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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BEV; KRY; LIFC; PKD; MSCC; SNDA
Tuesday night play results:
LIFC: Super breakout on strong breakout.
AUDC: Volume faded and it basically went nowhere Wednesday.
MSCC: Started up off the 18 day EMA. Could have used more trade, but was worth starting the position.
New plays for Thursday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/20/2004
IMOS (Chipmos Technologies--$8.93; -0.05; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imos.html
After Hours: $8.91
STATUS: 200 day SMA test. IMOS is working on the right side of its 10 month base. It has rallied up through the 200 day SMA (8.59) and is moving laterally the past three weeks at that level, consolidating the move from the August lows and setting up for the continued move higher to form its base. As with many chips, it has formed up nicely, and it is in a good risk/reward position here at the 200 day. Money flow is solid, leading higher ahead of price. Nice doji over the 200 day SMA, and looking for a good surge in above average volume to start the play.
Volume: 469.386K Avg Volume: 812.136K
BUY POINT: $9.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$11.85 Stop=$8.94
POSITION: GMQ CB - Mar. $10c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/imos.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
MDCC (Molecular Devices--$24.68; -0.05; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdcc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. AGYS has set up the current 9 week base over the 50 day EMA (22.99), moving laterally on low volume until this week when volume surged and MDCC moved toward a breakout. This base follows a nice 7 month cup with handle breakout in August. This short consolidation is setting up the next run higher in the breakout move. Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the current base shows all buyers as it took a breather. Money flow is solid and relative strength is ready to make the breakout with the stock.
Volume: 350.501K Avg Volume: 237.909K
BUY POINT: $25.02 Volume=357K Target=$25.45 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: MCQ AE - Jan. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mdcc.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
PETD (Petroleum Development Corp.--$39.29; +2.48; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petd.html
After Hours: $39.29
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (37.05). PETD made us some excellent money on its breakout and run in September. It has now tested that run, coming back to the 50 day EMA in the recent oil stock selling, filling the gap as it does. That set the stage for the rebound, and Wednesday PETD jumped off of that level on rising, above average volume. Looking for a move through the 18 day EMA (39.99) on continued strong volume to move into positions.
Volume: 609.755K Avg Volume: 508.136K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=762K Target=$50 Stop=$39.22
POSITION: PHQ AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/petd.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
SYD (Sybron Dental--$32.05; +1.49; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syd.html
After Hours: $32.06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Volume exploded Wednesday as SYD jumped out of the handle to its 9 month base. Volume surged, relative strength broke out, and money flow is racing higher. Seems to be hitting on all cylinders. Outstanding 12 to 3 accumulation in the base has set the stage for this breakout. Looking to pick up some shares on a continued breakout move and then some more on a successful test.
Volume: 642.1K Avg Volume: 251.318K
BUY POINT: $32.25 Volume=377K Target=$38 Stop=$31.22
POSITION: SYD AF - Jan. $30c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/syd.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$31.05; +0.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
After Hours: $31.34
STATUS: Flat base. SMH has moved laterally the past 6 weeks in a trading range between 29.50 and 32. Volume has surged the past two sessions as SMH moved off the bottom of the range, clearing the 50 day EMA (30.94) on the Wednesday close. Volume was tremendous Wednesday. Looking to start positions on a further volume move, anticipating a breakout from the range this time around. Playing options on this one and looking for a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 42.525M Avg Volume: 23.77M
BUY POINT: $31.21 Volume=28M Target=$34 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: SMH AF - Jan. $30c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smh.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Trying to make the move off the 50 day EMA.
EBAY: Strong earnings after hours sent it higher.
GTRC: Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the 18 week reverse head and shoulders base. Relative strength already breaking out.
MSFT: Volume is up as MSFT starts breaking out of the handle to the 4 month base.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
DITC: Volume surging as it tries to make the breakout from a 10 month base.
CTRP: Volume has surged the past two weeks as it moves toward a new high.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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