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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: COST; EXBD; EXPD; FINL; GD; MBT; MCO; RAE; SHFL; TZOO
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/26/2004
CAKE (Cheesecake Factory--$43.3; +0.31; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cake.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. CAKE is working on an 8 month base. It is moving up and forming the right side of the base, surging last week off the 200 day SMA (42.58) on tremendous volume. It has eased back this week to test the breakout over that level. Tuesday it tapped the 200 day on the low and rebounded on rising, average volume. Solid 9 to 6 accumulation in the base is setting up the breakout. Looking for volume to continue to rise as the stock moves through the buy point.
Volume: 510.971K Avg Volume: 561.077K
BUY POINT: $43.75 Volume=725K Target=$49 Stop=$42.44
POSITION: CFQ AH - Jan. $40c (87 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cake.html
Play Date: 10/26/2004
CLE (Claires Stores--$25.57; +0.65; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cle.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CLE broke out from a 9 month cup with handle base in mid-August. After that move it has worked laterally between 24 and 26, consolidating the breakout over the last 10 weeks. Volume shot higher Tuesday as CLE moved off the 50 day EMA (24.55). Strong money flow is leading the stock higher and relative strength is making the breakout, a strong indication that CLE will follow it higher.
Volume: 915.3K Avg Volume: 579.17K
BUY POINT: $25.89 Volume=650K Target=$31 Stop=$24.52
POSITION: CLE BE - Feb. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cle.html
Play Date: 10/26/2004
WOOF (VCA Antech--$21.25; -0.05; optionable): Vet stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/woof.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged last week as WOOF rallied off the 200 day SMA (19.13) to form the right side of its 16 week base. The base formed over the 200 day SMA (19.13), an important institutional support level. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price even as the stock tests back on lower volume this week, forming the handle to the base. Accumulation is a strong 6 to 3 in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 3 down price weeks on rising volume), setting the stage for the breakout. Want to see volume jump back up as it makes the breakout move.
Volume: 856.432K Avg Volume: 751.272K
BUY POINT: $21.92 Volume=900K Target=$26 Stop=$20.84
POSITION: QWF CD - Mar. $20c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/woof.html
New buy point on a continuing play:
Play Date: 10/14/2004
RIMM (Research in Motion--$86.09; +1.62; optionable): Instant messaging devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. RIMM surged higher last week on strong, above average volume. It is making a very nice, orderly breakout test, holding the 10 day EMA (84.09) on the test. The stock tends to rebound from this level. Just looking for volume to surge with the stock to give us another buy point to average up into a solid winner.
Volume: 7.244M Avg Volume: 7.947M
BUY POINT: New positions: $86.88 (orig. positions: $79.78) Volume=13M Target=New positions: $100 (orig. positions: $87) Stop=$83.32
POSITION: RUP AQ - Jan. $85c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rimm.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 10/25/2004
ADI (Analog Devices--$38.84; -0.2; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adi.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume continued to decline as ADI tapped the 50 day EMA (38.37) on the session low and rebounded for a modest loss. A very nice test of the break over the 50 day last week on that strong volume surge. Solid money flow is still moving higher ahead of price. Waiting for volume to return as the stock surges back up through the buy point.
Earnings: 11-23
Volume: 2.604M Avg Volume: 4.843M
BUY POINT: $40.15 Volume=6.5M Target=$46 Stop=$39.44
POSITION: ADI AH - Jan. $40c (44 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adi.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
BSC: Tentative date: 12-15-04
CME: Forecast 10-26-04 before the open.
DGX: No announcement 10-25-04 before the open. Tested the 200 day and rebounded. Looking for a breakout as it continues higher.
EXBD: No announcement 10-26 but a blast higher on tremendous earnings.
EXPD: Forecast 11-2.
GD: No forecast with earnings on 10-20-04. Nice recovery underway.
GPN: Forecast early November.
KMRT: Forecast 11-15-04.
MBT: Researching next date.
MCO: Forecast 10-27-04 before the open. Strong surge to open the play.
NFX: New information. Forecast 10-28-04.
NMGA: Forecast 12-1-04
ROP: 10-28-04 after the close.
SBUX: Forecast 11-10 after the close with earnings.
SCSC: Forecast 10-28-04
VIP: Researching date.
WWY: No announcement 10-26-04. Beat the street on earnings, revenues and rallied on strong trade.
WYNN: Early November
XRAY: No announcement 10-26-04 after the close. Was trading lower, but very volatile after hours.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 10/26/2004
VIP (Vimple Communication--$108.72; +2.65; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
BACKGROUND: No splits in its past, and a foreign stock as well. That does not mean it won't split, but it is harder to predict. What we do like is the pattern and its leadership status; it can make us nice gains without announcing a split, and when it comes, all the better.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
STATUS: Test breakout. VIP surged to end September, stalling at 115 when the market ran out of gas. It has made a lower volume and orderly test of the 50 day EMA (104), moving laterally over that level the past week. A very nice test with strong money flow and solid accumulation in the prior 25 week base. Looking for volume to surge as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 278.2K Avg Volume: 427.67K
BUY POINT: $110.12 Volume=500K Target=$120 Stop=$108.22
POSITION: VIP AB - Jan. $110c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vip.html
Current Plays:
Play Date: 10/12/2004
ROP (Roper Industries--$60.8; +0.35; optionable): Energy systems and controls, etc. Forecast to announce a split on 10-28-04 after the market closes in conjunction with earnings or on 11-19-04 in conjunction with board meeting.
BACKGROUND: Last split its stock 2 for 1 in 1997 at a price of $50.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rop.html
STATUS: Breakout test. ROP surged out of a short 13 week base in earl October, blasting higher on strong volume. It has since come back to test the move, holding the 18 day EMA (60.09) on lower, below average volume. It tapped at that level the past two sessions on the low, rebounding to close. Money flow remains super. Just want to see volume rally as it moves through the buy point; that has been the one thing lacking.
Volume: 105.4K Avg Volume: 149.272K
BUY POINT: New: $60.98 (orig. $60.76) Volume=217K Target=$69 Stop=$59.22
POSITION: ROP BL - Feb. $60c (64 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/rop.html
Play Date: 09/21/2004
SBUX (Starbucks--$50.51; +0.85; optionable): High priced coffee. Forecast to announce a split on 11-10-04 in conjunction with earnings.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2 for 1 split on 3-20 -01 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $44. Prior to that announced a 2 for 1 split on 2-23-99 in conjunction with its annual shareholder meeting. The stock price was $50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 3-30-04 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sbux.html
STATUS: Breakout test. SBUX looks ready for the next move higher. It broke out from its 11 week base 8 sessions back, surging on strong volume. It has moved laterally the past week on lower, below average volume, testing the move. Tuesday volume jumped back up to average as SBUX moved off the 10 day EMA (49.63) test. Excellent base, breakout, and solid test. Looking for volume to run higher once more as it continues the move. This is where we average up into a winner with more positions.
Volume: 3.051M Avg Volume: 3.245M
BUY POINT: New: $50.95 (orig. $46.53) Volume=5M Target=New positions ($60; orig. positions: $51.75) Stop=$49.36
POSITION: SQX AJ - Jan. $50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sbux.html
Play Date: 10/14/2004
WYNN (Wynn Resorts--$55.2; +1.25; optionable): Gaming activities. Forecast to announce a split in early November; still pinpointing the date.
BACKGROUND: A new issue in late 2002, WYNN has announced no splits. It has moved into a range that many stocks in its sector have announced their stock splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wynn.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. WYNN looks ready for the next buy, starting higher Tuesday after a 4 week lateral move in a narrow range between 52 and 54. This flying plateau follows the strong September breakout from a 12 week cup with handle base. Money flow is turning higher ahead of the stock and relative strength is ready for the breakout. Very solid, but needs to show some strong volume once more on the break higher.
Volume: 528.526K Avg Volume: 604.323K
BUY POINT: New: $55.45 (orig. $54.24) Volume=832K Target=$63 Stop=$51.65
POSITION: UQY CK - Mar. $55c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wynn.html
POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 10/23/2004
BCR (C.R. Bard--$56.04; +1.17; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. A solid move Tuesday, but not a lot of volume behind it. Still BCR is moving toward the breakout on solid trade the past week. It shot higher on earnings Wednesday after solid results. It eased back in the market selling Friday, but on lower volume and showing a tight doji right on top of the 50 day EMA (54.99). Making a higher low here at the 50 day. The base sports excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing a lot of buyers during the base. Strong money flow is still moving higher ahead of price, and we expect BCR to resume the move higher, giving us a higher low and a good entry point toward a new all-time high where there is no resistance and no disgruntled shareholders ready to dump it.
Volume: 648.9K Avg Volume: 616.272K
BUY POINT: $56.22 Volume=981K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: BCR AK - Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcr.html
Play Date: 10/13/2004
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$27.06; +0.66; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CMTL continues to form the handle on low volume, hugging the 18 day EMA (26.68) as it works to complete its 10 month base. Excellent accumulation and surging money flow is pointing the way for the stock. Volume has been low and it needs to jack up when CMTL blasts through the buy point.
Volume: 164.161K Avg Volume: 260.938K
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=404K Target=$34 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: CQH AE - Jan. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmtl.html
Play Date: 10/11/2004
GGG (Graco--$33.97; +0.16; optionable): Machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ggg.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Volume surged the past two sessions as GGG holds at the 18 day EMA (33.95), showing a nice, tight doji at that level. Looking for this strong volume to send GGG higher on the continuation of the breakout move.
Volume: 283K Avg Volume: 233.136K
BUY POINT: $34.42 Volume=300K Target=$38.55 Stop=$33.83
POSITION: GGG BG - Feb. $35c (41 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ggg.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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