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us stock market, stock watch
Begin part 2 of 2
We apologize for the late delivery. Again, the flu or stomach virus has hit several staff; need to watch those staff get togethers. Again we apologize for the delay.
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: AMT; ASPM; OPTV; MRVC; PETM; VRSN
Wednesday night play results:
ATSN: High volume, but could not make the breakout stick.
KFY: Still forming the handle.
ROV: Started higher, but we held off as it could not make much headway. Still solid.
New plays for Friday:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/18/2004
NXTL (Nextel--$28.43; +0.19; optionable): Wireless communications
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nxtl.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume was up Wednesday a s NXTL started the breakout move from its 11 month base. Solid 11 to 8 accumulation in the pattern shows net buyers and sets up the breakout move. Volume faded Thursday as the stock edged higher in an uncertain market. A solid base, and looking for volume to turn back up the heat as it continues to move higher.
Volume: 5.676M Avg Volume: 8.768M
BUY POINT: $28.62 Volume=12M Target=$34 Stop=$27.42
POSITION: FQC BE - Feb. $25c (97 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nxtl.html
Play Date: 11/18/2004
RMBS (Rambus--$21.48; +0.36; optionable): Semiconductor memory chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rmbs.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. RMBS surged through the 200 day SMA (20.01) Tuesday, continuing a strong break higher from the prior week. Volume exploded on the move and has now backed off as it comes back to test the move over the 200 day. It may come back to test the 200 day fully but it was starting back up Thursday after gapping lower. Looking for it to move higher from here on volume, and we will step in as it does. Money flow is screaming higher, and we are ready for RMBS to follow it further.
Volume: 3.094M Avg Volume: 2.287M
BUY POINT: $22.05 Volume=4M Target=$26.85 Stop=$20.51
POSITION: BNQ BX - Feb. $22.50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rmbs.html
Play Date: 11/18/2004
STSI (Star Scientific--$6.06; +0.47; no options): Tobacco research for a safer product.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stsi.html
STATUS: Double bottom. We have looked at STSI before and it is always a bit volatile. It can make some great moves, however, and we really like the current base that has set up, a 9 week pattern that formed over the 50 day EMA (5.26) an important support level. Volume surged Thursday on good news for the sector, and STSI jumped off the 10 day EMA (5.59). Money flow is shooting higher ahead of price, and it looks as if STSI is ready to make a breakout move.
Volume: 2.979M Avg Volume: 623.296K
BUY POINT: $6.18 Volume=800K Target=$7.45 Stop=$5.75
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/stsi.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
EASI: Trying to break higher but not much volume to push it Thursday.
GTRC: Easing back to test the 10 day EMA on low volume, setting up a higher low and a breakout to a new high.
MSFT: Nice low volume fade after the strong move. Very nice pullback.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
SWIR: Broke over the 50 day EMA Wednesday on volume. Looks to be forming the head of a reverse head and shoulders base.
CHKP: Volume break higher Thursday in what is basically a double bottom with handle base.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet.
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address: http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AEP 10/26 Cup hdl 34.19 -0.01 33.95 39.22 1.3M 1.2M 34.38
Exited.
AMT 09/30 Flat 18.2 +0.48 15.55 18.68 1.1M 1.8M 17.58
Current.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 10.74 +0.05 8.91 10.72 553K 1.6M 10.68
Current.
APOG 10/26 DB hdl 14.76 +0.01 13.58 16.32 47K 140K 15.21
Current.
ASPM 11/15 Test BO 21.73 +0.44 21.25 25.32 202K 150K 19.89
Current.
ATSN 11/17 Cup hdl 9.95 0 10.25 12.25 624K 543K 9.68
Buy Not Hit.
BDX 10/23 Rv H&S 54.25 -0.39 51.82 61.85 706K 1.4M 52.89
Current.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 36.66 -0.12 28.79 33.54 202K 400K 35.55
Current.
CEC 11/03 Cup hdl 39.48 -0.59 39.57 45.49 173K 364K 32.22
Current.
CTXS 11/06 Cup hdl 24.89 +0.22 24.89 30 2.8M 3.2M 23.97
Entered today.
DHB 11/04 DB hdl 18.85 +0.47 16.75 20.55 1.2M 1.7M 17.89
Current.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 110.5 +1.13 88.05 99.94 7.7M 14M 103.45
Current.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 110.5 +1.13 71.78 82.25 7.7M 10M 101.75
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 110.5 +1.13 34.72 46 7.7M 12M 101.75
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 110.5 +1.13 31.22 46 7.7M 12M 101.75
Current.
ECL 10/25 Test BO 35.13 +0.28 33.62 38.62 591K 1M 34.32
Current.
FFIV 10/02 Cup hdl 42.41 +0.23 32.85 38 560K 1.4M 42.24
Current.
FSL 10/20 Test BO 17.6 -0.35 15.55 18.64 1.8M 2M 17.25
Current.
HAE 11/03 Test 50 34.85 +0.05 33.58 39 147K 190K 33.89
Current.
HDTV 11/16 Test BO 7.62 +0.02 7.78 9.35 524K 1M 7.29
Buy Not Issued.
HLIT 11/09 DB hdl 8.12 -0.15 8.98 11 889K 1.5M 8.47
Buy Not Hit.
INTL 11/13 Cup hdl 28.79 -0.91 29.55 34.55 437K 384K 28.05
Current.
INTV 11/17 Cup hdl 13 +0.2 13.21 16.38 394K 570K 12.29
Current.
IWOV 11/11 Test 20 10.09 -0.07 10.36 12.65 323K 495K 9.78
Current.
JLG 10/18 Test BO 19.06 -1.02 16.79 20.15 831K 350K 19.05
Current.
JNPR 10/27 DB hdl 28.77 +0.05 26.13 30 5.3M 11M 27.12
Current.
KEY 10/25 DB hdl 33.66 -0.34 33.17 37.55 960K 1.5M 33.62
Current.
KFY 11/17 DB hdl 18.52 -0.08 19.45 23.65 236K 448K 18.58
Buy Not Hit.
KLIC 11/15 Test 50 7.6 -0.01 7.35 9.25 1.7M 1.4M 7.38
Current.
KOMG 11/09 Rv H&S 16.36 -0.39 17.01 20.62 415K 675K 15.82
Current.
LCAV 11/13 Rv H&S 32.73 -0.57 31.75 37.65 161K 346K 31.97
Current.
LIZ 10/25 Test BO 41.72 +0.01 39.41 43.42 435K 881K 40.55
Current.
LTD 10/18 Test BO 27.05 -0.05 23.55 27 6.8M 2.2M 26.88
Current.
MACE 11/16 Cup hdl 5.37 +0.05 5.82 7.08 678K 2.8M 5.41
Buy Not Hit.
MEDX 11/16 Cup hdl 10.54 +0.18 10.72 12.85 4.4M 1.5M 9.97
Current.
MINI 10/27 DB hdl 32 -0.38 28.65 34.42 54K 153K 31.15
MRVC 10/14 Cup 4.06 +0.16 3.21 4.55 1.1M 1.1M 3.64
Current.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 16.46 -0.85 15.25 19 1.5M 1M 15.94
Current.
NTAP 10/30 Cup hdl 29.91 +0.34 25.67 30.32 8M 5.5M 28.97
Current.
OPTV 11/10 Cup 3.83 +0.18 3.75 4.75 1.2M 650K 3.57
Current.
ORB 11/10 DB hdl 12.52 -0.13 12.69 15.21 608K 600K 12.11
Current.
PAAS 11/06 Cup hdl 17.88 -0.69 18.19 23 1.1M 1.2M 16.92
Buy Not Issued.
PER 10/14 Test BO 16.67 -0.13 16.39 19.55 214K 540K 16.11
Current.
PETM 10/27 Cup hdl 35.45 +3.25 31.75 38.95 6.1M 2.4M 33.25
PWAV 11/15 Cup 8.15 -0.01 8.18 10 1.9M 1.9M 7.78
Buy Not Hit.
QSFT 11/15 Test BO 15.76 -0.19 16.15 19.32 487K 1.2M 15.25
Buy Not Hit.
ROV 11/17 DB hdl 29.13 +0.13 29.17 35 448K 450K 28.12
Buy Not Issued.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 9.01 +0.01 5.88 7 266K 635K 8.78
Current.
SIMG 10/30 Cup hdl 16.54 +0.14 14.19 17.22 682K 1.5M 15.05
Current.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 36.87 +0.25 31.32 36.85 388K 1.2M 37.42
Current.
SYMM 11/11 Cup hdl 10.16 -0.41 10.27 12.38 362K 399K 10.32
Current.
TV 10/16 Test 18 59.23 +0.5 55.35 62.55 195K 570K 56.15
VLTR 11/06 Test BO 23.69 +0.3 18.73 22.48 182K 218K 22.25
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 32.96 +1.47 20.44 24.44 5.8M 2.6M 29.97
Current.
WIND 11/13 Test BO 14.34 -0.12 14.68 17.95 463K 775K 13.78
Current.
XXIA 11/11 Cup hdl 12.58 -0.4 13.55 16.25 390K 417K 12.61
Buy Not Hit.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 29.86 +0.24 26.46 32 654K 525K 27.95
Current.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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