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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Good movers Thursday: CREE; SNDA; BIIB; EBAY; NCR; RMBS
Wednesday night play results:
BIIB: Nice break higher on continued strong volume.
ISSC: Moved through the buy point late, but no volume.
NGEN: Held steady on very low volume.
QCOM: Volume jumped as it tested the 18 day EMA and rebounded. Looks ready.
New Plays:
Play Date: 12/09/2004
AAPL (Apple Computer--$63.99; +0.71; optionable): Ipods. Oh yes, computers as well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
After Hours: $64.67
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. AAPL is testing the 18 day EMA (61.83) after breaking out from a three week, very tight flying plateau in the last week of November on some strong sales of Ipods that was also leading to sales of Macintosh computers. Go figure. It was downgraded the past week on, altogether now, valuation. It has made its way back to the 18 day EMA in a very orderly fashion, moving laterally along that near support the past 5 sessions. Volume crept higher Thursday as the stock posted a modest gain off that support. Looking for another rally here to make us a nice, relative quick gain. Prefer options on this one but stock works as well.
Volume: 13.287M Avg Volume: 13.804M
BUY POINT: $64.55 Volume=15M Target=$75 Stop=$61.75
POSITION: AAQ DM - Apr. $65c (52 delta)) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
CMVT (Comverse Technology--$23.49; +0.80; optionable): Telecom processing systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmvt.html
After Hours: $23.45
STATUS: Breakout. CMVT broke out from an 11 month trading range in October, rallying up the short term MA (10 and 18 day EMA). After 4 to 5 such bounces it needs a rest. It took that rest the last three weeks of November, coming back to test the 50 day EMA (21.07). After the run up the short term MA on the breakout the 50 day EMA is the support level. CMVT found support there and is making the next breakout, moving on strong volume. Relative strength is breaking out as well, a very good corroboration of the move.
Volume: 4.202M Avg Volume: 2.73M
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=3.2M Target=$28 Stop=$22.05
POSITION: CQV DX - Apr. $22.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmvt.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
CREAF (Creative Technology--$15.5; +0.8; optionable): The other Ipod
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/creaf.html
After Hours: $15.72
STATUS: Test breakout. CREAF is surging on volume once more, the second bounce off the short term MA (this time the 10 day EMA at 14.36) as we head into the holiday season. It makes another pocket music player, and they claim it is better than the Apple version as it has a built in radio, is smaller, etc. Basically it is poaching off the Ipod, but what do we care? We will gladly let them fight it out as they both run higher ahead of the holidays. In any event, AAPL is used to this; remember Jobs giving away the farm to Gates at Microsoft? CREAF broke out from an 11 month cup with handle base in November and is surging on higher volume ever since. Looking to pick it up on the further move higher.
Volume: 3.553M Avg Volume: 285.772K
BUY POINT: $15.68 Volume=1M Target=$18.85 Stop=$14.95
POSITION: RFQ DC - Apr. $15c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/creaf.html
Play Date: 12/09/2004
LNUX (VA Software--$2.99; +0.23; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lnux.html
After Hours: $3.10
STATUS: Test breakout. LNUX exploded off the 200 day SMA (2.26) Tuesday after a nice, low volume lateral move over that level after breaking through it the last week of November. This is part of a 15 month cup base, and it is coming off of the bottom of that base, starting to build the right side of the base. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price and volume is excellent. Way down in the base, but primed to make us some solid gain.
Volume: 1.44M Avg Volume: 455.59K
BUY POINT: $3.06 Volume=683K Target=$4.25 Stop=$2.95
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lnux.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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