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world stock market, us stock market
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10/20/04 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts issued Wednesday: None issued
Buy alerts issued: KRY; PKD; BEV; FSL; MSCC; LIFC
Trailing stop alerts: None issued
Stop alerts: AH; PMTC; SAY
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdly.htm
SUMMARY:
- Market meets Tuesday distribution with solid upside session.
- Oil inventories continue to fall, and that will continue crimping consumption.
- SP500 undercuts September low then rebounds on solid trade.
- SOX perking up.
Stocks rebound, look solid though volume backs off slightly.
The 'on/off' switch was still being used Wednesday. Stocks continued the Tuesday selling in the early going. SP500 made a token attempt to hold at the late September low (1101), but was slipping lower through that point when the oil inventories for the week came out below expectations across the board. The selling increased its tempo on the news and SP500 reached down to the next support. That was the undercut we were looking for.
Almost on queue the 'on' switch was thrown and stocks started to rebound, moving straight up the next half hour as SP500 moved right back up to that September low. It was not a clean break back through that level, but it held on for an hour, then rallied right on through on solid trade. Indeed, volume was solid as the market recovered. An afternoon fade tested the 1100 level until the last hour when the index rebounded to match the session high on the close.
Why so much discussion about SP500? NASDAQ is in better shape, easily holding above its September low and the 50 day EMA. NASDAQ will find it hard to pull the market higher on its own if the large caps are selling lower and lower. SP500's ability, thus far, to hold the late September low and rebound is key because it keeps the rally off the August low alive.
The test lower and rebound was a classic intraday test below support and a rebound to hold that level. That can initiate a further upside move as the shorts cover as they did Wednesday and longer term buyers move in as well. It was not all short covering as the better performing indexes were leading Wednesday (NASDAQ, SP600 small cap index). When short covering is the only game in town, the worst performing stocks and indexes are the ones that recover because those are the stocks the shorts were selling. No doubt shorts were at work, but they were not the only game in town. The potential is there for a continued rebound, but as always, the question is whether the longer term buyers will take the baton when the shorts finish their covering.
THE ECONOMY
Oil inventories down yet again and oil rises toward $55/bbl.
There is an old Sammy Hagar song about his inability to drive 55 mph; yes, it is that old. Now that oil is nearing $55/bbl and inventories of crude and gasoline keep falling lower, perhaps the song should be changed to 'I can't drive with oil at $55.' A rather lame segue into the topic, but the point is there: if prices continue to rise and stay at this level into the holidays, consumers and businesses will have to divert more disposable income to burning fossil fuels to get to work, stay warm, fire up the machinery, etc. With a slowing economic expansion already, the weight of higher oil prices is only going to pressure it further.
You might ask why inventories continue to drop with OPEC pumping at or near capacity. First, OPEC cannot absorb the additional demand as it used to. The extra capacity it can bring to bear on the market is primarily heavy sour oil, i.e. high viscosity oil with a lot of sulfur in it. That is costly to refine, and indeed, many US refineries cannot crack it even if they wanted to. Second, even though Ivan was not the train wreck it could have been for Gulf of Mexico oil production, upwards of a million bbl/day are still offline. Moreover, gulf coast refining capacity remains diminished as several refineries are still closed or operating at reduced capacity. With the volatile compounds they are dealing with, the last thing you want to do is rush something back on line only to have an explosion or some other event.
Thus the picture did not brighten at all regarding the immediate future with respect to energy. There is a lot of supply even with the Gulf production reduced, but there is still a lot of event risk built into the price of every barrel, sweet or sour. When the event risk abates, that will allow prices to steady, and the jumps higher will slow and steady as well. Unfortunately, the event risk does not appear ready to abate with the election still 2 weeks out.
THE MARKET
Once more stocks did what they had to do, meeting the Tuesday reversal and distribution session with a rebound. Again, the action was classic with the undercut of support and then rebound as the shorts covered and some longer term buyers moved in for some of their favorite names at lower prices. Volume was lower but still solid; it did not wipe away the distribution but it was a decent response given SP500 rallied back sharply from the lows and NASDAQ continued to hold solidly in its range. For another session, NYSE volume eclipsed NASDAQ volume; as noted before, that is an indication that the speculative index is sold out. With NASDAQ looking the best of the major indexes, that has some merit to it.
Even on the close, it is still no picture of beauty, just a blue collar day at the office, doing what had to be done to fight off a further and more damaging drop. Thursday starts once again with SP500 holding over the September low, having to hang on and try to mount a continuation of the rally.
It has not been easy by any stretch, and it was not just business as usual. The hyperactive New York attorney general has helped the selling in his quest to make more of a name for himself for when he runs for governor or some other higher New York office. The mutual fund scams were inexcusable, and his pursuit of them worthy. The lawsuits against the northeastern utilities for global warming were preposterous. While the allegations in the insurance lawsuits sure smell bad if true, one has to wonder at the timing, coming within three weeks of a national election. The SP500, heavily weighted with insurance and healthcare companies has been hammered. Stock market performance is an election issue. Spitzer has timed his actions to best benefit him on the national stage and likely to promote his party.
Talking to floor traders and market makers, they have no love for Spitzer and many blame him for the selling. Well, if the companies were doing as alleged, it is improper behavior and the traders have no real complaint regarding that. Their argument regarding the timing, however, has some merit. In any event, it is another factor, another weight on stocks that they have to try and shake off to rally. Indeed, just as they were trying to make that election rally the lawsuits hit and started some distribution. There is no really good time for the market to announce this type of news, but the fact that it was done just a few weeks before a presidential election has most traders we talk to rather upset.
Market Sentiment
VIX: 14.85; -0.28
VXN: 20.65; -0.19
VXO: 15.1; -0.53
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; -0.1. Recall that there is often a week or so delay between hitting those 1.0 closed on the ratio and a meaningful rally. At the brink?
NASDAQ
NASDAQ continued as the mainstay for the market, holding over the 50 day EMA and within its recent range, answering the distribution with a solid upside session. The SOX continued its quiet improvement.
Stats: +10.07 points (+0.52%) to close at 1932.97
Volume: 1.672B (-2.92%). Volume was lower but ever so slightly and still a strong, above average volume session.
Up Volume: 995M (+259M)
Down Volume: 660M (-310M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.28 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.57 to 1
New Highs: 56 (-36)
New Lows: 77 (+9)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
NASDAQ undercut the 18 day EMA (1919), but never threatened the 50 day EMA (1902) on that low before rebounding to post a solid gain on some lower though still solid volume. It struggled on the oil inventory news, but it too rebounded sharply and closed at the session high hit earlier in the day. It continues to work laterally in a range between 1900 and the 200 day SMA (1961) as the large caps work through their selling. It has held the even keel for the market, and if SP500 did pull a reversal session out, NASDAQ may get some help and work toward a breakout from this range.
NASDAQ 100 showed similar action, undercutting the 200 day SMA (1440) on the low and then rebounding for a nice gain. The large cap techs performed a bit better than the overall index (+0.6%) and are in the best shape of the techs to mount a rally.
Then there is SOX, quietly building its base moving laterally the past 6 weeks. It just edged out the 50 day EMA (392.99) on the close with very good breadth in the index and in the chip world as well. It too has been trading in a range between 375 and roughly 406 on the high. If it comes through with a breakout, NASDAQ will be able to lead all the better.
S&P 500/NYSE
The reach down through support and then the rebound on solid volume to close positive. Nice reversal.
Stats: +0.43 points (+0.04%) to close at 1103.66
NYSE Volume: 1.689B (-2.55%). Volume faded but was still outstanding as stocks reversed and rebounded to the upside this day. It does not wipe away the distribution, but it was a good answer to it. Some of that trade was short covering, and that always has some fury behind it. That is, however, how rallies start.
Up Volume: 839M (+353M)
Down Volume: 813M (-398M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.16 to 1. Narrow breadth though small caps were one of the leadership groups. Breadth typically lags the overall turn, but narrow breadth on a rebound after some heavy selling tells us that short covering was involved.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.83 to 1
New Highs: 40 (-87)
New Lows: 73 (+5)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^spx.html
Discussed at length above with its continuation of the selling that undercut the important low and then reversed to rally positive on the close. It had the attributes of a key session, and the only thing substantively lacking was stronger trade than the prior day. Trade was excellent, just lower than the distribution the session before. The stage is set and now we see if the large caps can shake off the news that has plagued them the past two weeks.
The small caps continued to hold the 50 day EMA, undercutting intraday and then rebounding for a gain. Still in that narrow range between the 50 day EMA and 292. In position to rally, and if NASDAQ takes off and SOX rallies, you can bet SP600 will be there.
DJ30
Similar to SP500, the blue chips sold below the May low, tapped at the August lows and then rebounded. Unlike the other indexes, DJ30 rallied back on strong, rising volume. It was unable to close positive, but the intent was in the right place. If nothing else, DJ30 has sunk far enough in its downtrend to set up an oversold bounce.
Stats: -10.69 points (-0.11%) to close at 9886.93
Volume: 272 million shares Wednesday versus 264 million shares Tuesday.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
THURSDAY
Earnings are really churning now, and after hours there were plenty to give a boost to the Thursday trade. EBAY was on the move higher after hours along with several technology stocks. After the reversal and rebound Wednesday, those earnings could help push stocks higher as they try to hold the recent low and resume the rally off the August low. Thus far earnings have been unable to generate sustained buying in stocks. The market looks to be at a point where stocks have price in the bad news and are ready for a rebound whether a serious, additional follow through rally or an oversold bounce.
The semiconductors are looking better but many are still way down in their bases. Some opportunity may arise there. Technology is still so disdained and yet still forming up to make breakout moves (along with NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100) that it is much more interesting. We also note that the oil stocks perked up nicely Wednesday, starting the recovery from their recent plunge lower. At the same time market leaders that pulled back during the recent selling have set up for a rebound, and some will provide new entry points the next few sessions if the rebound can continue to take shape.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 1932.97
Resistance:
October gap up point at 1952.
The 200 day SMA at 1961.55
January/late June down trendline at 1965
Price resistance at 2050
Support:
September high at 1921.
The low of the September range at 1900
The 50 day EMA at 1902
September gap up point at 1894
The October 2002/March 2003 up trendline at 1895
S&P 500: Closed at 1103.66
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 1113.59
The 200 day SMA at 1120
1125 to 1130 is prior price resistance, and 1128 is the September closing high.
The March/June down trendline at 1126
1142-1146 are the June highs.
The April and January highs (1150 to 1155).
1159 (February highs) and 1160 to 1175 the highs in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002.
Support:
September low at 1101
1096 to 1100 represent price support.
May low at 1084 (closing) to 1076 (intraday).
1080 (May and July lows).
1064 (August low).
Dow: Closed at 9886.93
Resistance:
9980 to 10,000.
The 10 day EMA at 9980 (stopped the Tuesday move)
The 50 day EMA at 10,103
The February/June 2004 down trendline at 10,230
The 200 day SMA at 10,279
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
9900 is some support from the May and July lows.
9783 to 9793, the August lows.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
October 19
Housing Starts, September (8:30): 1898K actual versus 1950K expected and 2020K prior (revised from 2000K)
Building Permits, September (8:30): 2005K actual versus 1950K expected and 1969K prior (revised from 1952K)
CPI, September (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
Core CPI, September (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected and 0.1% prior
October 21
Initial Jobless Claims, 10/16 (8:30): 345K expected and 352K prior
Leading Economic Indicators, September (10:00): -0.1% expected and -0.3% prior
Philadelphia Fed, October (12:00): 18.0 expected and 13.4 prior
THE PLAYS
Good movers Wednesday: BEV; KRY; LIFC; PKD; MSCC; SNDA
Tuesday night play results:
LIFC: Super breakout on strong breakout.
AUDC: Volume faded and it basically went nowhere Wednesday.
MSCC: Started up off the 18 day EMA. Could have used more trade, but was worth starting the position.
New plays for Thursday:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/20/2004
IMOS (Chipmos Technologies--$8.93; -0.05; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imos.html
After Hours: $8.91
STATUS: 200 day SMA test. IMOS is working on the right side of its 10 month base. It has rallied up through the 200 day SMA (8.59) and is moving laterally the past three weeks at that level, consolidating the move from the August lows and setting up for the continued move higher to form its base. As with many chips, it has formed up nicely, and it is in a good risk/reward position here at the 200 day. Money flow is solid, leading higher ahead of price. Nice doji over the 200 day SMA, and looking for a good surge in above average volume to start the play.
Volume: 469.386K Avg Volume: 812.136K
BUY POINT: $9.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$11.85 Stop=$8.94
POSITION: GMQ CB - Mar. $10c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/imos.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
MDCC (Molecular Devices--$24.68; -0.05; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdcc.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. AGYS has set up the current 9 week base over the 50 day EMA (22.99), moving laterally on low volume until this week when volume surged and MDCC moved toward a breakout. This base follows a nice 7 month cup with handle breakout in August. This short consolidation is setting up the next run higher in the breakout move. Outstanding 4 to 0 accumulation in the current base shows all buyers as it took a breather. Money flow is solid and relative strength is ready to make the breakout with the stock.
Volume: 350.501K Avg Volume: 237.909K
BUY POINT: $25.02 Volume=357K Target=$25.45 Stop=$23.98
POSITION: MCQ AE - Jan. $25c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mdcc.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
PETD (Petroleum Development Corp.--$39.29; +2.48; optionable): Oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/petd.html
After Hours: $39.29
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA (37.05). PETD made us some excellent money on its breakout and run in September. It has now tested that run, coming back to the 50 day EMA in the recent oil stock selling, filling the gap as it does. That set the stage for the rebound, and Wednesday PETD jumped off of that level on rising, above average volume. Looking for a move through the 18 day EMA (39.99) on continued strong volume to move into positions.
Volume: 609.755K Avg Volume: 508.136K
BUY POINT: $40.06 Volume=762K Target=$50 Stop=$39.22
POSITION: PHQ AH - Jan. $40c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/petd.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
SYD (Sybron Dental--$32.05; +1.49; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/syd.html
After Hours: $32.06
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Volume exploded Wednesday as SYD jumped out of the handle to its 9 month base. Volume surged, relative strength broke out, and money flow is racing higher. Seems to be hitting on all cylinders. Outstanding 12 to 3 accumulation in the base has set the stage for this breakout. Looking to pick up some shares on a continued breakout move and then some more on a successful test.
Volume: 642.1K Avg Volume: 251.318K
BUY POINT: $32.25 Volume=377K Target=$38 Stop=$31.22
POSITION: SYD AF - Jan. $30c (79 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/syd.html
Play Date: 10/20/2004
SMH (Semiconductor Holders Trust--$31.05; +0.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
After Hours: $31.34
STATUS: Flat base. SMH has moved laterally the past 6 weeks in a trading range between 29.50 and 32. Volume has surged the past two sessions as SMH moved off the bottom of the range, clearing the 50 day EMA (30.94) on the Wednesday close. Volume was tremendous Wednesday. Looking to start positions on a further volume move, anticipating a breakout from the range this time around. Playing options on this one and looking for a 65%ish gain.
Volume: 42.525M Avg Volume: 23.77M
BUY POINT: $31.21 Volume=28M Target=$34 Stop=$30.88
POSITION: SMH AF - Jan. $30c (69 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/smh.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
BR: Trying to make the move off the 50 day EMA.
EBAY: Strong earnings after hours sent it higher.
GTRC: Excellent 7 to 2 accumulation in the 18 week reverse head and shoulders base. Relative strength already breaking out.
MSFT: Volume is up as MSFT starts breaking out of the handle to the 4 month base.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
DITC: Volume surging as it tries to make the breakout from a 10 month base.
CTRP: Volume has surged the past two weeks as it moves toward a new high.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AH 09/08 DB hdl 38.85 -3.67 38.89 44.12 2.2M 1M 41.32
Exited. Tanked below the 50 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
AKAM 10/05 Cup 14.88 -0.24 15.63 18.55 1.6M 3.7M 14.94
Current. Pullback holding above support at 14.50 on lower, below average volume. May test back to support.
ALVR 10/13 DB hdl 14.65 -0.18 15.12 18.15 576K 750K 14.25
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
AMT 09/30 Flat 16.22 -0.04 15.55 18.68 1.4M 1.8M 15.97
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day MVA intraday on lower, below average volume. Testing the breakout.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 9.46 +0.05 8.91 10.72 444K 1.6M 8.93
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. May continue to test the 10 day MVA.
AUDC 10/19 Cup hdl 13.22 +0.12 13.64 16.35 180K 450K 12.69
Buy Not Hit. Continue with uptrend on lower, below average volume.
BEV 10/11 Cup hdl 8.43 +0.36 8.29 10 1.5M 1.1M 7.98
Entered today. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for an explosive move on excellent volume surge.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 29.99 -0.45 28.79 33.54 427K 400K 28.89
Current. Pullback tapping 29.58 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower, but still above average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to the 10 day MVA.
CRZO 10/09 Cup hdl 10.04 +0.24 10.22 12.45 199K 262K 9.63
Buy Not Issued. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for a nice gain on much stronger, but average volume. Looking good.
CVNS 10/13 Cup hdl 11.95 +0.15 12.12 14.75 32K 142K 11.38
Buy Not Hit. Moving up off the 18 day MVA holding at resistance on low volume.
CVS 10/02 Cup hdl 43.23 -0.36 43.58 49.58 1.5M 2.5M 42.48
Current. Gaped down and continued to move down tapping 42.89 intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume.
CYTC 10/04 Flat 27.03 -0.03 25.05 29.58 1M 1.7M 26.88
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on average volume. Testing the breakout.
DOVP 09/30 Cup hdl 17.2 +0.09 17.04 19.95 62K 447K 16.89
Current. Tapped 16.76 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Still in handle.
DRIV 10/09 Cup hdl 30.78 -0.24 31 36 895K 1.1M 29.68
Current. tapped 31.44 at the intraday high, but gave it back showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Still in good shape trading up $1 after hours.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 91.36 -1.09 88.05 99.94 14M 14M 93.25
Current. Gapped down below the 18 day MVA showing a doji on stronger above average volume. Doji may indicate a change in [pattern. Stock is trading up after hours as a result of good earnings.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 91.36 -1.09 71.78 82.25 14M 10M 92.48
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 91.36 -1.09 34.72 46 14M 12M 89.55
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 91.36 -1.09 31.22 46 14M 12M 89.55
Current.
ELGX 08/26 Cup hdl 6.4 -0.01 6.54 7.84 83K 120K 6.48
Current. Pullback testing below the 50 day MVA at support intraday and rallied back on rising, but below average volume. Should be ready for rebound.
ENER 10/11 Cup hdl 18.62 -0.68 16.08 19 409K 200K 18.98
Current. Gapped down at the open filling the gap intraday on stronger above average volume. Holding above support at 18.45. Testing the breakout.
FFIV 10/02 Cup hdl 32.94 +0.49 32.85 38 940K 1.4M 31.88
Current. Continue with uptrend holding at some resistance on slightly above average volume.
FSL 10/20 Test BO 15 +0.25 15.55 18.64 2.6M 2M 14.46
Entered today. Gave us a head fake with a strong volume move early
that shot it past the prior high hit in September.
It reversed almost the entire move. Still looks good
but not happy about that move at all.
HURC 10/12 Test BO 15.12 -0.47 15.76 19 89K 150K 14.97
Current. Tapped 15.55 at the high, but gave it back showing a tight doji on the 10 day MVA on rising, but below average volume. Holding at support. Still in good shape.
IDNX 10/14 Rv H&S 7.1 +0.05 7.24 8.65 617K 1.5M 6.84
Current. Bounced off the 10 day MVA for a nice gain on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
JLG 10/18 Test BO 16.21 +0.12 16.62 20 424K 350K 15.89
Buy Not Issued. Tapped 16.52 at the intraday high, but gave it back holding the 18 day MVA on lower, above average volume. Should be ready for move up after testing the breakout.
KRY 10/20 Test BO 3.72 +0.27 3.64 4.44 2M 675K 3.45
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
LIFC 10/19 Cup hdl 10.84 +0.63 10.75 13 347K 366K 9.99
Entered today. Bounced off the 18 day MVA for a great move on stronger above average volume.
LTD 10/18 Test BO 23.59 -0.06 23.55 27 2.7M 2.2M 22.82
Current. Pullback on slightly above average volume. Still in good shape.
MFE 10/12 Test BO 21.94 -0.41 20.78 24.42 1.1M 1.8M 20.32
Buy Not Issued. Ease back tapping 21.63 at the intraday low and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
MRVC 10/14 Cup 3.26 +0.08 3.21 4.55 934K 1.1M 2.99
Current. Gapped down at the open testing the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, but still above average volume. In good shape.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 15.31 +0.35 15.25 19 362K 1M 14.57
Entered today. Tapped 14.70 at the intraday low and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, below average volume.
ODFL 10/16 Flat 29.41 +0.13 30.28 36 167K 250K 28.36
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back on rising above average volume. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
PER 10/14 Test BO 15.94 +0.24 15.89 19 177K 540K 15.31
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 18 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain on rising, but below average volume. Did not enter the play, because volume was not there.
PKD 10/18 DB hdl 4.09 +0.1 4.09 4.98 379K 300K 3.89
Entered today. Gapped down at the open and rallied back for a nice move on much lower, but very strong volume. Continue with uptrend. Came off the day's high of 4.18.
PMTC 10/04 BO 4.83 -1.04 5.66 6.88 9.2M 1.3M 5.28
Exited. Gapped down at the open and tanked below the 50 day MVA on very strong volume surge.
QCOM 08/31 FlyPlat 43.41 +0.61 38.82 45 12M 11M 40.55
Current. Continue with uptrend on lower, but average volume.
QCOM 08/14 Flat 43.41 +0.61 35.42 40.48 12M 11M 40.55
Current.
SAY 10/16 Cup hdl 25.44 -2.54 27.82 34 1.2M 450K 26.85
Exited. Volatile session. Big gap down holding the 18 day MVA on stronger above average volume.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 8.1 -0.05 5.88 7 600K 635K 7.44
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 30.17 +1.52 31.32 36.85 1.2M 1.2M 31.78
Current. Bounced off the 18 day MVA and rallied back for a nice move on above average volume. Moving up after testing the breakout.
SWKS 10/02 Test 20 10 -0.27 10.55 12.78 5.8M 4.9M 9.98
Current. Gapped down at the open holding above the 18 day MVA as stock filled filling in the gap intraday. Needs to hold the 18 day MVA.
TEO 10/16 Cup hdl 10.4 -0.08 11.12 13.38 270K 285K 10.54
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down tapping 10.19 intraday and rallied back showing a doji on rising above average volume. Needs to rebound from here or will drop.
TTH 10/18 Test BO 29.24 -0.1 30.05 34.55 140K 400K 29.37
Buy Not Hit. Gapped down below the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume holding at some support. May test back to 29.
TV 10/16 Test 18 53.24 -0.37 53.78 61 488K 570K 52.78
Buy Not Issued. Pullback testing the 18 day MVA intraday and rallie holding above the 10 day MVA.
TWTI 09/30 Test BO 8.12 +0.27 6.97 8.32 609K 236K 7.78
Current. Tapped 7.59 at the low and rallied back for a great move on strong volume.
UPCS 10/12 Flat 4.78 -0.04 4.82 5.99 197K 600K 4.49
Current. Tapped 4.90 at the high, but gave it back showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape.
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 22 -0.16 20.44 24.44 5.9M 2.6M 21.48
Current. Gapped up at the open, but gave it all back testing the 10 day MVA intraday holding at some support. Still in good shape. Trading up $1.50 after hours.
WIND 09/30 DB hdl 13.78 -0.01 12.16 14.48 926K 973K 12.45
Current. Tested the 10 day MVA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on lower, but slightly above average volume. Managing to retain its gain.
WWCA 10/11 Cup hdl 28.28 +0.29 28.49 32.88 975K 1.4M 27.58
Buy Not Issued. Tested the 10 day MVA and rallied back on stronger above average volume holding at some resistance.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 25.45 -0.08 26.32 32 334K 525K 25.22
Buy Not Issued. Pullback showing a tight doji on the 18 day MVA on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
Downside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
PTEK 09/27 Put 9.23 -0.02 8.71 7.38 600K 825K 8.76
Tapped 9.48 at the high, but could not hold the gain on rising, but average volume. Still in downtrend.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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