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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Thursday night play results:
AIRT: Surged higher on volume but then reversed the move as the market sold off.
GPN: Gave back the Thursday move on lower volume. Still in good shape to rally.
HHH: Gapped higher but reversed and gave back the move.
LMRA: Turned back but on very low volume.
SHFL: Gapped higher, held some gain, and still looks ready.
New Plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/23/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$55.19; -0.80; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BCR blasted higher on earnings Wednesday after solid results. It eased back in the market selling Friday, but on lower volume and showing a tight doji right on top of the 50 day EMA (54.95). It is trying to make a higher low here at the 50 day as it works on a 19 week trading range between 52 and 58. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buyers during the base. Looking for that strong volume to resume as the stock moves off the 50 day and through the buy point. Strong money flow is still moving higher ahead of price, and we expect BCR to resume the move higher, giving us a higher low and a good entry point toward a new all-time high where there is no resistance and no disgruntled shareholders ready to dump it.
Volume: 703.5K Avg Volume: 653.892K
BUY POINT: $56.22 Volume=981K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: BCR AK - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bcr.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$50.41; -0.02; optionable): Medical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. BDX is testing the 50 day EMA (50.31) in its 24 week base, ready to move higher and complete the right shoulder to the pattern. Accumulation is an outstanding 9 to 2 in the base, telling us that big money was moving in as the stock consolidated. That sets the foundation to breakout. Money flow is strong as well. We are looking to start a position on a strong move off of the 50 day and then again as it breaks through the early October high at 52.85 as it moves toward a new all-time high.
Earnings: 11-4 before the open.
Volume: 587.1K Avg Volume: 934.4K
BUY POINT: $51.75 Volume=1.4M Target=$61.85 Stop=$50.68
POSITION: BDX CJ - Mar. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bdx.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
DUSA (Dusa Pharma--$11.14; +0.35; optionable): Drug manufacturers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dusa.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. DUSA has been working up the 200 day SMA (10.21) the past 4 months, using that key level as support as it makes higher and higher lows below a roughly constant top at 13. A solid 8 month base sporting simply excellent 11 to 2 accumulation as buyers continue to move into the stock. Money flow is strong and continued to rise ahead of price. Friday volume surged as DUSA moved off of the 50 day EMA (10.79).
Earnings: Second week of November.
Volume: 323.092K Avg Volume: 138.361K
BUY POINT: $12.29 Volume=208K Target=$14.88 Stop=$11.55
POSITION: FDU AV - Jan. $12.50c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dusa.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
HTCH (Hutchinson Technology--$32.29; -0.30; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/htch.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. HTCH exploded higher to start the month, forming the right side of its 10 month pattern as it upped its earnings expectations for the quarter. After the powerful move that week it has eased back to the 18 day EMA (31.74) on very light, below average volume. Excellent money flow is leading the way higher even as the stock eases back to make this test and form the handle to its base. Solid 9 to 6 accumulation in the base shows net buyers and sets the foundation for the breakout. Want to see that volume jump back up above average as it makes the breakout move from the pattern.
Earnings: 11-1
Volume: 326.447K Avg Volume: 527.198K
BUY POINT: $33.68 Volume=791K Target=$40 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: UTQ AF - Jan. $30c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/htch.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
NCR (NCR Corp.--$53.27; -0.14; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. NCR gapped out of a nice 13 week cup with handle base two weeks back, blasting higher on tremendous volume. It continued the rally up to 55 and then eased back last week to test the breakout. Volume started to back off as it slipped back toward the 10 day EMA (52.77), refusing to sell hard as much of the market sold off. The excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the pattern is one reason; a lot of buyers during the short base did not want to sell their shares. Money flow remains strong and relative strength broke out on the move, a good indication of the stock's strength. Looking for it to fully test the 10 day EMA and then rebound on rising trade for our entry point. The first test of a breakout is one of our favorite buy points as it shows the breakout was for real as the buyers return to pick up even more shares.
Earnings: 11-28
Volume: 497.9K Avg Volume: 625K
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=725K Target=$62.35 Stop=$52.68
POSITION: NCR AK - Jan. $55c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncr.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
QTWW (Quantum Fuel Sys.--$7.14; +0.11; optionable): Fuel cell technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qtww.html
STATUS: Cup. QTWW is a relatively young stock, a new issue in Q3 2002. It is working on a nice 10 month base that started this year. It broke over the 200 day SMA (6.59) two weeks back on a strong volume surge, and has spent the past four sessions moving laterally, holding onto that breakout over key resistance. Strong 9 to 4 accumulation in the base just as it starts building the right side of the pattern. Money flow is strong as well, leading higher ahead of price. Friday volume jumped well above average as QTWW jumped off the 200 day. It could not hold the entire move, fading some as the market sold. Still in excellent position to continue the move. Solid and in the right sector.
Volume: 484.545K Avg Volume: 232.64K
BUY POINT: $7.45 Volume=349K Target=$9.97 Stop=$6.97
POSITION: TQD AU - Jan. $7.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qtww.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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