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us stock market, trade stock
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11/22/04 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
HOLIDAY SCHEDULE
Saturday through Tuesday: Market summary, best plays (new & current), continuing play table summary.
Wednesday: Market summary, continuing play table summary.
Monday: Full reports resume as usual
MARKET ALERTS:
Target hit alerts issued Monday: DHB
Buy alerts issued: RMBS
Trailing stop alerts: SNDA; BYD
Stop alerts: CTXS; PER
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the Daily alert service you can sign up at the following link:
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SUMMARY:
- Stocks follow through on Friday selling, rebound for positive close.
- Dollar worries continue, but there are pros and cons.
- Stocks undercut support early, rebound to hold key levels.
- Not counting out strength of holiday week.
Afternoon rebound holds back selling tide.
Stocks continued the Friday selling Monday morning, higher oil prices helping fuel the selling. Stocks started to struggle last week as oil's slide turned into a bounce. Friday oil surged and prices dropped. The same scenario was playing out Monday with oil approaching $50/bbl once again. Then oil reversed course and stocks came to life, rising through lunch and into the close. Stocks reversed their losses and closed positive. The small caps led all session, posting gains early when the rest of the market sold. SOX lagged all session, but in the last hour it rallied with the market and posted a modest gain.
Good to see the intraday bullish bias return as buyers stepped into stocks as they tested and slightly undercut near support. Stocks had shown this bullish action all during the rally up to late last week, and it is an indication that buyers are still there, looking for the opportunity to step into more positions. Volume backed off, not an uncommon occurrence following expiration Friday. It was still above average on NASDAQ, indicating still a lot of interest even outside of a holiday week. SP500, however, could not muster average trade on its rebound. Interest yes, conviction no. Buyers will still have to step back in with more force. For now, even with the Monday bounce, we have to be wary of a further pullback at this stage.
THE ECONOMY
Oil and the dollar dominated the economic talk Monday. Oil started higher, continuing its rebound from last week. By the close, however, it had reversed lower and stocks moved inversely. That helped in the afternoon rebound, though volume was deficient.
The dollar was once again a major concern, particularly after Greenspan's Friday speech regarding currencies and the impact of the US trade deficit. We will look at some pros and cons to a weaker dollar.
Is a falling dollar inflationary, and can it self correct?
One of the first problems a falling dollar can bring is inflation. The reason is that a falling dollar requires more dollars to buy foreign goods. In short, a falling dollar makes foreign goods costlier, raising the CPI. Of course, the theory is that higher prices mean less buying of those goods and more focus on domestically produced goods and services. At the same time foreign consumers buy more US goods because prices are lower as the dollar declines versus their currency. Thus the trade deficit problem has a self-resolving mechanism in it: the gap gets larger, the currency on the deficit side sinks, less goods are imported, more are exported, and the gap closes or shrinks to acceptable levels.
That is theory. Reality has some kinks in it. First, some of our major trading partners that make up most of the gap have their currencies tied to the dollar. In other words, their currency rises and falls with the dollar, and thus the gap with those countries remains the same regardless of the dollar's value. Thus with China, the change in the dollar has no effect on making goods more affordable in that country because the yuan moves in lockstep with the dollar. On the positive side, goods imported from China are no more expensive due to a falling dollar. Thus we don't get any gain from a falling dollar with our trade gap, but it does not hurt us. It is the trade with other countries that do not tie their currency to the dollar where a decline is inflationary. With respect to those, the decline will eventually start to rectify itself.
Second, as long as the US economy remains strong and its consumers are confident, a lot of foreign goods will be consumed. It is historical fact that US consumers buy a lot of foreign and domestic goods when they consume. If the dollar does get very low consumers will cut back on buying foreign goods such as autos, but as of now that is not the case. Indeed it has not bee the case for decades.
So, in theory a weaker dollar cures the problem of the deficit that was caused when the dollar was stronger. That does historically work, but again, with China a major trading partner and one with which we enjoy no benefit from a falling dollar, the trade gap does not improve and inflation is a consequence.
Just how weak is the dollar in historical terms?
Another issue is the strength of the dollar itself. There is wailing regarding the dollar versus the euro, but with respect to other currencies the dollar is not at a low. Indeed, the dollar is still about 10% above the level where it bottomed in 1995 against the German marc during that dollar decline during the Clinton administration. In reality, that has to be the benchmark by which the current dollar/euro exchange rate is measured as the euro is still much too new to tell us much about the relative value of the two currencies. Certainly the EU economies are not strong enough to support the gains the euro has made versus the dollar. That suggests a lot of speculation in the currency exchange just as there was in the oil market the past several months. As noted over the weekend, the dollar is still at the 30 year average of value with respect to a basket of other currencies. Thus this level of the dollar is hardly a crisis level. If it continues to plunge, then there is an inflationary affect.
How do you solve the trade gap problem?
It is interesting to hear the talk about the problem of the weaker dollar and the trade deficit. If we accept the premise that the gap is a bad thing, something that has not been shown with any concrete historical evidence, then what is the cure? Over the weekend we talked about Greenspan and the Fed 'solving' the problem with rate hikes to make foreign investment more attractive.
That is not a solution, just a method to keep foreign investors interested so they will cover the gap. Indeed, taken to its logical extreme, i.e. the Fed overreacting and raising rates too far, the higher rates would ultimately detract investment as the Fed would raise rates too far and stall the economy. No one wants to invest in a recessionary economy unless rates are extremely high. With Fed Funds rates at 2%, the Fed would have to hike rates at least another 300 basis points even to make things really attractive, and that would crush the economy. If the Fed kept raising to attract foreign capital seeking interest income, that would result in stagflation, i.e. a recession along with high interest rates. That would correct some of the problem as US consumers would buy fewer foreign goods in a recession, but those foreigners wanted to invest in the US for other than interest income would look elsewhere. In other words, you get some benefit in one area but lose in another so the net benefit is problematical. Indeed, it is much like the Fed hiking rates in order to prevent inflation caused by rising oil prices resulting from a cartel increasing prices arbitrarily; raising interest rates won't impact the cartel's decision unless they are raised enough to stall the economy and demand for oil tanks. Unless the Fed wants lower prices at the cost of economic expansion, this is not a viable option.
Another way is trade restriction, but that never solved anything. It just ensures inflation by making US consumers pay more for goods they could get cheaper overseas. That is just another way to higher prices as well as stifling innovation, both hurting our economy. Indeed, the current tax structure should be changed so that our corporations are not handicapped against foreign competition from the start. That would help make our goods more attractive up front as they would not bear that additional tax burden as a cost.
As with all things regarding a free economy, the way out of a problem is to focus on growing the economy. After all, US consumers buy a lot of foreign goods unless we are in a deep recession where the consumer stops buying. No one wants that kind of economy. Thus, if we accept the premise that we want an expanding economy, the way to shrink the trade gap is to grow the economy so that the trade deficit is a smaller percentage of the overall economy. After all, the only worry regarding the trade gap and thus the falling dollar as impacted by that trade deficit is the size of the gap versus GDP. A strong, expanding economy will attract more foreign investment for any number of reasons. Moreover, if it outpaces growth in the gap as it historically does, the gap shrinks as the economy grows.
Thus a growing economy combined with spending restraint and serious 'non-discretionary' spending reform will do more for improving the strength of the dollar, the budget deficit, and the trade deficit than any clumsy interest rate-based policy simply because it sets the foundation for the growth engine that has always made the US economy the strongest in the world. That is very hard, indeed foolishly hard, for foreign dollars to avoid. Even with the current gap and deficit, foreign investment is still pouring into the US. Imagine what a solidly growing economy with these key areas of improvement would attract.
What Greenspan was saying Friday (hopefully).
We have concerns about what Greenspan was getting to with his speech and comments last Friday. The part about investors should be well-hedged against higher interest rates is really bothersome, and not easily explained away.
In any event, a major theme of Greenspan's has been reducing spending in all areas of government while still maintaining the growth incentives for the economy. That is a message of economic growth and fiscal responsibility that would obviate the need for any draconian interest rate measures by the Fed. Indeed, it appears that the Fed was holding up two stark choices for Congress and the administration: get your spending house in order or the Fed may be forced to do it for you. Again, the danger is that Congress will only heed half the warning and kill off what makes the economy grow, i.e. lower tax rates and streamlined and reformed programs. In other words Congress will want to cut the things that put money in our pockets as opposed to its coffers to spend. Greenspan will have to clarify what he wants to Congress, but even then, when it comes to money in Congress' pocket versus ours, you know who usually loses. Unfortunately, it is not only a short term loss from raised taxes, but a longer term loss as the economy slows as the investment money it needs is bled off into Congress.
THE MARKET
There were some bright spots in the Monday trade. The bullish intraday action was a plus with the morning selling and reversal to close positive. Another was the leadership role once more assumed by the small caps. What has been forgotten in this move since the large caps recovered in late October and early November is that the small caps have led for over a year, and they continue to lead. Small caps do well in an expanding economy, and an economy that is expected to expand into the future. Thus we view that action as a continued strong positive for the market overall.
Bigger picture, stocks remained in an uptrend, helped by that Monday rebound. They are also still in a near term fight, however, as they try to move through last week's volatility and rougher trade on some unexpected news from the Fed chairman. Of course, there is also the rebound in oil prices, something the market has not dealt with well this year. Thus Monday was a start to a resolution of last week's rougher trade, but it was no answer in itself.
Market Sentiment
VIX: 12.97; -0.53
VXN: 18.77; -0.95
VXO: 13.58; -1.02
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.73; -0.08
NASDAQ
Tapped toward the 18 day EMA and then rebounded for a nice gain on lower, but hardly shabby volume.
Stats: +14.56 points (+0.7%) to close at 2085.19
Volume: 1.933B (-5.28%). Modest volume decline though still comfortably above average. You always want to see a volume selling session met with stronger trade; all things considered this was not a weak session, but it leaves the Monday bounce a bit light in the saddle.
Up Volume: 1.225B (+590M)
Down Volume: 680M (-702M). Decent up to down volume ratio.
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.45 to 1. Modest breadth, well below the Friday selling level.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.1 to 1
New Highs: 137 (+31)
New Lows: 25 (+1)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^ixq.html
A good hold over the 18 day EMA and recovery to hold the 10 day EMA (2071) on the close. Solid intraday rebound off the June high (2048), a key interim high in the 2004 base as it was the last lower high. A very good point to find support and continue the move higher to take on the high in the base (2154). Volume was lower as noted, and thus it may not be ready to make the move. Holding near support on the low and rebounding is good action to build upon.
NASDAQ 100 large caps sold more than the overall NASDAQ Friday, and Monday they rallied more than the overall NASDAQ. Good hold over the 10 day EMA and then rebound to close at session highs. Good but needs more upside volume.
SOX tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and then rebounded for a modest gain. Setting up for another try at the 200 day SMA (440.84).
S&P 500/NYSE
Sold below the 10 day EMA but then rebounded though on low volume.
Stats: +6.9 points (+0.59%) to close at 1177.24
NYSE Volume: 1.391B (-8.75%). Volume was the disappointment as the small caps led the rebound. Not a failure, but some above average volume as with NASDAQ would have been what we preferred.
Up Volume: 942M (+577M)
Down Volume: 428M (-725M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.18 to 1. The small caps helped lead the composite breadth higher.
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.52 to 1
New Highs: 201 (+67)
New Lows: 10 (-1)
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^spx.html
Continued selling below the 10 day EMA (1172) but reversed for a gain, moving over the key 1175 level. As noted, the volume was the Achilles' heel though hardly fatal at this stage as it pulls back to test this move. It sure looks like an 18 day EMA (1162) test before this pullback is over, a level roughly coincident with the January to March highs (1155 to 1158).
The small cap SP600 made the deeper test of the 10 day EMA (312.59) then rebounded Monday, leading the market and just missing a new all-time closing high (316.24). A week long lateral move, holding most of the gains with resistance at 316 to 317. Providing leadership once more, and this 10 day EMA test may be as far as they come back.
DJ30
A bounce, but a low volume, below average one that did little to reverse the Friday sell off. Once more the blue chips held the 10 day EMA (10,457) on the close, a level also roughly coincident with the June high (10,480). This was not the last high in the base; if it could hold here it would show good strength. With this low volume bounce, it could still find the 18 day EMA (10,368) or September high (10,342) before it is ready. Again, a hold here at the 10 day EMA would be a sign of real strength.
Stats: +32.51 points (+0.31%) to close at 10489.42
Volume: 240 million shares Monday versus 275 million shares Friday.
The chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/^dji.html
TUESDAY
Volume was lower Monday, but after an expiration Friday, with NASDAQ volume well above average, it was not a bad showing. Friday was a distribution session, but it had other factors including that expiration working it lower. You have to be impressed with the recovery from the early selling that looked as if the Friday pullback was going to ramp into a much stronger pullback. It may still do that; outside NASDAQ, the volume was pretty anemic.
Despite its drawbacks we did like the solid rebound off near support. It was enough to shake out a lot of the sellers; we hung in there the best we could though we had to close some positions that were breaking lower and not recovering. That ability to reverse the follow through to the Friday selling was key. It may not lead to an immediate rebound and resumption of the rally, but it shows the buyers are still ready to enter this rally.
We also cannot forget this is the Thanksgiving week, a week that often sees a positive move. There is a lot to be said for seasonality as we have once again seen this year. Despite a 10 month base stocks bottomed in late summer (NASDAQ) and October (DJ30) and started the current move toward the end of the year. That will keep us looking for solid moves off tests of breakouts and even new breakouts from good patterns. We are still concerned this may pullback further, but we saw that solid action from the small caps that shows us there is still the same bid under this market that helped drive it higher since August.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2085.15
Resistance:
Price resistance at 2090.
Some resistance at 2100.
January high at 2154
Support:
The April high at 2079
The 10 day EMA at 2071
2050, prior resistance, provided some support Monday
The 18 day EMA at 2045
Some price points at 2000.
October high at 1971
The 50 day EMA at 1981.95
The 200 day SMA at 1953
S&P 500: Closed at 1177.24
Resistance:
1175 second high in that double top that spanned late 2001, early 2002 was cracked again.
Q1 1999 lows at 1215
October 1999 low at 1233
Q2 2001 peak at 1310.
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 1172.42
The 18 day EMA at 1162.
January highs at 1158
1142-1146 are the June highs.
1130 acted as some resistance on the move higher.
1128 to 1125 the September closing high.
The 50 day EMA at 1139.52
Dow: Closed at 10, 489.42
Resistance:
Late April, June peaks at 10,478 to 10,512
10,570 is the early April high
Price consolidation at 10,600 level
10,747 is the February high
Support:
The 10 day EMA at 10,457
The 18 day EMA at 10,386
September high at 10,342
The 200 day SMA at 10,245
The 50 day EMA at 10,244
The February/June 2004 down trendline at 10,185
9980 to 10,000.
Economic Calendar
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
November 23
Existing Home Sales, Oct (10:00): 6.75M expected and 6.75M prior
November 24
Durable Orders, October (8:30): 0.5% expected and 0.2% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 11/20 (8:30): 335K expected and 334K prior
Michigan Sentiment-Rev., November (9:45): 96.0 expected and 95.5 prior
Help-Wanted Index, October (10:00): 37 expected and 36 prior
New Home Sales, October (10:00): 1200K expected and 1206K prior
THE PLAYS
Good movers Monday: APCS; DHB; HAE; LCAV; NFLD; MSCC; RMBS; WIND (like the reversal)
Weekend play results:
MONE: Nice reach down to the 200 day SMA and recovery.
NFLD: Strong surge off of the 18 day EMA.
SLR: Making the full test of the 10 day EMA.
MRVC: Very nice, tight doji at the 10 day EMA.
XXIA: Volume was up well above average as it tests the 18 day.
New plays for Tuesday:
Upside:
Play Date: 11/22/2004
EPIC (Epicor Software--$15.5; +0.57; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/epic.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume surged above average Monday as EPIC continued the move off of its 50 day EMA (14.27), an important support level that acted as support for the handle to its 10 month base. This base is forming near a multiyear high, a level that, once it breaks out, offers no upside resistance. Strong 9 to 6 accumulation in the base shows net buying, setting up the breakout and run to come. Money flow is running higher ahead of the price even as it pulls back, a very good divergence. Looks ready; want to see another strong volume session as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 953.725K Avg Volume: 535.59K
BUY POINT: $15.88 Volume=775K Target=$19 Stop=$15.05
POSITION: EUE CC - Mar. $15c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/epic.html
Play Date: 11/22/2004
IDNX (Identix--$7.97; +0.36; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/idnx.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume jumped Monday as IDNX started off the 18 day EMA (7.49), getting ready to make the breakout from its 7.5 month base. IDNX is in a long 4 year base, but this pattern often forms as a stock comes off of the bottom of the base. Strong 9 to 4 accumulation suggests it is ready to move as it shows strong buying during the base. Money flow is excellent, leading higher as the stock finished the base. Ready for the breakout.
Volume: 3.044M Avg Volume: 1.084M
BUY POINT: $8.11 Volume=1.5M Target=$9.95 Stop=$7.57
POSITION: IDX CU - Mar. $7.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/idnx.html
Play Date: 11/22/2004
IMGN (Immunogen--$6.96; +0.11; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/imgn.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. IMGN has moved laterally the past two weeks, holding over the 10 day EMA (6.73) as volume falls below average. That shows very few buyers as it moves sideways, consolidating the break over the 200 day SMA (6.31) as it works on a handle to its 7 month base. Solid 6 to 4 accumulation shows net buying during the base. Just waiting for volume to rally as it makes the move through the breakout.
Volume: 152.609K Avg Volume: 168.181K
BUY POINT: $7.28 Volume=252K Target=$8.94 Stop=$7.11
POSITION: GMU DU - Apr. $7.50c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/imgn.html
SUBSCRIBER PORTFOLIO: These are stocks subscribers suggest by vote that we put in a portfolio to track and move into the stocks if they perform well. If you have any suggestions for additions or deletions, email us. We don't cover them all each report, just when something interesting is developing.
BR, COH, EASI, EBAY, GTRC, HDWR, JNPR, MSFT, QCOM
EASI: Still working on trying to form a handle to the 20 week cup base.
GTRC: Nice recovery from the late October selling and is making a higher low here at the 18 day EMA..
JNPR: Reached down to the 18 day EMA on the low and rebounded. Looks ready.
CONTINUING PLAYS
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LEGEND FOR CONTINUING PLAY TABLE
DATE: date play first appeared on report.
PLAY: Denotes the type of pattern or play.
Upside play types: Asc Tri=Ascending triangle; BO=Breakout; Cup=Cup base; Cup hdl=Cup w/handle; DB hdl=Double bottom w/handle; Dbl btm=Double bottom; Flat=Flat base; FlyPlat=Flying Plateau; Pennant=Pennant; Rv H&S=Reverse head & shoulders; Saucer=Saucer base; Test 18=Testing 18 day MVA; Test 50=Testing 50 day MVA; Test BO=Testing the breakout (could be 10 day MVA test, etc.) Downside play types: CCall=Covered Call; Dsc Tri=Descending triangle; Dbl Top=Double top; H&S=Head & shoulders; Put (generic downside);
PIVOT=Buy point
Tgt=Target stock price for the play. Applies to stock and options.
Vol=Volume for the most recent session.
TgtV=Target volume to enter the play.
Stop=Stop advisory point. This is advisory and we may or may not exit a play if it hits this level depending upon market conditions.
PLAY STATUS: Buy not hit (stock has not hit buy point); Buy not issued (stock has hit buy point but did not enter due to weak volume, poor intraday action, poor market action); Current (ongoing play already entered); Entered today (entered the play that session); Exited (closed the position); Target hit (play hit initial target; will note if took all or partial gain or let run further); Trailing stop (exited using a trailing stop loss).
Upside Plays
Stock Date Play Close +/- Pivot Tgt Vol TgtV Stop
AMT 09/30 Flat 18.15 +0.36 15.55 18.68 999K 1.8M 17.52
Current. Nice move up the 10 day EMA on lower, below average volume.
APCS 10/06 Asc Bse 11.4 +0.65 8.91 10.72 8.8M 1.6M 10.48
Current. Bounced off the 18 day EMA and rallied for a great move on very strong volume surge. Came off the day's high of 12.19. Nice recovery.
APOG 10/26 DB hdl 14.25 +0.02 13.58 16.32 189K 140K 14.12
Current. Gapped up to open on the 10 day EMA, but gave most of it back on stronger above average volume. Beginning to make a lateral move slightly under the 18 day EMA.
ASPM 11/15 Test BO 21.68 -0.29 21.25 25.32 258K 150K 20.48
Current. Pullback testing the 18 day EMA intraday making a fierce rally back on strong volume. Showing good strength coming off the day's low.
ATSN 11/17 Cup hdl 9.93 +0.1 10.25 12.25 298K 543K 9.68
Buy Not Hit. Tested 18 day EMA and rallied back showing a doji on average volume. Still in good shape.
BDX 10/23 Rv H&S 54.72 +0.86 51.82 61.85 517K 1.4M 53.65
Current.
BYD 10/13 Test BO 35.6 -0.49 28.79 33.54 622K 400K 35.12
Trailing Stop.
CEC 11/03 Cup hdl 39.2 +0.55 39.57 45.49 163K 364K 38.45
Current. Moving up on rising volume after testing the breakout.
CTXS 11/06 Cup hdl 23.69 -0.88 24.89 30 3.1M 3.2M 23.97
Exited.
DHB 11/04 DB hdl 20.39 +1.15 16.75 20.55 2.6M 1.7M 17.89
Target Hit. Took some of the money off the table as stock gapped up at the open for a great move to hit the target on strong volume surge.
EBAY 08/31 DB hdl 109.48 +1.14 88.05 99.94 8.1M 14M 103.45
Current. Tapped 106.03 at the intraday low and rallied back holding just under resistance at 110.50 on rising, but below average volume.
EBAY 03/06 Flat 109.48 +1.14 71.78 82.25 8.1M 10M 101.75
Current.
EBAY 12/12 Test 18 109.48 +1.14 34.72 46 8.1M 12M 101.75
Current.
EBAY 10/15 Test 50 109.48 +1.14 31.22 46 8.1M 12M 101.75
Current.
FSL 10/20 Test BO 17.6 +0.1 15.55 18.64 1.4M 2M 17.25
Current. Tested the 10 day EMA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on lower, but average volume. Testing the breakout. May test back to 17.
HAE 11/03 Test 50 35.2 +1.22 33.58 39 248K 190K 33.89
Current. Bounced off the 18 day EMA for a nice move up the 10 day EMA on excellent volume surge..
INTL 11/13 Cup hdl 28.05 -0.48 29.55 34.55 263K 384K 28.05
Current. Pullback holding the 18 day EMA on below average volume. Needs to hold here.
INTV 11/17 Cup hdl 12.95 +0.23 13.21 16.38 212K 570K 12.35
Current. Tested the 10 day EMA intraday and rallied back holding at some resistance on below average volume.
IWOV 11/11 Test 20 9.67 -0.12 10.36 12.65 349K 495K 9.78
Current. Pullback tapping 9.99 at the intraday low and rallied back holding the 18 day EMA on rising, but below average volume. Needs to hold here and rebound.
JNPR 10/27 DB hdl 28.2 +0.27 26.13 30 7.1M 11M 27.72
Current.
KFY 11/17 DB hdl 18.91 +0.53 19.45 23.65 305K 448K 18.58
Buy Not Hit. Bounced off the 18 day EMA for a nice gain on rising, but average volume. Looking good.
KLIC 11/15 Test 50 7.4 -0.04 7.35 9.25 935K 1.4M 7.38
Current. Pullback on average volume showing a doji on the 10 day EMA. Still in good shape.
KOMG 11/09 Rv H&S 16.85 +0.81 17.01 20.62 263K 675K 15.99
Current. Moving up on lower, below average volume after testing the breakout. Would like to see volume increase on upside moves.
LCAV 11/13 Rv H&S 33.8 +1.25 31.75 37.65 416K 346K 31.97
Current. Nice move up the 10 day EMA on strong volume surge.
LIZ 10/25 Test BO 41 -0.06 39.41 43.42 600K 881K 40.92
Current. Pullback tapping 40.53 at the low and rallied back holding the 10 day EMA on lower below average volume. Should be ready for next move up.
LTD 10/18 Test BO 26.88 +0.38 23.55 27 8.1M 2.2M 26.02
Current. Breakout move on very strong volume surge after testing the 18 day EMA.
MACE 11/16 Cup hdl 5.5 +0.15 5.82 7.08 1.1M 2.8M 5.41
Buy Not Hit. Holding at some resistance on low volume.
MEDX 11/16 Cup hdl 10.32 +0.18 10.72 12.85 1.3M 1.5M 9.97
Current. Tested the 10 day EMA and rallied back for a nice gain on lower, below average volume. Continue with uptrend.
MINI 10/27 DB hdl 31 +0.28 28.65 34.42 90K 153K 31.15
Exited.
MONE 11/20 Cup hdl 6.55 -0.03 6.82 8.48 276K 530K 6.36
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 18 day EMA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on lower, below average volume. Still in the pattern.
MRVC 10/14 Cup 3.92 -0.02 3.21 4.55 580K 1.1M 3.74
Current. Volatile session tapping 3.80 at the intraday low and rallied back showing a tight doji on lower, below average volume. Continue with the move up the 10 day EMA.
MSCC 10/07 Test BO 17.21 +0.7 15.25 19 860K 1M 15.94
Current. Bounced off the 10 day EMA for a nice gain on lower, but above average volume. Moving up after testing the 18 day EMA.
NFLD 11/20 Test BO 17.16 +1.41 16.55 19.85 628K 300K 15.55
Entered today. Explosive move on excellent volume surge.
NTAP 10/30 Cup hdl 29.85 +0.92 25.67 30.32 4.7M 5.5M 28.85
Current. Continue with uptrend for a nice gain on lower, but still above average volume. Holding below resistance at 30.
NXTL 11/18 DB hdl 28.42 +0.58 28.62 34 8.2M 12M 27.42
Buy Not Hit. Moving up the 10 day EMA for a nice gain on below average volume. Holding at some resistance.
OPTV 11/10 Cup 3.69 -0.03 3.75 4.75 320K 650K 3.57
Current. Pullback tapping 3.51 at the intraday low and rallied back on low volume. Still in good shape showing strength coming off the day's low.
ORB 11/10 DB hdl 12.61 +0.21 12.69 15.21 407K 600K 12.21
Current. Moving up on stronger above average volume after testing the breakout. Tapped 200 day MVA intraday and rallied back for a nice gain.
PAAS 11/06 Cup hdl 18.51 +0.19 18.62 23.41 675K 1.2M 17.64
Buy Not Issued.
PER 10/14 Test BO 15.84 -0.51 16.39 19.55 801K 540K 16.28
Exited.
PETM 10/27 Cup hdl 34.99 -0.01 31.75 38.95 1.7M 2.4M 34.22
PWAV 11/15 Cup 8.04 +0.12 8.18 10 673K 1.9M 7.75
Current. bounced off the 18 day EMA holding just above the 10 day EMA on low volume. Would like to see more volume in upside moves.
QSFT 11/15 Test BO 15.38 -0.03 16.15 19.32 789K 1.2M 15.25
Buy Not Hit. Pullback testing the 10 day EMA intraday and rallied back showing a doji on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
RMBS 11/18 Test 20 21.92 +1.24 22.22 27 6.2M 4M 20.78
Entered today. Nice move up the 10 day EMA for a stronger above average volume. Came off the day's high of 22.90.
ROV 11/17 DB hdl 28.52 +0.09 29.17 35 376K 450K 28.12
Buy Not Issued.
SBAC 08/14 Test BO 9 +0.1 5.88 7 481K 635K 8.78
Current.
SIMG 10/30 Cup hdl 16.25 +0.24 14.19 17.22 835K 1.5M 15.45
Current.
SLR 11/20 Test BO 5.88 -0.11 6.28 7.55 3.7M 5.2M 5.85
Buy Not Hit. Pull back holding the 18 day EMA on rising, but below average volume. Still in the pattern.
SNDA 10/11 Test BO 36 +0.86 31.32 36.85 1.1M 1.2M 34.48
Trailing Stop.
STSI 11/18 Dbl btm 6.34 +0.09 6.28 7.58 859K 800K 5.88
Current. Continue with the uptrend on lower, but above average volume.
SYMM 11/11 Cup hdl 10.33 -0.1 10.27 12.38 250K 399K 10.32
Current. Pullback on low volume tapping 10.05 intraday. Still in good shape.
TV 10/16 Test 18 58.99 +0.16 55.35 62.55 291K 570K 57.78
VLTR 11/06 Test BO 21.9 -0.11 18.73 22.48 277K 218K 22.25
Trailing Stop.
VRSN 09/29 DB hdl 31.71 +0.59 20.44 24.44 3.8M 2.6M 30.05
Current. Tested the 10 day EMA intraday and rallied back on lower, below average volume. Still in uptrend.
WIND 11/13 Test BO 14.18 +0.37 14.68 17.95 936K 775K 13.69
Current. Tapped 13.20 at the low and rallied back for a nice move on excellent volume surge. Some resistance at 14.45.
XXIA 11/11 Cup hdl 12.52 0 13.55 16.25 403K 417K 12.61
Buy Not Hit. More volatile session. Making a lateral move along the 10 day EMA on stronger above average volume.
ZQK 10/06 FlyPlat 28.93 +0.01 26.46 32 486K 525K 28.12
Current. Tapped 28.53 at the low and rallied back showing a doji just above the 10 day EMA on lower, average volume. Still in good shape. May be ready for next move up.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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