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Begin part 2 of 2
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: DHB; STSI; SYMM
Thursday night play results:
NXTL: Pulled back form the breakout move on rising though still below average volume. Still in the pattern.
RMBS: Testing the surge over the 200 day SMA, easing back on low volume. Good sign.
STSI: Solid price and volume move as the break higher continues
New plays for Monday:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/20/2004
MONE (Matrixone--$6.58; -0.10; no options): Product lifecycle management systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mone.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. MONE is forming a handle to its 8 month base, the last 4.5 months consisting of a reverse head and shoulders base. It worked laterally last week on mostly lower volume as the 10 day EMA (6.38) rises up to meet it. Excellent 12 to 3 accumulation in base, setting up the foundation for the breakout. Money flow continues to surge ahead of price, and we are looking for the stock to follow it this week.
Volume: 408.138K Avg Volume: 353.317K
BUY POINT: $6.82 Volume=530K Target=$8.48 Stop=$6.36
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mone.html
Play Date: 11/20/2004
NFLD (Northfield Labs--$15.75; +0.04; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nfld.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Biotechs were hit hard Friday, but NFLD did not notice as it continued the work on its very nice handle to its 7.5 month base. Indeed, NFLD held the 10 day EMA (15.68) again after the two week pullback following the strong surge to start the month. A nice base that has used the 200 day SMA (13.25) on the low as support, a key institutional support level. Money flow is strong, moving higher ahead of price even as it forms the handle. The handle is where the last sellers are shaken out as they get frustrated that the stock has failed to continue the move higher after nearing the prior high. Volume started higher Friday as NFLD moved off the 10 day EMA, and we will look for more as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 280.818K Avg Volume: 206.454K
BUY POINT: $16.48 Volume=300K Target=$19.85 Stop=$15.55
POSITION: DHQ BC - Feb. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nfld.html
Play Date: 11/20/2004
SLR (Solectron--$5.99; -0.18; optionable): Printed circuit board
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slr.html
STATUS: Test breakout. SLR surged Wednesday with the market, jumping off the 10 day EMA (5.87) on strong trade. Friday it faded with the market, but volume remained well below average, indicating few sellers. It has formed a nice 19 week cup with handle that is part of a larger 10 month double bottom base. Accumulation in the recent pattern is an excellent 6 to 2, showing net buyers and setting up the breakout move. The test has been good given the strong market selling Friday with money flow remaining solid as the stock makes this modest pullback. Looking for that volume to come back in on the move through the buy point though it may fully test the 10 day EMA (5.87) before it starts the move. Either way, want to see that volume rebound on the move through the buy point.
Volume: 3.038M Avg Volume: 4.131M
BUY POINT: $6.28 Volume=5.2M Target=$7.55 Stop=$5.85
POSITION: SLR DA - Apr. $5c (88 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/slr.html
Continuing that look ready to go:
Play Date: 10/14/2004
MRVC (MRV Communications--$3.94; -0.12; no options): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvc.html
STATUS: Test breakout. MRVC is giving us another test of the solid move thus far as it works up the right side of its 11 month cup with handle base. While the big name chips are struggling to recover and were under pressure Friday, MRVC was fairly calms easing back on low, below average volume. It is the smaller, lesser known names in the sector that are posting the best patterns and gains. Excellent action with money flow still surging higher ahead of price. May come back to fully test the 10 day EMA (3.84) before starting the rebound, but if we see volume jump as it starts back up from here we will look to add poisitons.
Volume: 930.891K Avg Volume: 931.954K
BUY POINT: New positions: 4.05 (orig. positions: $3.21 Volume=1.1M Target=New positions: $5.00 (orig. positions: $4.55) Stop=$3.74
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mrvc.html
Play Date: 11/11/2004
XXIA (Ixia--$12.52; -0.06; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xxia.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. XXIA continues to work on the handle to its 10 month base, ignoring the chip equipment downgrades and other flux in techs. In fact it showed a doji Friday on the 18 day EMA (12.41) as volume remained low. This is just the action you want to see in the handle as the stock tests back to near support, shaking out the last sellers. Strong 10 to 5 accumulation has set up the base, showing net buyers as it consolidated. Money flow is still screaming higher, and we are looking for XXIA to follow it shortly.
Volume: 272.896K Avg Volume: 283.938K
BUY POINT: $13.55 Volume=417K Target=$16.25 Stop=$12.61
POSITION: UJC BV - Feb. $12.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/xxia.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
JNPR: After this test of the 10 day EMA, it may be ready to rally again.
QCOM: Gapped higher Friday, but fell back to the 18 day EMA and 50 day EMA on low volume. After this test it could be ready for new buys if it shows some upside volume.
SUBSCRIBER WATCHLIST
We continually receive ideas for potential plays from subscribers. Many times they are already on our watchlists, other times not. We always take a look and sometimes find a gem or two, or more. We don't necessarily endorse these, but want to provide a forum for subscribers with ideas that may appeal to other subscribers. We may just put on the ticker or we might describe our thoughts as to why or why not we think it is a buy or sell. This is a way we can all learn a bit more and maybe find a few more candidates to make us some good money.
Upside:
MCRL: Rallied to the 200 day SMA last week but then folded at that level Friday. Volume was not high at all as it sold, however, and this test could reset the stock for another run at the 200 day.
WSSI: A new issue in September, WSSI shot higher to start this month. It has moved laterally the past two weeks over the 18 day EMA, consolidating and setting up the next move.
CONTINUING PLAYS
* * SPREADSHEET DOWNLOAD * * *
The following link is to a spreadsheet download of the continuing play table. It will allow subscribers to sort the data for your personal investment use. This is a service to our subscribers only, and no other use of the information is authorized. Simply click on the link, enter your username and password, and download the spreadsheet.
http://investmenthouse.com/daily/table.php
You will need your password. If you need help click on this link and our automated system will email it to you immediately once you fill in your email address: http://www.investmenthouse.com/rescue/rescue.php3
LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMT 09/30 Flat 17.79 -0.41 15.55 18.68 1.4M 1.8M 17.52
Current. Pullback on rising, but still below average volume holding the 10 day EMA. Still in good shape.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 10.75 +0.01 8.91 10.72 940K 1.6M 10.48
Current. Making a lateral move along the 10 day EMA on rising, but still below average volume. Managing to hold some of its gain.
APOG 10/26 DB hdl 14.23 -0.53 13.58 16.32 166K 140K 14.12
Current. Tested the 10 day EMA intraday, but gave it back on stronger above average volume. May test back to support at 14. Will need to hold there.
ASPM 11/15 Test BO 21.97 +0.24 21.25 25.32 172K 150K 20.48
Current. continue with the uptrend on lower, but still strong volume making a 52 week high.
ATSN 11/17 Cup hdl 9.83 -0.12 10.25 12.25 470K 543K 9.68
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on lower, but above average volume. Meeting some resistance at 10.
BDX 10/23 Rv H&S 53.86 -0.39 51.82 61.85 471K 1.4M 53.65
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume holding the 10 day EMA. Should be ready for rebound here.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 36.09 -0.57 28.79 33.54 321K 400K 35.12
Current. Pullback holding just under the 10 day EMA, but at support on rising, but below average volume. Still in good shape.
CEC 11/03 Cup hdl 38.65 -0.83 39.57 45.49 124K 364K 38.45
Current. Ease back below the 18 day EMA on very low volume holding above support at 38.46. Needs to hold there.
CTXS 11/06 Cup hdl 24.57 -0.32 24.89 30 2.7M 3.2M 23.97
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day EMA intraday and rallied back showing a tight doji on slightly lower, but above average volume. Still in uptrend.
DHB 11/04 DB hdl 19.24 +0.39 16.75 20.55 1.4M 1.7M 17.89
Current. Continue with the uptrend for a nice gain on rising, but average volume
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 108.34 -2.16 88.05 99.94 6.4M 14M 103.45
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 108.34 -2.16 71.78 82.25 6.4M 10M 101.75
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 108.34 -2.16 34.72 46 6.4M 12M 101.75
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 108.34 -2.16 31.22 46 6.4M 12M 101.75
Current.
ECL 10/25 Test BO 34.25 -0.88 33.62 38.62 912K 1M 34.32
Trailing Stop. Thudded down below the 18 day EMA on stronger above average volume.
FFIV 10/02 Cup hdl 40.59 -1.82 32.85 38 991K 1.4M 42.24
Trailing Stop. Moving down holding the 18 day MVA on rising, but below average volume.
FSL 10/20 Test BO 17.5 -0.1 15.55 18.64 2M 2M 17.25
Current. Pullback on slightly above average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 17.
HAE 11/03 Test 50 33.98 -0.87 33.58 39 136K 190K 33.89
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day EMA on lower, but average volume. Should rebound from here.
HDTV 11/16 Test BO 7.02 -0.6 7.78 9.35 726K 1M 7.29
Buy Not Issued. The stock has not performed so will drop.
HLIT 11/09 DB hdl 7.69 -0.43 8.98 11 1.2M 1.5M 8.47
Buy Not Hit. Stock has not performed so will drop.
INTL 11/13 Cup hdl 28.53 -0.26 29.55 34.55 281K 384K 28.05
Current. Gapped down showing a tight doji just under the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume. May test back to the 18 day EMA.
INTV 11/17 Cup hdl 12.72 -0.28 13.21 16.38 258K 570K 12.35
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to support at 12.50.
IWOV 11/11 Test 20 9.79 -0.3 10.36 12.65 288K 495K 9.78
Current. Gapped down and continued to move down testing the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Needs to hold here and rebound.
JLG 10/18 Test BO 17.3 -1.76 16.79 20.15 4.3M 350K 19.05
Exited. Took rest of gain off table as it gapped lower on poor
earnings.
JNPR 10/27 DB hdl 27.93 -0.84 26.13 30 6.4M 11M 27.72
Current. Pullback on rising, but below average volume holding the 10 day EMA. May test back to 27.55.
KEY 10/25 DB hdl 33.2 -0.46 33.17 37.55 1M 1.5M 33.62
Trailing Stop. Continue to tank below the 18 day EMA on stronger volume.
KFY 11/17 DB hdl 18.38 -0.14 19.45 23.65 253K 448K 18.58
Buy Not Hit. Pullback holding the 18 day EMA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern. Needs to hold here.
KLIC 11/15 Test 50 7.44 -0.16 7.35 9.25 965K 1.4M 7.38
Current. Pullback on lower, but average volume. Managing to maintain the stock's gain.
KOMG 11/09 Rv H&S 16.04 -0.32 17.01 20.62 444K 675K 15.99
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day EMA on average volume. Testing the breakout. Should be ready for rebound.
LCAV 11/13 Rv H&S 32.55 -0.18 31.75 37.65 92K 346K 31.97
Current. Pullback on very low volume testing support at 28.41 intraday. Still in good shape.
LIZ 10/25 Test BO 41.12 -0.6 39.41 43.42 668K 881K 40.92
Current. Thudded down holding just above the 18 day EMA on rising, but average volume. May test back to 41.
LTD 10/18 Test BO 26.5 -0.55 23.55 27 6.6M 2.2M 26.02
Current. Tapped 26.91 at the high, but gave it back on strong volume holding above the 18 day EMA. May test back to the 10 day EMA, but needs to hold here.
MACE 11/16 Cup hdl 5.35 -0.02 5.82 7.08 1.1M 2.8M 5.41
Buy Not Hit. Making a lateral move on low volume.
MEDX 11/16 Cup hdl 10.14 -0.4 10.72 12.85 1.9M 1.5M 9.97
Current. Ease back on much lower, but still above average volume. May test back to support at 10.
MINI 10/27 DB hdl 30.72 -1.28 28.65 34.42 84K 153K 31.15
Exited. Thudded down holding the 18 day EMA on rising, but average volume.
MRVC 10/14 Cup 3.94 -0.12 3.21 4.55 924K 1.1M 3.74
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume. Still in good shape. May test back to the 10 day EMA.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 16.51 +0.05 15.25 19 1.2M 1M 15.94
Current. Testing the 18 day EMA intraday and rallied back holding the 10 day EMA on lower, but still above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move.
NTAP 10/30 Cup hdl 28.93 -0.98 25.67 30.32 8M 5.5M 28.85
Current. Pullback on above average volume. Still in uptrend.
NXTL 11/18 DB hdl 27.84 -0.59 28.62 34 8.1M 12M 27.42
Buy Not Hit. More volatile session testing the 10 day EMA intraday on rising, but still below average volume. May continue to test back to the 10 day EMA.
OPTV 11/10 Cup 3.72 -0.11 3.75 4.75 371K 650K 3.57
Current. Ease back on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
ORB 11/10 DB hdl 12.4 -0.12 12.69 15.21 188K 600K 12.21
Current. Pullback on lower, below average volume holding the 10 day EMA. May test back to support at 12.28, but will need to hold there.
PAAS 11/06 Cup hdl 18.32 +0.44 18.62 23.41 1.1M 1.2M 17.64
Buy Not Issued. Moving up on stronger above average volume after testing the 18 day EMA. Still in the pattern.
PER 10/14 Test BO 16.35 -0.32 16.39 19.55 217K 540K 16.28
Current. Gapped down holding just under the 18 day EMA on low volume. May test back to 16.10.
PETM 10/27 Cup hdl 35 -0.45 31.75 38.95 2.5M 2.4M 34.22
Pullback on much lower, but still above average volume. Still in uptrend.
PWAV 11/15 Cup 7.92 -0.23 8.18 10 1.8M 1.9M 7.75
Entered today. Started out on good volume but then faded. May test back to 7.90 before rebounding.
QSFT 11/15 Test BO 15.41 -0.35 16.15 19.32 407K 1.2M 15.25
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on very low volume. Still in the pattern.
RMBS 11/18 Test 20 20.68 -0.8 22.05 26.85 2.2M 4M 20.51
Buy Not Hit. Pullback on lower, below average volume. May continue to test the 200 day MVA. Still in good shape.
ROV 11/17 DB hdl 28.43 -0.7 29.17 35 403K 450K 28.12
Buy Not Issued. Gapped up at the open, but then gave it back on lower, but average volume. May test back to support at 28.20. Still in the pattern.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 8.9 -0.11 5.88 7 399K 635K 8.78
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day EMA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on rising, but below average volume. Still in good shape.
SIMG 10/30 Cup hdl 16.01 -0.53 14.19 17.22 938K 1.5M 15.45
Current. Pullback tapping 15.73 intraday on rising, but below average volume. May test back to the 10 day EMA. Still in good shape.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 35.13 -1.73 31.32 36.85 915K 1.2M 34.48
Current. Continue to pullback testing the 18 day EMA intraday on rising, but below average volume. May test back to 35.
STSI 11/18 Dbl btm 6.25 +0.19 6.28 7.58 1.4M 800K 5.88
Entered today. Continued the move today with lower, but still very strong volume. Came off the day's high of 6.42.
SYMM 11/11 Cup hdl 10.43 +0.27 10.27 12.38 462K 399K 10.32
Current. Tapped 9.89 at the low and rallied back for a nice gain on stronger above average volume. moving up on rising, volume after testing the breakout.
TV 10/16 Test 18 58.83 -0.4 55.35 62.55 494K 570K 57.78
Pullback showing a doji on much stronger above average volume. doji may indicate a change in pattern.
VLTR 11/06 Test BO 22.01 -1.68 18.73 22.48 456K 218K 22.25
Trailing Stop. Gapped down at the open on stronger above average volume.
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 31.12 -1.84 20.44 24.44 6.4M 2.6M 30.05
Current. Pullback on stronger above average volume. May test back to the 10 day EMA (30). Will need to hold here.
WIND 11/13 Test BO 13.81 -0.53 14.68 17.95 606K 775K 13.69
Current. Gapped down at the open and continued to move down testing the 18 day EMA intraday on rising, but average volume. Stock filled the gap intraday. Testing the breakout. May continue to test back to the 10 day EMA.
XXIA 11/11 Cup hdl 12.52 -0.06 13.55 16.25 273K 417K 12.61
Buy Not Hit. Pullback tapping 12.35 intraday showing a doji just above the 18 day EMA on lower, below average volume. Needs to hold here.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 28.92 -0.94 26.46 32 532K 525K 28.12
Current. Pullback testing the 10 day EMA intraday on lower, but average volume holding at some support. May continue to test back to the 10 day EMA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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