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stock ticker, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ECIL; HDTV; MINI; SIMG; VRSN
Thursday night play results:
DHB: Tried to continue the rally but gave it back and more. Took the day off.
NSS: Gapped higher but then sold back all session. Still ready to move.
RDEN: Continued the lateral move at 24.
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/06/2004
CTXS (Citrix Systems--$23.56; -0.04; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctxs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. CTXS is holding over the 18 day EMA (22.66) as it tests back to that support level to form the handle to its 13 month base. The handle is where the stock loses some upside momentum it had as it rallied off of its lows, making the less committed holders nervous that it is not going to recover the old highs where they bought in. Thus the sell out. When they are gone the stock is free of the last sellers. Solid 15 to 11 accumulation in the base (15 up price weeks on rising volume to 11 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers moving in to the stock. In addition, money flow is moving higher head of price. This was one of the movers and shakers in the pre-bust boom, but unlike many, it has a solid business. Looking for it to finish this handle sometime this week and then break higher on volume. That is when we move in.
Volume: 2.643M Avg Volume: 2.104M
BUY POINT: $24.35 Volume=3.2M Target=$29.44 Stop=$23.15
POSITION: XSQ CX - Mar. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ctxs.html
Play Date: 11/06/2004
OPEN (Open Solutions--$27.94; +0.12; no options): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/open.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issue in late 2003, OPEN broke out from its first base in October. A 7 month flat base sporting excellent 11 to 3 accumulation that set up the breakout and subsequent run. It has moved laterally the past 5 weeks, holding the breakout. It is trying to make a higher low at the 18 day EMA (27.10), and that is typically what happens before the breakout move over resistance at 28. Strong money flow is getting stronger, rallying higher as the stock moves laterally.
Volume: 157.853K Avg Volume: 226.783K
BUY POINT: $28.68 Volume=340K Target=$34.55 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/open.html
Play Date: 11/06/2004
PAAS (Pan American Silver--$17.85; +0.6; optionable): Silver mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/paas.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Metals are starting to form up yet again, and volume jumped Friday as PAAS moved toward the breakout from the handle to its 7 month base. Strong 8 to 3 accumulation in the base shows heavy buying as the stock used the 200 day SMA (15.09) on the lows as support. Excellent pattern and want to see more volume as PAAS rallies through the breakout point.
Volume: 1.334M Avg Volume: 827.93K
BUY POINT: $18.19 Volume=1.2M Target=$23 Stop=$16.92
POSITION: USP DW - Apr. $17.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/paas.html
Play Date: 11/06/2004
VLTR (Volterra Semiconductor--$18.60; +1.26; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vltr.html
STATUS: Breakout test. A new issued in July, VLTR formed its first base in September and October, breaking out in late October. It peaked last week and started moving laterally on much lower volume. Friday volume exploded higher and VLTR started the next move. It closed well off the high but held a gain. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and relative strength is already making the breakout. Despite the pullback off the high Friday, it looks ready to continue the breakout move.
Volume: 717.675K Avg Volume: 145.145K
BUY POINT: $18.73 Volume=218K Target=$22.48 Stop=$17.42
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/vltr.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
EBAY: A tough close to the week with Wednesday and Friday selling on rising volume. A bit winded here. Want it to hold the 18 day EMA for our most recent positions.
QCOM: Holding at the September low after gapping down on earnings news. It is holding key support; needs to rebound here and recover the 50 day EMA (39.86).
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
KNGT: Breaking higher from a 4 week lateral move. Has already made a strong run after the July breakout and needs a 50 day EMA test somewhere in here. That would be the better entry point in our estimation.
SUNW: Gapped higher Friday, showing strong volume Thursday and Friday last week. Moving up and forming the right side of its 9 month base.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock ticker
stock recommendation
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