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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Tuesday: CMTL; OPWV; RCI
NEW PLAYS: New pre-announcement plays are contained in the pre-announcement section.
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/07/2004
TUES (Tuesday Morning--$36; +0.61; optionable): Discount variety stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tues.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume was up Tuesday as TUES (har har) started its breakout move from its 8.5 month base. This is the tail end of a longer 16 month pattern; the stock is a now rested and has the sellers cleared out. Strong money flow is leading the way higher, leading TUES to a new all-time high. We like all-time highs as that means no overhead supply, no disgruntled shareholders ready to sell (they are all happy; another new high, yeehah.). Solid move in a market that was selling. One of those stocks ignoring the other 75% or more.
Volume: 432.728K Avg Volume: 268.318K
BUY POINT: $36.25 Volume=402K Target=$43 Stop=$34.75
POSITION: UUG CG - Mar. $35c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tues.html
Play Date: 12/07/2004
HPOL (Harris Interactive--$7.21; -0.19; optionable): Market research, polling, and consulting (Harris polls, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hpol.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Harris is working on the right side of an 11 month cup base, coming back to test the 200 day SMA (7.08) after a stellar, high volume break through that level last week. It sold with the market Tuesday, but volume was much lower, coming in well below average as it tapped the 200 day and rebounded to recoup some of the session losses. This is the second base in the stock's life; that means it still has a lot of room in its move higher. Looking for volume to jump back up as HPOL rebounds off the 200 day and through the buy point.
Volume: 220.6K Avg Volume: 265.909K
BUY POINT: $7.42 Volume=400K Target=$8.98 Stop=$7.07
POSITION: HQS DU - Apr. $7.50c (47 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/hpol.html
Continuing Leader Plays:
Play Date: 12/04/2004
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$59.60; -0.26; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Jumped higher on some solid trade Tuesday, moving through the buy point up to 60.88 on the high. It could not hold the move, however, selling back in the afternoon with the market. Managed to hold some of the gain and is still in a very nice 9 week base that follows on the heels of a 9 month cup with handle; nice base on base pattern, working to really weed out the sellers. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price weeks on rising volume) shows net buyers during the pattern. Nice three week, very flat lateral range holding just above the 18 day EMA (58.89) on very low, below average volume. Sixty remains the point to beat, and needs continued strong volume as it does. Again, ACS could give us a split announcement in January as it is at its first ever split price.
Volume: 2.181M Avg Volume: 1.228M
BUY POINT: $60.22 Volume=1.8M Target=$67.72 Stop=$58.68
POSITION: ACS DL - Apr. $60c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acs.html
Play Date: 11/16/2004
ECIL (ECI Telecom--$8.45; 0.00; no options): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ecil.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up Tuesday, moving back above average as ECIL flirted with the breakout but has been unable to hold the move into the close. Still very solid in its 11 week base that used the 200 day SMA as support at the bottom; good institutional support level. Money flow continues to lead the way. Looks ready to follow the money higher.
Volume: 514.9K Avg Volume: 376.136K
BUY POINT: $8.44 Volume=850K Target=$10.15 Stop=$8.04
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ecil.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
Current Pre-Announcement Plays: In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern. Still gat positive moves on the announcement, but stocks in this market need to have a good pattern of accumulation to really benefit from a split announcement.
AEOS: Forecast 1-24-04
BMET: Forecast 12-17-04.
BSC: Tentative date: 12-15-04
CDWC: Researching the date.
CHS: Forecast 12-14 or 12-15
CMTL: Forecast 12-7-04 before the open. No split but nice earnings gapped it sharply higher.
CNMD: Researching next potential date. Nice test of the 18 day EMA.
COLM: Still researching the date. Showing a doji at the 18 day EMA after testing the 50 day EMA on the low.
DGX: Researching next date, tentatively 1-25-05.
EBAY: Forecast to announce another split in January. Researching the exact date.
EASI: Forecast 12-14-04 before the open.
EXBD: Still researching next date as no split announced this month.
FDX: Forecast 12-6. No split announced with the board meeting, but still moving higher on expectations of a strong packaged season.
GPN: Forecast 12-16-04
HAR: Forecast 1-26-04.
KMRT: Researching date after its announcement of the Sears acquisition
LEH: Forecast 12-21-04
MCO: Forecast 12-7-04. Not seeing any split word yet, but making a low volume pullback to the 18 day EMA as it continues its trend.
MGG: Forecast 12-7-04. No announcement with the board meeting but holding the strong gap higher.
NMGA: Forecast 12-1-04. No split announcement to start the month. Holding some support at 66.
PIXR: Still researching the date.
SBUX: Did not announce with earnings. Researching next date.
SPLS: No split announced with earnings on 11-16-04. Nice test of the 18 day EMA.
TTC: Forecast 12-8-04. Looking for the announcement Wednesday.
UTX: Forecast 1-20-04
XRAY: Forecast 12-14-04.
Full Write-ups: We do not cover all candidates in full in each report, but focus on those ready to make a move or are right at their forecast announcement date. This way we are focused on those stocks ready to make moves.
New Pre-Announcement Plays: Some old favorites have come back into split contention.
Play Date: 12/07/2004
DE (Deere & Co.--$69.75; -0.51; optionable): Nothing runs like a Deere. Forecast early next year, but forming up well now.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:1 split in 1995 at $70.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Easing back the past two weeks on low volume, forming the handle to a nice 8 month base sporting solid 11 to 8 accumulation. Excellent money flow to match the pattern and accumulation; DE looks to be hitting on all cylinders. Looking for this leader to rebound on strong, above average volume as it moves through the buy point to give us the entry.
Volume: 1.928M Avg Volume: 2.11M
BUY POINT: $70.88 Volume=3.2M Target=$81.55 Stop=$69.42
POSITION: DEN CN - Mar. $70c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/de.html
Continuing Pre-Announcement Plays:
Play Date: 12/04/2004
AEOS (American Eagle Outfitters--$43.36; +0.44; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 1-24-04.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split 1-22-01. Prior to that it announced splits in March 1999, April 1998, and December 1997.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aeos.html
STATUS: Flat base. Still working laterally above the 18 day EMA (42.62) in its 4 week base. This flat pattern follows a breakout in March that sent AEOS upon a long rally up the 50 day EMA (40.35). Positive 2 to 0 accumulation in the lateral move along with some good upside volume spikes last week. Like those spikes as the stock holds a tight range. Excellent money flow is a good combination with those strong upside volume spikes.
Volume: 1.29M Avg Volume: 1.91M
BUY POINT: $44.25 Volume=2.8M Target=$50.65 Stop=$42.32
POSITION: AQU BI - Feb. $45c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aeos.html
Play Date: 11/30/2004
CDWC (CDW Computer Centers--$66.76; -0.56; optionable): Wholesale computer sales.
BACKGROUND: A frequent splitter before the bear market plunge in 2000, CDWC has finally fought back up to the $70 level where it announced regular splits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cdwc.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. We like the way CDWC is ignoring the market selling, tapping the 18 day EMA (65.98) on the Tuesday low and rebounding to recoup some losses. Still holding the nice handle to the 9 month base that has formed an almost textbook handle (lower volume fade). Again, it is holding its own as the rest of the market sold. Volume was up Tuesday, and we are looking for it to continue higher as CDWC moves throught he buy point.
Volume: 662.258K Avg Volume: 884.409K
BUY POINT: New: $68.48 (orig. $67.72) Volume=1.3M Target=$75 Stop=$64.65
POSITION: DWQ DM - Apr. $65c (61 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cdwc.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
CHS (Chicos Fas--$43.14; +0.13; optionable): Apparel stores. Forecast to announce a split 12-14-04 or 12-15-04 before or during market hours.
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 2:1 split 6-27-02 at $36. Before that it announced splits 12-19-01 (3:2 at $38); 4-19-01 (3:2 at $42); 12-14-99 (2:1 at $43).
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chs.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still low volume and still forming a new handle to its 22 week base. Accumulation is a solid 6 to 4 as it forms back up for the next move, showing net buyers. Making the continued test we wanted to see to form the handle better and consolidate the big break higher to start the month.
Volume: 779.7K Avg Volume: 1.866M
BUY POINT: $44.11 Volume=2.5M Target=$50.88 Stop=$42.05
POSITION: CHS BI - Feb. $45c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/chs.html
Play Date: 12/04/2004
OPTN (Option Care--$17.67; -0.06; optionable): Home health care. Still researching the date, but tentatively forecast to announce in early February.
BACKGROUND: Last split 5:4 in May 2002 at $20.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/optn.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Low volume Tuesday as OPTN held steady in the handle to its 20 week base. Strong volume as it surged up off the 200 day SMA (14.53) to form the right side of the base and now low volume as it works laterally in the handle. Excellent 4 to 1 accumulation in the base and money flow rallying higher even as the stock price moves laterally. Just waiting for the volume to jump back up as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 141.2K Avg Volume: 247.318K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=320K Target=$21.75 Stop=$17.05
POSITION: UOC DW - Apr. $17.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/optn.html
Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 10/05/2004
BEBE (Bebe Stores--$37.71; +0.29; optionable): Apparel stores. Splits 3:2 on 12-30-04
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bebe.html
STATUS: Flat base. Looking at some additional positions in BEBE as it works laterally over the 18 day EMA (36.67), holding on low volume as the rest of the market sold off. One of those stocks that is going about its own business as much of the market struggles. A leader that remains strong, we are looking for volume to jump as it moves out of this 5 week lateral move.
Volume: 363.912K Avg Volume: 506.954K
BUY POINT: $38.88 Volume=375K Target=$47 Stop=$36.55
POSITION: KUO CG - Mar. $35c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bebe.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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