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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: HMX; KOOL; TZOO
Best Plays:
1) ARTC: Looks ready to continue the breakout move.
2) XLNX: Has tested the break over the down trendline.
3) WHT: Breaking out on strong volume.
4) ISSX: Starting higher on strong volume.
5) NCR: Excellent doji at the 10 day EMA.
6) SGMS: Volume is surging as it moves toward the breakout.
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 10/25/2004
ARTC (Arthrocare--$29.98; +0.48; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/artc.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume exploded higher last Wednesday as ARTC surged out of a 16 week cup with handle base. In the subsequent market selling it eased back on lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (28.98) on the Monday low and then rebounding to post a gain. Strong 5 to 2 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers, setting the foundation for a breakout and run higher. Money flow is strong and relative strength broke out and is ready to move higher again, a bullish indication for the stock.
Earnings: Announced 10-19
Volume: 385.227K Avg Volume: 402.772K
BUY POINT: $30.32 Volume=550K Target=$35 Stop=$28.87
POSITION: ARU CF - Mar. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/artc.html
Play Date: 10/25/2004
DRAX (Draxis Health--$4.85; +0.20; no options): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drax.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume jumped Monday as DRAX started to move toward a breakout from its 7 month base formed along the 200 day SMA (4.39). Excellent 9 to 3 accumulation has set up the breakout move with surging money flow moving higher ahead of price.
Volume: 206.979K Avg Volume: 120.136K
BUY POINT: $5.05 Volume=200K Target=$6.12 Stop=$4.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/drax.html
Play Date: 10/25/2004
XLNX (Xilinx--$29.20; +0.44; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
STATUS: Trend gap reversal. XLNX has trended lower since January, but last Thursday gapped through the down trendline on strong volume. In the ensuing market selling it tested back, tapping the down trendline on the Monday low (28.53) and then rebounding. We are looking to pick up shares after this test of the break over the trendline, looking for volume to surge back in as it does. Another one of the semiconductors showing a solid building pattern that can make us some nice money. Looking primarily at options to give us better leverage.
Earnings: Announced October 21.
Volume: 6.663M Avg Volume: 7.126M
BUY POINT: $29.78 Volume=10M Target=$34 Stop=$28.32
POSITION: XLQ AY - Jan. $27.50c (77 delta) or XLQ AF - Jan. $30c (43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xlnx.html
Play Date: 10/25/2004
WHT (Wheaton River Minerals--$3.38; +0.16; no options): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wht.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. WHT started the breakout move Monday, gapping out of its 7 month base on a strong volume surge. Excellent 8 to 2 accumulation in the base (8 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows strong accumulation during the base as money moved in. Relative strength broke out on the move, a good corroboration of the stock's strength. Looking for a continued move on solid trade to move into positions.
Volume: 5.408M Avg Volume: 2.989M
BUY POINT: $3.42 Volume=4.5M Target=$4.12 Stop=$3.18
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wht.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/23/2004
CNCT (Connetics--$28.03; +0.43; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnct.html
STATUS: Flat base. Volume jumped Monday as CNCT gapped higher on solid earnings news. It was not the greatest market to support a strong move, but given that CNCT tested lower and rallied back to hold its move, it looks ready to show us a solid breakout move. Nice 13 week flat pattern that is trading between 26 on the low (50 day EMA at 26.10) and 28 on the high. This pattern formed after a solid breakout from the February to July base. Accumulation in the current base is a solid 3 to 1 and it formed over the 50 day EMA, both showing the stock has strong institutional interest. Money flow is solid and relative strength is moving higher for a breakout. Looks ready for the move.
Volume: 1.206M Avg Volume: 618.818K
BUY POINT: $28.56 Volume=750K Target=$34 Stop=$27.88
POSITION: UXU AE - Jan. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cnct.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
HTCH (Hutchinson Technology--$32.3; +0.01; optionable): Data storage devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/htch.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working in a very nice handle to its base, volume edging higher toward average Tuesday as the stock traded in a narrow range. HTCH exploded higher to start the month, forming the right side of its 10 month pattern as it upped its earnings expectations for the quarter. After the powerful move that week it has eased back to the 18 day EMA (31.60) on very light, below average volume. Excellent money flow is leading the way higher even as the stock eases back to make this test and form the handle to its base. Solid 9 to 6 accumulation in the base shows net buyers and sets the foundation for the breakout. Now we just need to see the breakout move.
Earnings: 11-1
Volume: 430.586K Avg Volume: 522.863K
BUY POINT: $33.68 Volume=791K Target=$40 Stop=$31.97
POSITION: UTQ AF - Jan. $30c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/htch.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
ISSX (Internet Security System--$18.95; +0.5; optionable): Security software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/issx.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume jumped Friday as ISSX tried the breakout move from its 10 month cup with handle. Excellent 15 to 6 accumulation in the pattern shows a lot of buyers picking up the stock. Solid earnings after hours. The stock initially sold off and then rebounded. We will see if the stock can give us the breakout move Tuesday following the earnings.
Volume: 1.897M Avg Volume: 831.454K
BUY POINT: $19.05 Volume=1.3M Target=$23 Stop=$17.88
POSITION: ISU AW - Jan. $17.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/issx.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
NCR (NCR Corp.--$52.96; -0.31; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Still making the nice, low volume test of the breakout from the two weeks back from its nice 13 week cup with handle base. After rallying to 55 it has eased back on the test. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the pattern. Money flow remains strong and relative strength broke out on the move, a good indication of the stock's strength. It has now tested the 10 day EMA fully, showing a nice tight doji at that level. Looking for volume to rebound on the rebound.
Earnings: 11-28
Volume: 472.5K Avg Volume: 673.227K
BUY POINT: $54.05 Volume=725K Target=$62.35 Stop=$52.68
POSITION: NCR AK - Jan. $55c (40 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncr.html
Play Date: 10/23/2004
NVTL (Novatel Wireless--$24.57; +0.27; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvtl.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Volume remained light as NVTL tapped the 10 day EMA (23.76) on the Monday low and rebounded for a slight gain. Holding up very well in a nice, orderly pattern sporting strong 10 to 5 accumulation. It formed along the 50 day EMA, a sign of strength as institutions supported it at that level. Still ready for a strong upside breakout.
Volume: 998.018K Avg Volume: 1.504M
BUY POINT: $25.88 Volume=2.2M Target=$31 Stop=$24.88
POSITION: NVU CE - Mar. $25c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvtl.html
Play Date: 10/06/2004
SGMS (Scientific Games--$20.11; +1.02; optionable): Gaming devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgms.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume surged Monday as SGMS surged late toward the breakout from its 7 month, nicely formed base with excellent 9 to 3 accumulation.
Volume: 1.121M Avg Volume: 570.863K
BUY POINT: $20.12 Volume=650K Target=$24 Stop=$19.05
POSITION: TUJ AD - Jan. $20c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sgms.html
Others still ready:
BEIQ
CMTL
VION
PFCB
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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