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us stock market, trade stock
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10/19/04 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts issued Tuesday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: None issued
Trailing stop alerts: AKS
Stop alerts: AVN
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
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SUMMARY:
- TXN, IBM foster early rally that once again reverses on volume.
- CPI understates inflation for September, housing starts fade.
- Earnings continue to 'underwhelm' investors as expansion strength fails to justify a steady, uninterrupted rally.
- Set to test the lows yet again.
Early enthusiasm stampeded by sellers.
With futures pointing toward a fairly robust open that would push SP500 past the 50 day EMA, we cautioned pre-market that the test of that break, not the break itself, would be the key for the session. The index opened strong, clearing the 50 day EMA and flirting with a test of the 200 day SMA. It did not take out that more potent resistance and slid back to test the early move. It held, at least for 10 minutes. Then it slipped below the 50 day for good. Two modest rebound attempts made consecutive lower intraday highs, and when the last one failed the sellers piled on.
Sellers drove SP500 and NASDAQ to close at session lows on spiking volume. An early rally that reverses at resistance on rising volume and closes on session lows is just about the worst case scenario. Worse would have been making a lower low below 1101 on SP500 in the same session. As it stands, the large cap index is just over that point; can still hold at this level but the momentum after the reversal resumed the downward bias that started in early October. Even with the reversal, NASDAQ remains in decent shape as it and the small caps try to hold the line well above the last low. SOX even looks half way decent as it works in a trading range at the bottom of its 10 month base.
Thus it was not all gloom on the reversal, but the market remains hobbled, running into trouble every time it is just about poised to make a decent move. That has more to do with the persistent high oil prices and coming to grips with just how hard an impact they will have on the slowing expansion. Stock prices are driven by earnings and earnings in general depend upon economic health. Stock prices thus discount future economic growth. With spiking oil prices and high commodities, the large cap indexes such as SP500 and DJ30 and their industrial components are under a lot of pressure because those higher prices cut into earnings. If they cannot pass them on to consumers, then it is a direct cost that eats into earnings. If they are able to pass them along, that can give rise to inflation (same number of goods, rising prices), another condition that has a negative earnings impact down the road. We have already seen numerous companies blaming higher materials costs (e.g. steel) as hurting current earnings.
In short, the market fights back from selling as money works its way into the market, but has yet to make a clear breakaway move. Indeed, the past three important attempts at moving through important resistance or off of a key support level have failed. In the case of NASDAQ and SP600, it has not resulted in a breakdown and they are still in position to continue the move. SP500 is again struggling, however, and NASDAQ will have to pull it along with it. That anchor chain gets heavier and heavier each trip lower, however, and SP500 and DJ30 are back once more at recent lows and selling on stronger volume than they are rising on, showing more sellers in the market than buyers.
THE ECONOMY
September consumer prices supposedly tame, but don't feel that way.
Once more you look at the government numbers and then your wallet and you try to figure out the 'fuzzy math.' Yes the report showed prices rising 0.2% as expected and the core (less food and energy) rising 0.3%, a bit more than the 0.2% anticipated. Wait a minute. Take out energy and prices rose? That means energy prices were lower than we thought. Indeed, the report shows gasoline and other energy sources were flat. Problem is, the report did not pick up the spike higher in the last half of the month. It also showed housing prices fading. While some housing markets have peaked, that is not the same as prices falling. That does not even consider the other areas we have discussed in the past: insurance, healthcare, education, important parts of the economy that are not even included in the CPI.
You rationalize by saying well at least they are being consistent, but when you look at the energy costs from September and they were supposedly flat, well, that makes you wonder about the entire report. What we do know, however, is that energy prices continue to rise, and this time it is primarily because of demand. Sure there is a fear or terror premium tacked on, but even without that, prices have risen because of demand as opposed to some arbitrary cartel decision. More demand and a more or less constant supply means more dollars chasing the same number of goods.
That is the definition of inflation regardless of what the CPI says, and that is what the market is dealing with as it tries to rally but then runs into distribution as it tries to make the key moves. There are the other issues such as the election, the war on terror, Iraq, but the fundamental issue for stocks is future earnings. Higher oil prices are bad for several reasons as noted: they increase costs that reduce earnings if they cannot be passed along; they can cause inflation if the prices are passed along; they reduce disposable income for consumers to spend on products. Prices have yet to crack, have yet to lose the fear/terror premium, and that keeps oil higher than even demand would indicate.
THE MARKET
Early enthusiasm on some decent volume gave way to sellers on even stronger volume. Monday volume rose as stocks recovered late, a good indication, but overall volume was lower. That shows there were more buyers in the market, but not as many as the prior selling. The higher volume reversal Tuesday shows the early buyers were overrun by the sellers using the rebound on some decent earnings news to sell into.
Decent earnings. In short, not an outright disappointment, but not enough to bring in those on the sidelines still uncertain of the market, and definitely not enough to turn sellers into buyers. As discussed above, stocks discount future anticipated earnings. With rising prices just what those earnings will be is up in the air. Current earnings are not bad by any stretch, at least not in general. There is a dearth of strong guidance about the future. Sure some stocks are talking about the future in glowing terms, and their business niche may indeed be that good. Overall, however, the future earnings are the ones that matter today, and even the companies are not fired up about them. While that is not the final word on earnings, it does not help when companies are ambivalent about the future.
Stocks are for the most part mimicking that ambivalence as they are unable to string together a continued rally without being punctuated by higher volume selling. That shows some systematic unloading of stocks on each rally. Overall NASDAQ has enjoyed more accumulation than distribution, but it is having to offset SP500 and DJ30 weakness, not to mention some weakness in SOX (or at least the inability to mount any move thus far). Thus once more stocks head into a session with SP500 attempting to hang on and avoid making a lower low and opening the door for another test of the bottom of the base. One thing the market has been able to do to this point, however, is hold the move higher despite being pushed back hard more than once. Again, it will have to show the same upside ability.
Market Sentiment
VIX: 15.13; +0.42
VXN: 20.84; +0.12
VXO: 15.63; +0.94
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.95; +0.18. The 3 consecutive closes above 1.0 failed to yield much of a rebound, but we note that this can have a delayed effect, sometimes a week or so. Overall, however, sentiment indicators have not approached extreme levels.
NASDAQ
Gapped higher and rallied to the early October gap up point but ran out of gas. It reversed and sold back on rising volume though not as heavy as NASDAQ.
Stats: -13.62 points (-0.7%) to close at 1922.9
Volume: 1.723B (+13.26%). After volume rose on the Monday recovery, it rose more rapidly and was stronger on the Tuesday reversal. Not the strongest trade of the month, but the second in the past five sessions after going basically distribution free the past several weeks.
Up Volume: 736M (-476M)
Down Volume: 970M (+704M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.57 to 1. Remained under control in rather modest, comparatively, NASDAQ selling.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.46 to 1
New Highs: 92 (+10)
New Lows: 68 (+6)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
Gapped higher and has now fully filled the gap up to start the month. If you look at the pattern you see a gap higher early in the month, a lateral move that failed to take out the 200 day SMA, and then a gap lower. NASDAQ has rallied back to fill the gap lower but reversing yet again. Near term not a bullish indication, but NASDAQ does remain in the middle of its recent range and over the September consolidation (1921) and easily above the 50 day EMA (1901). It will have to perform as leader again, however.
NASDAQ 100 showed similar action, gapping higher but reversing to the close on rising volume. Held over the 200 day SMA and the down trendline, the silver lining in the session.
SOX continues its lateral move over 375 in a 6 week lateral move after bouncing off the September low. It is actually setting up a nice base, but it needs the time to complete it.
S&P 500/NYSE
Rallied over the 50 day EMA but failed below the 200 day and tanked back toward the late September low. Back again where it has to hold.
Stats: -10.79 points (-0.97%) to close at 1103.23
NYSE Volume: 1.733B (+25.83%). Strongest volume in four months as the index reversed below resistance, a classic bearish move. 3 distribution sessions in the past 9, SP500 showing more distribution than NASDAQ, and the pattern showing more wear and tear as well.
Up Volume: 486M (-248M)
Down Volume: 1.211B (+608M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.83 to 1. With health insurance companies possibly falling into Spitzer's crosshairs, the NYSE had a tougher time than NASDAQ.
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.2 to 1
New Highs: 127 (+10)
New Lows: 68 (+20)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^spx.html
Cleared the 50 day EMA (1114) early, rallied toward the 200 day SMA (1120), and then reversed. It fell below the 50 day EMA, made two weak attempts to try that level again, and then folded the tent. It broke the 50 day SMA (1110) as well, closing in on the late September low at 1101. Again, the significance of that level is the ability to make or hold a higher low. If the index undercuts that level it shows those that were buyers at that point are now not strong enough or numerous enough to hold the gains. That gives sellers the upper hand and sends the index back down to work once more on the bottom of its base after one of the more promising moves off the bottom of the pattern. Never did have the extreme sentiment readings to bolster it as we noted back in August and September.
SP600 (small caps) is still holding the 50 day EMA (287.14) even after reversing from a nice break higher early Tuesday. This remains mostly a 'must hold' level, though it has a few more points to give to the late September low.
DJ30
Rallied to the 10 day EMA on the high (10,020.55) but could not hold the move, reversing as well on rising, above average volume. Even IBM could not pull DJ30's castanets from the fire. DJ30 is still struggling to hold some support near 9900, where it has been holding recently and also the May lows. Still in the downtrend and looks ready to break through the May low and head toward the bottom of the channel.
Stats: -58.7 points (-0.59%) to close at 9897.62
Volume: 264 million shares Tuesday versus 227 million shares Monday. Some positive volume from IBM, but not nearly the levels on the recent disappointing earnings.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
WEDNESDAY
Once more the large cap indexes find themselves at a level they need to hold, something they were able to do last week. The more you hang around in a bad neighborhood, however, the more likely you are to slip into some trouble. That leaves NASDAQ and the small caps as the best chances for yet another rebound attempt.
There is a school of thought that the market will rally right before or just after the rally, moving higher through year end. Call it tradition, history, whatever. There is a major competing force as discussed above, namely oil prices. Without that overhand the ability to rally would be much more likely. With the oil overhang we see the halting rally attempts displayed thus far. Now there is distribution once more on a rally attempt gone bad. it is hard to keep coming back, but thus far stocks have done just that. Wednesday they have another opportunity with a slew of earnings out before and after the market. There were notably few released Tuesday after the close.
It certainly looks as if SP500 is now going to undercut the recent September low and make a lower low. If that happens the door is open to fall back toward 1080 easily. What we were looking for last week was an undercut that then reversed on some short covering, sending the indexes higher. SP500 did not undercut but rallied anyway before running out of steam. Maybe an undercut generates enough fear, but there is also another heavy distribution session in the mix where big money was dumping shares. NASDAQ remains in position to hold, but it too suffered some distribution.
It remains a market of individual stocks, though there were few making the kinds of moves Tuesday that tempted us to put a lot of money to work. We continue to look for stocks that are thus far ignoring the market overall and continuing to set up for upside. At the same time the distribution requires we watch how SP500 handles this key level. After all, most stocks follow the overall market, and if SP500 breaks down and drags NASDAQ, it is going to be a problem. Thus far many leaders remain in good shape, and the market has been resilient despite the repeated distribution bouts at key levels. Surprisingly, NASDAQ is the brightest point in the upside, and it is still holding up quite well.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1922.90
Resistance:
October gap up point at 1952.
The 200 day SMA at 1962
January/late June down trendline at 1965
Price resistance at 2050
Support:
September high at 1921.
The low of the September range at 1900
The 50 day EMA at 1901
September gap up point at 1894
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1894
S&P 500: Closed at 1103.23
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1114
The 200 day SMA at 1120
1125 to 1130 is prior price resistance, and 1128 is the September closing high.
The March/June down trendline at 1126
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
September low at 1101
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1064 (August low).
Dow: Closed at 9897.62
Resistance:
9980 to 10,000.
The 10 day EMA at 10,000 (stopped the Tuesday move)
The 50 day EMA at 10,112
The February/June 2004 down trendline at 10,235
The 200 day SMA at 10,282
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
9900 is some support from the May and July lows is trying to hold.
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 19
Housing Starts, September (8:30): 1898K actual versus 1950K expected and 2020K prior (revised from 2000K)
Building Permits, September (8:30): 2005K actual versus 1950K expected and 1969K prior (revised from 1952K)
CPI, September (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Core CPI, September (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
October 21
Initial Jobless Claims, 10/16 (8:30): 345K expected and 352K prior
Leading Economic Indicators, September (10:00): -0.1% expected and -0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, October (12:00): 18.0 expected and 13.4 prior
THE PLAYS
THE PLAYS
Monday night play results:
JLG: Gapped higher but could not hold the move, reversing on stronger volume.
PKD: Took a breather though volume remained strong.
TTH: Gapped higher but reversed and closed below the 18 day EMA on volume.
New plays for Wednesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/19/2004
LIFC (Lifecell--$10.21; +0.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lifc.html
After Hours: $10.16
STATUS: Cup w/handle. LIFC moves laterally the past two weeks, forming the handle to its 15 week base formed using the 200 day SMA (8.77) as support on the pattern low. Solid 4 to 2 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers, setting up the breakout and run. Money flow is strong, leading higher even as the stock moves laterally. Looking for a high volume breakout to move into positions.
Volume: 210.045K Avg Volume: 244.272K
BUY POINT: $10.74 Volume=366K Target=$13 Stop=$9.99
POSITION: QKL CB - Mar. $10c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lifc.html
Play Date: 10/19/2004
AUDC (Audiocodes--$13.1; +0.53; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/audc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Tuesday as AUDC continued its move off the 50 day EMA (12.03), rallying toward the breakout from its 9 month base sporting strong 9 to 6 accumulation in the pattern, showing net buyers as the stock consolidated. Money flow is turning higher, ready to lead the stock.
Volume: 593.768K Avg Volume: 318.863K
BUY POINT: $13.64 Volume=450K Target=$16.35 Stop=$12.69
POSITION: QAS CV - Mar. $12.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/audc.html
Continuing plays ready to move:
BEV
CVNS
FFIV
TV
Play Date: 10/07/2004
MSCC (Microsemi--$14.96; +0.09; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuit
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving off the 18 day EMA (14.51), trying to continue the breakout move from the double bottom with handle base. No volume Tuesday on the move, so it was struggling. A nice 7 month base, a good breakout, and now just looking for more volume on a further rebound off the 18 day.
Earnings: 11-18
Volume: 512.126K Avg Volume: 678.5K
BUY POINT: $15.25 Volume=1M Target=$19 Stop=$14.78
POSITION: QMS CC - Mar. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cD/mscc.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
EBAY: Earnings out Wednesday and it got a big wild into the close.
GTRC: Nice reverse head and shoulders base has formed along the 50 day EMA. Tried to breakout Tuesday on solid volume but gave most of the move back. Still strong and always seems to pull it out of the hat.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
CTSH: Making a test of the 10 day EMA, its third test of the 10 day EMA. Volume has been excellent on the climb this month.
CNVR: Forming a handle on low volume to its 9 month cup base. Forming up well.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AH 09/08 DB hdl 42.52 +0.01 38.89 44.12 532K 1M 41.32
Current. Volatile session tapping 41.89 at the low and rallied back holding above the 10 day MVA on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
AKAM 10/05 Cup 15.12 -0.32 15.63 18.55 2M 3.7M 14.94
Current. Pullback holding above the 18 day MVA on rising, but average volume. May test back to the 18 day MVA.
AKS 09/22 Cup hdl 8.61 -0.91 7.85 9.38 4M 1.9M 9.58
Trailing Stop. Tanked below the 18 day MVA on strong volume surge.
ALVR 10/13 DB hdl 14.84 +0.24 15.12 18.15 1.1M 750K 14.25
Buy Not Issued. Continue with uptrend showing a tight doji on stronger above average volume. Resistance at 15.
AMT 09/30 Flat 16.26 -0.14 15.55 18.68 1.5M 1.8M 15.97
Current. Tapped 16.78 at the high, but gave it all back on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 9.41 -0.29 8.91 10.72 1.5M 1.6M 8.93
Current. Thudded down on slightly stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 9.35.
AVN 10/07 FlyPlat 3.07 -0.09 3.22 4.14 990K 1M 2.99
Exited. Moving down on rising volume holding above the 18 day MVA.
BEV 10/11 Cup hdl 8.07 -0.04 8.29 10 1.2M 1.1M 7.79
Buy Not Hit. Tapped 8.25 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on much lower, but still strong volume. Holding at some resistance.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 30.44 -0.04 28.79 33.54 599K 400K 28.89
Current. Tapped 30.95 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on above average volume. Managing to retain its gain.
CRZO 10/09 Cup hdl 9.8 +0.14 10.22 12.45 85K 262K 9.63
Buy Not Issued. Gapped down to open below the 18 day MVA and rallied holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
CVNS 10/13 Cup hdl 11.8 -0.09 12.12 14.75 69K 142K 11.38
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
CVS 10/02 Cup hdl 43.66 -0.05 43.58 49.58 1.7M 2.5M 42.48
Current. Tapped 44.44 at the high, but gave it all back on stronger above average volume. Trying to break through some resistance
CYTC 10/04 Flat 27.06 -0.83 25.05 29.58 2.1M 1.7M 26.88
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on much lower, but still strong volume. May test back to support at 26.50.
DOVP 09/30 Cup hdl 17.11 -0.27 17.04 19.95 142K 447K 16.89
Current. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still forming handle.
DRIV 10/09 Cup hdl 31.02 -0.02 31 36 783K 1.1M 29.68
Current. Tapped 31.97 at the intraday high, but gave it bak on lower, but above average volume. Still in uptrend.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 92.45 -2.26 88.05 99.94 9.4M 14M 93.25
Current. Pullback holding below the 18 day MVA, but at support on rising, but average volume. Needs to hold here.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 92.45 -2.26 71.78 82.25 9.4M 10M 92.48
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 92.45 -2.26 34.72 46 9.4M 12M 89.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 92.45 -2.26 31.22 46 9.4M 12M 89.55
Current.
ELGX 08/26 Cup hdl 6.41 -0.06 6.54 7.84 54K 120K 6.48
Current. Volatile session tapping 6.34 at the intraday low and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. May test back to support at 6.33.
ENER 10/11 Cup hdl 19.3 -0.03 16.08 19 227K 200K 18.98
Current. Slight pullback on lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
FFIV 10/02 Cup hdl 32.45 +0.66 32.85 38 769K 1.4M 31.88
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on lower, but average volume. Came off the day's high of 33.09. Resistance at 32.80.
HURC 10/12 Test BO 15.59 +0.28 15.76 19 73K 150K 14.97
Current. Moving up the 10 day MVA after testing the breakout on lower below average volume.
IDNX 10/14 Rv H&S 7.05 -0.24 7.24 8.65 1.2M 1.5M 6.84
Current. Pullback on average volume holding at support. Still in good shape.
JLG 10/18 Test BO 16.09 -0.36 16.62 20 547K 350K 15.89
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding just below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 16.
LTD 10/18 Test BO 23.65 +0.06 23.55 27 2.5M 2.2M 22.82
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but average volume.
MFE 10/12 Test BO 22.35 +0.59 20.78 24.42 2.3M 1.8M 20.32
Buy Not Issued. Continue to move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Looking for it to test back.
MRVC 10/14 Cup 3.18 -0.1 3.21 4.55 1.2M 1.1M 2.99
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 3.10.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 14.96 +0.09 15.25 19 498K 1M 14.68
Buy Not Issued. Moving up after testing the breakout on lower, below average volume.
ODFL 10/16 Flat 29.28 -0.26 30.28 36 148K 250K 28.36
Buy Not Issued. Volatile session tapping 10 day MVA and rallied back on lower, but average volume. Testing the breakout.
PER 10/14 Test BO 15.7 -0.09 15.89 19 138K 540K 15.31
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 10 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Making a lateral move.
PKD 10/18 DB hdl 3.99 +0.03 4.05 4.92 697K 300K 3.77
Buy Not Hit. Continue with uptrend showing a doji on very strong volume surge. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
PMTC 10/04 BO 5.87 +0.06 5.66 6.88 3.8M 1.3M 5.28
Current. Continue to move up up the 10 day MVA on lower, but strong volume. Came off the day's high of 6.07.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 42.8 -0.8 38.82 45 16M 11M 40.55
Current. Gapped up at the open, but reversed on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 42.50.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 42.8 -0.8 35.42 40.48 16M 11M 40.55
Current.
SAY 10/16 Cup hdl 27.98 +0.44 27.82 34 816K 450K 26.85
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but still very storng volume showing a tight doji.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 8.15 -0.25 5.88 7 1.5M 635K 7.44
Current. More volatile session tapping 8.77 at the high, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. May test back to 8.10. Still in good shape.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 28.65 -0.6 31.32 36.85 1.3M 1.2M 31.78
Current. Pullback tapping 27.52 at the low and rallied back on much lower, but still above average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
SWKS 10/02 Test 20 10.27 +0.18 10.55 12.78 4.8M 4.9M 9.98
Current. Gapped up at the open for a nice gain showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 10.59. Still in good shape.
TEO 10/16 Cup hdl 10.48 -0.4 11.12 13.38 218K 285K 10.54
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but gave it back holding at support, but below the 18 day MVA on lower, but still above average volume. Stock needs to hold here and rebound.
TTH 10/18 Test BO 29.34 -0.36 30.05 34.55 489K 400K 29.37
Buy Not Hit. Gapped up at the open, but reversed holding just below the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume. May test back to 29.20, but will need to hold there.
TV 10/16 Test 18 53.61 +0.2 53.78 61 571K 570K 52.78
Buy Not Issued. Moving up on strong volume holding the 10 day MVA. Still in the pattern. If continues the move tomorrow with nice volume will be a buy. Did not enter today, because did not like the market action in coming off the high.
TWTI 09/30 Test BO 7.85 -0.05 6.97 8.32 597K 236K 7.78
Current. Tapped 7.42 at the intraday low and rallied back showint a tight doji on lower, but still very strong volume. Still in uptrend.
UPCS 10/12 Flat 4.82 -0.13 4.82 5.99 430K 600K 4.49
Current. Ease back on much lower, but average volume. Still in good shape.
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 22.16 +0.03 20.44 24.44 6.3M 2.6M 21.48
Current. Volatile session. Came off the day's high of 22.74 showing a doji on much stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in pattern.
WIND 09/30 DB hdl 13.79 +0.33 12.16 14.48 1.6M 973K 12.45
Current. Nice move up the 10 day MVA on stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 14.15.
WWCA 10/11 Cup hdl 27.99 -0.03 28.06 32.48 793K 1.4M 26.88
Buy Not Issued. Pullback on rising, but average volume. Still in good shape. May test back to support at 27.90.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 25.53 -0.22 26.32 32 363K 525K 25.22
Buy Not Issued. Pullback holding the 18 day MVA on below average volume. Still in the pattern.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
PTEK 09/27 Put 9.25 +0.43 8.71 7.38 478K 825K 8.76
Rallied holding above the 50 day MVA on rising, but still below average volume. Needs to rollover here or will drop.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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