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trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: CRXL; ENWV; KMRT; JUPM; PLMD; QCOM; SNDA; YHOO
Best Plays:
1) NOVN: Nice breakout getting underway.
2) PLT: Beautiful breakout test from a solid leader.
3) VTIV: Another nice breakout just starting.
4) ASKJ: Volume is up. Getting ready.
5) PRAA: Volume still strong. On the verge.
6) CMTL: When it goes it will likely really move.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/18/2004
HMX (Hartmarx--$8.00; +0.25; no options): Men's Apparel Group, Women's Apparel Group
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hmx.html
STATUS: Cup. Volume has surged the past two weeks as HMX massed for the breakout from its 12 week base that formed mostly at the 50 day EMA (7.20). Monday it started the breakout as volume hit its highest level in 3 months. Relative strength broke out with the stock, a good confirmation of the move. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern shows almost all buyers as the stock consolidated in the base. It has set the foundation for the breakout and subsequent run. Looking to pick up positions on a further upside move on continued solid trade and then take more positions on a test.
Volume: 318.4K Avg Volume: 132.727K
BUY POINT: $8.09 Volume=150K Target=$9.75 Stop=$7.52
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/hmx.html
Play Date: 10/18/2004
NOVN (Noven Pharmaceuticals--$23.07; +1.3; optionable): Drug delivery products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/novn.html
After Hours: $23.11
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged Monday as NOVN broke out over resistance at 22, blasting higher on that strong trade and following the strong money flow higher. Excellent 12 to 4 accumulation in the base set the foundation for the breakout and subsequent run. Ready to move in on a continued move on solid volume and then again on a breakout test.
Volume: 374.973K Avg Volume: 142.318K
BUY POINT: $23.27 Volume=200K Target=$27.94 Stop=$21.97
POSITION: NPQ AX - Jan. $22.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/novn.html
Play Date: 10/18/2004
PLT (Plantronics--$46.26; +1.25; optionable): Telecom headsets, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plt.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice breakout to end September, moving out of a 30 week cup with handle base sporting strong 9 to 6 accumulation. Money flow is rallying sharply higher ahead of price and relative strength is ready to make the breakout, a strong corroboration of the move. Volume surged on the breakout and eased as it made this test. It then jumped back up Monday as PLT resumed the move. Looking to pick up positions on a further rebound.
Volume: 503.6K Avg Volume: 424.181K
BUY POINT: $46.72 Volume=500K Target=$53.75 Stop=$45.45
POSITION: PLT BI - Feb. $45c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plt.html
Play Date: 10/18/2004
VTIV (Ventiv Health--$17.95; +1.10; optionable): Outsourced sales and marketing for pharma, biotech & life sciences.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vtiv.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Volume jumped Monday as VTIV started the breakout move from its nicely formed 17 week double bottom with handle base. Relative strength is starting the breakout as well, a good confirmation of the move. Looking to start a position on a further upside move on volume, and then look to complete the position on the first test of the breakout.
Volume: 456.811K Avg Volume: 238.318K
BUY POINT: $18.12 Volume=357K Target=$21.75 Stop=$16.98
POSITION: QBP AW - Jan. $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vtiv.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/11/2004
ARBA (Ariba--$10.48; +0.11; optionable): Internet software and services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/arba.html
After Hours: $10.48
STATUS: Cup. Volume jumped back up to average Monday as ARBA held the 18 day EMA (10.11). Looks set to make the try at a run toward the 200 day SMA (13.32). It is in the process of building its base, thus far a 10 month pattern. This test is part of the process: rally through resistance, then come back and test, then rally some more. Still in a good risk/reward position and has plenty of room to run toward the 200 day SMA.
Earnings: Oct. 27
Volume: 626.652K Avg Volume: 608K
BUY POINT: $10.78 Volume=835K Target=$13.45 Stop=$10.32
POSITION: IRV AB - Jan. $10c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/arba.html
Play Date: 10/14/2004
ASKJ (Ask Jeeves--$35.10; +1.14; optionable): Internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/askj.html
After Hours: $35.22
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving in a tight lateral range just below 35 and above the 10 day EMA (33.76). Volume surged last Wednesday on the YHOO earnings. It has held its ground since, forming the handle to its 4.5 month base. Positive accumulation shows buyers in the lead during the base and setting the foundation for a breakout. Money flow is moving higher ahead of price. Again, ASKJ can fly when it gets running, and we are looking for a run to the high in the pattern near 42.50. That gives us a nice gain, and if it wants to continue higher from there, all the better.
Volume: 3.902M Avg Volume: 4.418M
BUY POINT: $35.55 Volume=6M Target=$42.48 Stop=$33.12
POSITION: AUK AG - Jan. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/askj.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
AXP (American Express--$52.70; +0.20; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/axp.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still working on the handle to its 8 month base, holding over the 18 day EMA (52.08) on the lows. After that big volume spike Friday, AXP calmed down Monday, but remains in a solid pattern sporting 8 to 4 accumulation. Money flow continues to run sharply higher ahead of price and we anticipate AXP following the money higher.
Volume: 2.48M Avg Volume: 3.317M
BUY POINT: $53.55 Volume=4.9M Target=$60 Stop=$51.12
POSITION: AXP AJ - Jan. $50c (85 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/axp.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
CDIS (Cal Dive--$35.87; -0.21; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdis.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Tried to make the rebound from the test of the 18 day EMA (35.64), but could not hold the move higher, fading back to the 18 day by the close. CDIS broke out from an 8 week base in early September and ran to 38.75 on the first breakout run. Stocks typically use the 18 day EMA as support for a test of the breakout move, exactly what CDIS appears to be doing here. Indeed, money flow is still strong and has started to turn higher ahead of the price.
Volume: 319.489K Avg Volume: 415.5K
BUY POINT: $36.58 Volume=640K Target=$42.65 Stop=$35.55
POSITION: KPQ CG - Mar. $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cdis.html
Play Date: 10/13/2004
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$27.48; +0.19; optionable):: Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
After Hours: $26.48
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very low volume continues as CMTL holds a very tight range right on top of the 18 day EMA (26.48). Surging money flow continues to move higher as CMTL sets for the breakout from its 9 month base. Breakout looks imminent.
Volume: 125.87K Avg Volume: 267.59K
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=404K Target=$34 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: CQH AE - Jan. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmtl.html
Play Date: 10/16/2004
PRAA (Portfolio Recovery--$33.62; +0.13; no options): Outsourced receivables management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/praa.html
After Hours: $33.44
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume remained strong Monday as PRAA gapped higher but could not advance the move. It was a volatile session, trading well below the Friday close (33.49) before recovering for a modest gain. Still ready to make the breakout move from its 17 month base; we just want to see a better breakaway move. PRAA is a top rated stock in earnings and sales. Strong money flow is leading higher and we anticipate the stock will follow it.
Volume: 317.896K Avg Volume: 116K
BUY POINT: $33.89 Volume=188K Target=$40 Stop=$32.09
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/praa.html
Play Date: 10/14/2004
RAE (Rae Systems--$6.05; +0.13; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rae.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. RAE is working on an 8 month base that formed using the 200 day SMA (5.20) and the 50 day EMA (5.66) as support. It made a higher low at the 50 day on low volume, setting the stage for a breakout move. Excellent 9 to 4 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers and sets the stage for the breakout move. Money flow is strong and now the stock looks ready to follow it higher as it moves toward an all-time high.
Volume: 249.2K Avg Volume: 348.272K
BUY POINT: $6.32 Volume=524K Target=$7.65 Stop=$5.88
POSITION: RAE CA - Mar. $5c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/rae.html
Play Date: 10/06/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$19.45; +0.09; optionable): PC hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still very low volume as SGMS continues forming the handle to its 27 week base, holding the 18 day EMA (19.19) in a tight range. Very quiet, orderly action setting up for the breakout move. Nice tight doji with tail on Monday may indicate it is ready for the move. Want to see another strong volume breakout to show us enough buyers want it to send it sharply higher.
Earnings: Nov. 1 after the close
Volume: 276.617K Avg Volume: 568.454K
BUY POINT: $20.12 Volume=650K Target=$24 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: TUJ AD - Jan. $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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