
There was a lot of worry Friday over the drop in the preliminary Michigan sentiment survey (87.5 actual, 94.0 expected). First, the preliminary Michigan number has about 200 people responding. Second, because of the small sample, it is almost always wrong. Third, it is still easily at levels that indicate the consumer will continued to spend. Fourth, until it hits those low levels (low 60's, 50's), the consumer will say one thing and do another. Heck, the consumer always says one thing and does the other regardless of the sentiment levels. Moreover, if you were in Michigan getting bombarded by all of this campaigning, your attitude might be kind of down right now. Anyone else out there just want to get this election over so we can get on with the lawsuits about the outcome?
New York PMI tanks again while industrial production gains don't match expectations.
Manufacturing continues to remain hot and cold. It looked to be heating up in September after a cool late summer, but the New York survey, one of the more volatile, was dropping hard again in October. Still showing expansion, but again, at a slower pace.
September industrial production rose 0.1%, less than the 0.3% expected. August was revised to -0.1%. Not a banner month, but this data also includes output from mining. The hurricanes wreaked havoc on Gulf of Mexico oil production, at least enough to keep significant production off line, and that impacted the final number. Thank goodness Ivan did not veer further west and really hammer the production facilities.
Greenspan does not see oil as a long term threat.
The rise in oil prices this year is likely to have less impact on the economy than the 1970's oil shocks according to Mr. Greenspan. He believes oil prices have cut 0.75 points from GDP thus far, and there would be "risk of more serious negative consequences . . . if oil prices were to move materially higher." Ah yes, the old 'material' factor. What the hell is material? $54/bbl sure seems to be, particularly with refineries humping to make heating oil but still falling short.
That, of course, is all near term worry apparently. Greenspan does have a point that the current price run won't hold. That is showing up in the futures market as long-term oil futures have not risen as fast as near-term prices. That implies short term disruption that will abate. Moreover, Greenspan was intent upon looking down the road, noting that technological advances and market forces would ensure an adequate supply as the world transitions to other power sources. We have no doubt that there will be a transition to alternative sources over the next 4 years as the next administration is finally forced to put together an energy plan and Congress is forced by the electorate to vote it into law. Some nuclear, solar, geothermal, and wind would all help. Of course many will want to forestall nuclear again for environmental reasons although countries such as France derive 70% or more of their electricity from nuclear. And wind power? One side of the political spectrum supposedly more concerned with air quality voted to block offshore windmills that would provide nonpolluting, renewable energy because the machines would be an aesthetic detriment. That is counterbalanced by the other side that is focused primarily on incentives to drill for more fossil fuels. As always the result will be in the middle. Some incentives for all viable sources would help along with letting the market decide which it prefers. There is definite economic incentive to move forward.
Both sides need to get it that a big dent can be made by attacking the problem incrementally from several angles. Those are not going to solve the near term price spike. That will take a reduction of the terror premium built into the price, and that won't think about occurring until the election is over and the threat of a pre-election attack is over. Even that won't remove all of the $10 to $12 terror premium.
Summary: The economy continues to expand at a solid pace though more indicators are showing slowing expansion versus accelerating. There are bright spots as the retail sales show and the Q4 capital investment will show, but there is a lot of uncertainty holding back full out investment in new people by businesses. That is nothing new, a holdover from the collapse starting in 2000. That keeps hope of a major breakout in jobs and more investment down the road, but for now it is the same hope that has been there for over a year. Even with that, the economy continues to surprise now and again as it did with the Friday retail sales. Another such surprise will come with the Q3 GDP.
THE MARKET
Stocks ran up, down, up and back down Friday, managing to hold a gain and avoid breaking the September lows on SP500. That extra mileage put on Friday and the rising volume did not change the complexion. Expiration may have worked to hold the market higher as there were many open option interests on SP500 at the 1100 level; large open interest at a key support level at expiration can keep a stock or index from moving in the direction most favorable to the majority open interest. Once those expire stocks can continue the move. That was downside up to expiration. That puts even more pressure on NASDAQ to perform in a leadership role.
Market Sentiment
Other than three consecutive closes over 1.0 by the CBOE put/call ratio and 2 back-to-back 1.01 closes by the overall put/call ratio, sentiment remains far from extremes. Indeed, the ratio of bulls to bears is heading the wrong way; bulls are near the bearish 55% level and bears are near the bearish 20% level.
VIX: 15.04; -1.39
VXN: 21.8; -0.5
VXO: 15.89; -1.24
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; -0.19
NASDAQ
Did not lead the market (small caps did that), but held the 50 day EMA and in the best shape to rebound this week.
Stats: +8.48 points (+0.45%) to close at 1911.5
Volume: 1.653B (+2.76%). Volume rose as NASDAQ held the 50 day EMA, but with expiration you cannot put much into it. Particularly true when compared to the Wednesday high volume reversal after the gap higher. Still, only 1 higher volume selling session on NASDAQ this month. NASDAQ has sold, but it has not shown the intensity of the other indexes.
Up Volume: 797M (+314M)
Down Volume: 717M (-371M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.45 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.23 to 1
New Highs: 54 (+8)
New Lows: 65 (+6)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
Tapped the 50 day EMA (1898.75) but held its ground and rebounded to post a modest gain. It still gave back more than half of its upside move, but with the selling in the other indexes this was not bad action. NASDAQ has sold, but has avoided serious distribution, held the range marking the September highs, held the 50 day EMA, and is easily holding over the September low. It is in good position to rebound, but needs some earnings to deliver the beef.
NASDAQ 100 showed a nice, tight doji on the candlestick pattern, holding over the 50 day EMA for the fourth session and again tapping the 200 day SMA on the high. It too is in good position to rebound.
SOX is holding over the late September low. It has not given up that low, and if NASDAQ can lead it will likely follow.
S&P 500/NYSE
The large caps are still struggling, hanging onto key support at 1100 and holding over the late September low.
Stats: +4.91 points (+0.45%) to close at 1108.2
NYSE Volume: 1.647B (+10.49%). Best volume since the quarter end to close out September. As with that day, however, it was artificial given it was triple witch.
Up Volume: 977M (+539M)
Down Volume: 636M (-405M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.16 to 1. The small caps led and that really pumped up breadth.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
New Highs: 99 (+43)
New Lows: 61 (-3)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^spx.html
Insurance stocks were still under pressure but unlike Thursday, SP500 was able to hold the line. It was an inside session with the high and low contained within the Thursday trading range. That does not tell us a lot about the session but it tends to allow the current move to continue. That is not what SP500 needs for more upside; it cannot afford to undercut the late September low (1101) on the close or it blows this rebound off the August low and continues the 10 month base.
The small caps held the 50 day EMA (287) and led the market higher. Fell back from resistance at 291-292 on the high. Still above the late September low and holding that important 50 day EMA. It can give NASDAQ some support on a further rebound attempt.
DJ30
DJ30 was the weakest pattern heading into the end of last week, and it proved it, breaking below the September low (9988 closing). It held the next support level at 9900 and managed a slight rebound as volume shot higher. As with SP500, it was the strongest volume since quarter end for what that was worth. Held the May lows but that is about all you can say for it right now.
Stats: +38.93 points (+0.39%) to close at 9933.38
Volume: 317 million shares Friday versus 268 million shares Thursday.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
THIS WEEK
Stocks start Monday where they left off Thursday. Friday was a throw away session for the most part as it was expiration and stocks simply held their position without many breakouts. Volume was up but it was artificial given the triple witch expiration. In short Friday answered no questions though it gave the market another shot at rebounding as it bought time into next week for stocks to make an upside rebound.
Earnings will come pouring in this week and they will be the main focus. The economic data dies off some with CPI, Leading indicators, and the Philly Fed atop the marquis. Thus far earnings have obviously failed to inspire buying, at least on a wide scale basis. Individual stocks are rewarded, some stocks are killed, most are just generally languishing.
Many leaders are still holding their ground, continuing their pullbacks to near support until NASDAQ can lead SP500 higher. SP500 may still give an intraday test below the September low before rebounding. It is important it does not undercut that level on the close, but an intraday move below that level can chase out the final sellers and bring in short covering and some buying. NASDAQ has hardly distributed, so it is still in solid shape to rebound and continue the move higher. A good shakeout and rebound could bring the buyers right back in.
The market continues to have its problems. No move has been sustained in this 10 month base, and this rally from August has had its own starts and stops. Oil is still a primary governor on the economy's ability to grow; the market will discount the impact of that price increase before the economy shows a lot of it. So far this rally has mostly shaken off the effects of rising prices. If the keep moving higher, at some point that will cease. Thus we cannot ignore the problems of SP500 as it could be broadcasting trouble for the overall market. We just have to see if NASDAQ and the small cap indexes are strong enough to hold the line and bring buyers back in.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1911.50
Resistance:
September high at 1921.
October gap up point at 1952.
The 200 day SMA at 1963
January/late June down trendline at 1968
Price resistance at 2050
Support:
The low of the September range at 1900
The 50 day EMA at 1898
September gap up point at 1894
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1891
S&P 500: Closed at 1108.20
Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 1108
The 50 day EMA at 1115.
The 200 day SMA at 1120
1125 to 1130 is prior price resistance, and 1128 is the September closing high.
The March/June down trendline at 1127
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
September low at 1101
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1064 (August low).
Dow: Closed at 9933.38
Resistance:
9980 to 10,000.
The 10 day EMA at 10,038
The 50 day EMA at 10,127
The February/June 2004 down trendline at 10,240
The 200 day SMA at 10,287
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
9900 is some support from the May and July lows is trying to hold.
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 19
Housing Starts, September (8:30): 1950K expected and 2000K prior
Building Permits, September (8:30): 1948K expected and 1969K prior
CPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Core CPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
October 21
Initial Jobless Claims, 10/16 (8:30): 352K prior
Leading Economic Indicators, September (10:00): -0.1% expected and -0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, October (12:00): 19.2 expected and 13.4 prior
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: AH; AKS; BYD, CYTC; PMTC; SBAC; TWTI; VRSN
Thursday night play results:
IDNX: Held steady on lower volume Friday. Still poised for the breakout.
MRVC: Gapped higher and moved up again on strong trade.
PER: Started up off the 18 day EMA, but no volume yet.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/16/2004
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$29.89; +1.29; no options): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/odfl.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume surged Friday as ODFL moved toward the breakout from its 16 week flat base that formed along the 50 day EMA (28.41). The 50 day EMA is a key level because it is where institutions step in to support a stock if they are so inclined. Trucking came under pressure last week as all of the recent leaders (metals, oil and gas, shipping) were sold. ODFL checked up at the 50 day EMA and surged as volume came back in and pushed it right to the breakout point. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the base shows net buyers, and sets up the breakout.
Volume: 380.255K Avg Volume: 159K
BUY POINT: $30.28 Volume=250K Target=$36 Stop=$28.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/odfl.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
SAY (Satyam Computer Services--$26.38; -0.52; no options): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/say.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A top rated stock in terms of earnings and sales. SAY is working laterally the past week after a strong surge Monday and Tuesday on solid trade. You could argue that those moves were the breakout from its 9.5 month base sporting solid 9 to 7 accumulation. It has formed a nice, quiet base with excellent price/volume action: volume dried up well below average in June, July and August, then swelled as the stock moved higher in September and October as it rallied to start forming the right side of the base. It dipped lower to end the week, tapping the 10 day EMA (25.64) on the intraday low as volume faded. Preparing for the next move higher, and it only has to make it to the prior high to give us a nice gain.
Volume: 273.5K Avg Volume: 288.772K
BUY POINT: $27.78 Volume=450K Target=$34 Stop=$26.21
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/say.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
TEO (Telecom Argentina--$10.93; +0.29; no options): Foreign telecom services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/teo.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Thursday and Friday as TEO jumped off of the 18 day EMA (10.60), the level acting as support in the handle to its 30 week base. Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation in the base has set the stock up for a nice breakout move. Volume is surging as it starts the move off of the bottom of the handle as TEO starts to follow the money flow higher. In addition, relative strength broke out ahead of the stock, a very bullish indication that the stock price is going to follow.
Volume: 361.7K Avg Volume: 165.863K
BUY POINT: $11.12 Volume=285K Target=$13.38 Stop=$10.54
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/teo.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
TV (Grupo Televisa--$53.3; +0.02; optionable): Spanish broadcast television
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tv.html
STATUS: 18 day EMA test. TV is making its second test of the breakout from its 22 week base formed from April to September. It broke out on strong volume and rallied to 55.39 on the run. It is now coming back for its first test of the 18 day EMA (52.90; it tested the 10 day EMA, 53.64, on the first test.). Very solid price/volume action in the pullback with up sessions on rising volume and lower volume on down sessions. Money flow remains strong, holding easily ahead of the price even as the stock makes this test. The 18 day EMA is a logical point to hold on a breakout test, and we are looking for volume to rebound as the stock makes the rebound off of this support. Strong stocks make 4 to 5 such bounces off the short term MA (10 or 18 day EMA) after the breakout, and that leaves TV with plenty of upside on this breakout move.
Volume: 230.4K Avg Volume: 380K
BUY POINT: $53.78 Volume=570K Target=$61 Stop=$52.78
POSITION: TV DJ - Apr. $50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tv.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
HDWR: Holding over the 50 day EMA on low volume. Setting up nicely for the next move.
MSFT: Forming a handle after the early October move off the 200 day SMA consolidation.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
SLM: Moving laterally over the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume following a strong breakout in September. It is not giving up its gains, a sign of strength.
RNOW: A new issue in August, RNOW gapped higher in early October. It has moved laterally the past three weeks, holding the 10 day EMA on low volume. Looks ready to continue its run.
Downside:
FLML: Has rallied back up to the 50 day SMA after a nasty gap lower in mid-September. Spent two weeks trying to break through but turned lower Friday on rising volume.
RI: After a nasty gap lower to start the month, RI has rebounded to the 10 day EMA on lower and lower volume. Looks to have run out of gas on the rebound.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AH 09/08 DB hdl 43.04 +1.52 38.89 44.12 595K 1M 41.32
Current. Gapped up at the open and continued to soar on stronger, but average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
AKAM 10/05 Cup 14.98 -0.48 15.63 18.55 2.1M 3.7M 14.94
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape making higher lows. Will need to hold here.
AKS 09/22 Cup hdl 9.87 +0.5 7.85 9.38 2.1M 1.9M 9.58
Current. Continue to move up on stronger above average volume for a nice gain after testing the breakout.
ALDN 10/13 DB hdl 22.32 -1.07 25.55 30.68 428K 457K 23.98
Buy Not Hit. Thudded down tapping 21.57 at the intraday low and rallied back holding below the 18 day MVA. The stock has not made the move we were looking for so will drop, but will keep our eye on it.
ALVR 10/13 DB hdl 15 +0.4 15.12 18.15 2M 750K 14.25
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session tapping 14.20 intraday and rallied on strong volume surge. Came off day's high of 15.45. Did not enter the play, because of the volatility. Holding at some resistance.
AMT 09/30 Flat 16.26 +0.13 15.55 18.68 4M 1.8M 15.97
Current. Moving up after routine pullback on stronger above average volume. Showing good strength.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 9.63 +0.16 8.91 10.72 1.4M 1.6M 8.93
Current. Continue with uptrend for a nice move up on rising, but above average volume.
AVN 10/07 FlyPlat 3.14 -0.02 3.22 4.14 448K 1M 2.99
Current. Making a lateral move above the 10 day MVA on low volume. Managing to retain its gain.
BEV 10/11 Cup hdl 7.85 +0.09 8.29 10 270K 1.1M 7.79
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 18 day MVA as stock moves up on low volume holding above the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 29.87 +1.21 28.79 33.54 687K 400K 28.89
Current. Explosive move on stronger above average volume making a 52 week high.
CRZO 10/09 Cup hdl 9.8 -0.05 10.22 12.45 141K 262K 9.63
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still forming the handle.
CVNS 10/13 Cup hdl 11.81 +0.01 12.12 14.75 58K 142K 11.38
Buy Not Hit. Moving along the 10 day MVA on low volume as stock continues in the pattern.
CVS 10/02 Cup hdl 43.25 +0.49 43.58 49.58 1.2M 2.5M 42.48
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back on below average volume. Still in good shape.
CYTC 10/04 Flat 26.25 +0.74 25.05 29.58 2.2M 1.7M 25.34
Current. Nice move off the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge. Came off the day's high of 27.02. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
DOVP 09/30 Cup hdl 17.02 +0.07 17.04 19.95 94K 447K 16.89
Current. Showing a doji on the 18 day MVA on low volume. Forming a handle.
DRIV 10/09 Cup hdl 29.7 +0.23 30.12 35 395K 1.1M 29.05
Buy Not Issued. Still in the pattern.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 93.76 -1.71 88.05 99.94 9.7M 14M 93.25
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 93.76 -1.71 71.78 82.25 9.7M 10M 92.48
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 93.76 -1.71 34.72 46 9.7M 12M 89.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 93.76 -1.71 31.22 46 9.7M 12M 89.55
Current.
ELGX 08/26 Cup hdl 6.5 -0.03 6.54 7.84 46K 120K 6.48
Current. Pullback testing the 50 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern showing strength coming off the day's low.
ENER 10/11 Cup hdl 19.75 +0.09 16.08 19 875K 200K 18.98
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave most of it back tapping 18.61 intraday on much lower, but still strong volume. Still in uptrend.
FFIV 10/02 Cup hdl 31.35 -0.94 32.85 38 1.1M 1.4M 31.88
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on stronger above average volume. Needs to hold the 18 day MVA and rebound.
HURC 10/12 Test BO 15.57 -0.36 15.76 19 117K 150K 14.97
Current. Pullback on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
IDNX 10/14 Rv H&S 6.99 +0.03 7.22 8.62 1.2M 1.5M 6.89
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 6.72 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on lower, but average volume. Still in the pattern. Looking good.
MFE 10/12 Test BO 20.81 +0.16 20.78 24.42 758K 1.8M 20.32
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open showing a tight doji on low volume. Have not entered the play because volume was not there. Still a buy if stock follows through with the move with some volume.
MRVC 10/14 Cup 3.2 +0.1 3.21 4.55 2.1M 1.1M 2.99
Entered today. Continued with yesterday move as stock gaps up at the open and continues to move up on lower, but still very strong volume. Came off the day's high of 3.30.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 14.54 -0.03 15.25 19 499K 1M 14.68
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 14.25 at the low and rallied back showing a doji under the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Testing the breakout.
PER 10/14 Test BO 15.86 +0.23 15.89 19 292K 540K 15.31
Buy Not Issued. Moving up after testing the breakout on lower, below average volume. Needs more volume before we will enter the play.
PMTC 10/04 BO 5.87 +0.32 5.66 6.88 5.7M 1.3M 5.28
Current. Gapped up at the open for a great move up the 10 day MVA on very strong volume surge making a 52 week high.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 42.47 +0.31 38.82 45 14M 11M 40.55
Current. Volatile session tapping 41.89 at the low and rallied back showing a doji on rising, but average volume. Continue with uptrend.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 42.47 +0.31 35.42 40.48 14M 11M 40.55
Current.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 8.1 +0.24 5.88 7 1.3M 635K 7.44
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Holding at some resistance.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 27.95 -2.01 31.32 36.85 2.8M 1.2M 31.78
Current. Gapped down again, but held above the 18 day EMA on
the close. Given the gap we decided to see if it gives
a rebound from that level.
SWKS 10/02 Test 20 9.79 -0.11 10.55 12.78 2.7M 4.9M 9.98
Current. Ease back below the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern, but needs to hold here and rebound.
TWTI 09/30 Test BO 8.02 +0.58 6.97 8.32 443K 236K 7.78
Current. Explosive move up the 10 day MVA on excellent volume surge.
UPCS 10/12 Flat 4.7 +0.01 4.82 5.99 347K 600K 4.49
Current. Volatile session showing a doji on average volume. Routine pullback.
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 22.05 +0.59 20.44 24.44 7.5M 2.6M 21.48
Current. Great move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
WIND 09/30 DB hdl 13.1 -0.03 12.16 14.48 1M 973K 12.45
Current. Pullback on lower, but still above average volume. May test back to the 10 day MVA. Still in good shape.
WWCA 10/11 Cup hdl 28.2 0 28.06 32.48 559K 1.4M 26.88
Buy Not Issued. Showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Have not entered the play, because volume was not there.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 25.85 +0.77 26.32 32 367K 525K 25.22
Buy Not Issued. Moving up on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
PTEK 09/27 Put 8.63 +0.22 8.71 7.38 266K 825K 8.76
Low volume rally testing the 10 day MVA intraday, but could not hold the gain on low volume. Still in downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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