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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Friday: ATVI; CME; CREE; INOD; MIPS; KLIC; MTSN; NCR; NTGR
Thursday night play results:
LMRA: Another low volume test of the 10 day EMA as it continues setting up for the next bounce.
MTSN: Nice volume break higher.
PLCE: Took a breather, easing back from the solid Thursday move.
WMS: Very low volume on the 10 day EMA as it sets its feet for the jump higher.
New Plays:
Play Date: 12/04/2004
BEAV (BE Aerospace--$10.90; +0.24; optionable): Aerospace and defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/beav.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. BEAVE gapped higher on volume Friday, but could not quite clear its three week handle that ahs formed at the end of its 13 week base. Excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the pattern (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buying during the base, setting up the breakout move. Money flow is solid, rising ahead of price. A sweet little base that looks ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 1.016M Avg Volume: 706.302K
BUY POINT: $11.08 Volume=1.1M Target=$13.45 Stop=$10.48
POSITION: BQV DB - Apr. $10c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/beav.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
GPN (Global Payments--$56.34; +0.26; optionable): High volume payments processor of electronic transactions and money transfers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
STATUS: Flying plateau. Working in a tight range on low volume the pat 5 weeks, holding the 18 day EMA (55.83) as it does. This move is consolidating the September to October breakout and run from a 21 cup with handle base sporting strong 9 to 6 accumulation. The recent lateral move shows strong 3 to 1 accumulation; no doubt a lot of accumulation in this stock as it readies for another breakout to another new all-time high. Strong money flow is a great compliment to the pattern. A good, strong volume surge should break the stock out. Earnings are out 12-23, and GPN could give us its first split announcement at that time.
Volume: 207.5K Avg Volume: 283.555K
BUY POINT: $57.78 Volume=425K Target=$65 Stop=$56
POSITION: GPN BK - Feb. $55c (72 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gpn.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
LFUS (Littelfuse--$39.14; -0.51; optionable): Circuit protection products for electronic, auto, and electric markets
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lfus.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tremendous run in 2003 to June 2004, and it needed a good base to set up for the next big run. The current 5.5 month pattern has done just that, and now LFUS is working laterally in its three week handle, the point where the last weak holders in the base are shaken out as they become frustrated that the stock has apparently stalled out before reaching the old high. Fearing another tank they sell out. The low volume, however, tells us they are not many. Moreover, positive accumulation tells us there are more buyers than sellers, and rising money flow that is rallying higher even as the price moves laterally shows money moving into the stock, preparing the way higher. Volume started to edge up some last week as the trading range narrowed. That often precedes the breakout move, so we want to be ready this week.
Volume: 69.598K Avg Volume: 238.272K
BUY POINT: $40.42 Volume=357K Target=$48 Stop=$38.58
POSITION: FGQ CH - Mar. $40c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lfus.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
OPTN (Option Care--$17.71; +0.06; optionable): Home health care
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A nice 20 week pattern has formed, using the 200 day SMA (14.48) on the two lows as support, a good sign that institutions were stepping in to buy at that key level. Strong volume off the second leg in late October, and then a nice, easy and low volume laterally move to consolidate that gain. Volume jumped Friday, and after a lull in the handle that often indicates a breakout ahead. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base and money flow rallying higher even as the stock price moves laterally. Looks to be hitting on all cylinders and ready to breakout to a new all-time high. In addition, this one is at its prior split price, and it may give us an extra bonus here.
Volume: 399.37K Avg Volume: 223.443K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=320K Target=$21.75 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: UOC DW - Apr. $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/optn.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
SRNA (Serena Software--$21.83; +0.77; optionable): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/srna.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. SRNA is starting the breakout move from its 11 month base sporting solid 9 to 7 accumulation (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 7 down price weeks on rising volume). Strong money flow is leading higher after the stock made a modest dip to end November and form the handle to the base where the last sellers are shaken out. Friday volume jumped back above average as the stock cleared the handle high. Looking to move in on a further, strong volume move.
Volume: 670.483K Avg Volume: 528.013K
BUY POINT: $21.11 Volume=650K Target=$25.25 Stop=$20.62
POSITION: NHU BD - Feb. $20c (82 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/srna.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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